Plumbing

Will Astros remorse signing Jose Abreu in free company?

The Houston Astros’ offense looked unusually mediocre in April, sitting 19th in the league in OPS (.697) and 21st in home runs (27) as of Monday night. And while Houston’s mediocre production on the record is largely due to the dual absences of Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley, a spot on Dusty Baker’s daily lineup falls far short of expectations.

Enter Jose Abreu, the $58 million man currently struggling to pose a threat to opposing pitchers.

Abreu, 36, came to Houston as an offensive force over the past decade with plenty of pedigree. The Cuban slugger won the 2020 American League MVP when he hit 19 home runs for the Chicago White Sox during the 60-game season shortened by the pandemic, and he has been one of the most reliable RBIs in his career with six 100+ RBI campaigns -Sources of baseball in his career. But one of the AL’s most feared hitters is off to a slow start in 2023 as the Astros look to take the lead from AL West.

Houston’s first baseman has an ugly .267 on-base percentage with just four walks versus 27 strikeouts this season. But perhaps most worrying is the lack of performance from a player expected to feast on the short porches in both left and right field at Minute Maid Park. Abreu has yet to homer in his first 120 plate appearances in 2023 ahead of Monday’s home game against San Francisco. Of his 27 hits, 23 were singles, and of the 129 players who made 100 plate appearances this year, only White Sox infielder Elvis Andrus has a worse slugging percentage.

Abreu joined the Astros as a hitter with near-metronomic production, used as a patient but powerful bat to deepen what may be baseball’s finest lineup. Neither Abreu nor a less-healthy Astros roster have quite fulfilled that plan so far.

We should tap the pauses on any panic over Abreu’s lackluster production so far. Baker said in early April he expected a relatively slow start from Abreu after speaking to White Sox coaches during the offseason, and the metrics support Dusty’s theory. Abreu’s career 0.768 OPS prior to May 1st is approaching an impressive 0.850 in all other months.

On Sunday, Abreu noted that his swing “isn’t where I want it to be,” and both Baker and Abreu highlighted his work on his swing mechanics in the first month of the season. Abreu also pairs his ugly outside production with some solid underlying metrics, where his 32 hard-hit balls (defined as balls in play over 95 MPH) are tied with All-Stars Manny Machado and CJ Cron for a respectable No. 62’s MLB Leaderboard.

Abreu is sure to improve on the plate in the coming months. He has over a decade of data suggesting he’s one of the game’s more natural right-handers, with a penchant for quality contact and driving in runs. But as we move into May, the caution of Houston’s big offseason move — in which they gave big money to a first baseman in his late 30s — is increasingly being questioned. Maybe a new month will bring old Abreu to Minute Maid Park.

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