Tuesday’s announcement of Joe Biden’s reelection marks the start of the final campaign for the 80-year-old Democrat.
“The question we face is whether we will have more freedom or less freedom, more rights or fewer – in the coming years. I know how I want the answer,” Biden said in a video launching his reelection bid.
Biden’s decision to seek a second term also reshapes the fortunes of three 50-something Californians — Vice President Kamala Harris, Gov. Gavin Newsom, and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy — whose futures are intertwined with the president’s official declaration for 2024.
On the other hand, said Kim Nalder, a professor of political science at Sacramento State, it’s not as if Biden had any choice but to announce now.
“He had to run to announce he was running or he’d be a lame duck,” Nalder said. While there’s little chance of much major legislation being passed in a deadlocked Washington, Biden would have “even fewer opportunities to get concessions from Republicans” if he didn’t start.
Also, Biden’s potential Republican opponents have already ramped up their campaigns. An independent committee supporting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has not yet declared his candidacy, has already spent $6.2 million on radio and television advertising. According to Medium Buying’s ad trackers, an independent group supporting former President Donald Trump has spent $4.1 million.
Unlike the last time Biden ran, during this campaign he will have a day job to tend to. That means Harris will have a higher profile campaigning, as will Newsom, who has a self-proclaimed role as a Democratic tough guy who opposes red state governors, including DeSantis.
Biden will need all the help he can get from his younger allies because 70% of Americans — including 51% of Democrats — don’t think he should run for re-election, according to a new NBC News poll. Nearly half of respondents (49%) said Biden’s age was a reason they didn’t think he should run.
More potential downfall for Biden: Only 38% of voters have a positive impression of him, while 48% see him in a negative light.
The good news for Biden is that voters loathe Trump even more. Only 34% of voters view Trump, the GOP front-runner, in a positive light, compared to 53% who view him negatively.
The craziest statistic of all: only 5% of voters want to see a rematch between Biden and Trump.
Meanwhile, the three Californians will be key co-stars in the 2024 race, each with their own future in mind.
More time for a second degree
After a rocky start to her tenure as the first woman, first black and first Asian American to hold office, Harris has found her voice in recent months. Harris, 58, has become the Biden administration’s leading voice on reproductive rights – a development that began during a performance in San Francisco last August.
She was also praised for traveling to Tennessee this month to speak on behalf of black lawmakers who have been ousted from the state legislature for joining a gun control protest.
But her approval rating is almost as abysmal as Biden’s. According to FiveThirtyEight.com, an independent analytics site, only 40% of Americans agree, while 51% disagree.
She strove to make visible progress on the portfolio of difficult issues assigned to her, particularly in relation to voting rights and the root causes of illegal immigration.
However, Harris will face some challenges when it comes to polishing her credentials for her potential 2028 run. As No. 2 on the ticket, she will largely be a spokesperson for the Biden administration’s views. And those positions will follow her should she decide to run for president again.
“She is tied at the waist to the captain. It will sink or swim with the Biden administration,” said Luis Alvarado, a former California Republican adviser who recently left the GOP and is now registered as a non-party voter.
Alvarado recalled that Harris struggled in her 2020 race, branding herself a “progressive prosecutor” who had trouble convincing progressives. “The world saw them pretending to be progressive,” he said.
Biden will likely, as he did in 2020, take a more centrist tack that could appeal to some moderate Republicans repelled by Trump. The downside for Harris is that she would be tied to more moderate positions should she be challenged by progressive candidates in 2028, said Michael Ceraso, a Democratic strategist who has worked on the presidential campaigns of Barack Obama, Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg.
For Harris, “It’s going to be a tough road,” Ceraso said.
And should Biden win re-election, Ceraso said Harris will be faced almost immediately with a question that won’t go away until she answers it: “When will she announce her candidacy (for president)?”
Whether Vice President Harris would be on Biden’s re-election ticket has been an open question in Washington in recent months. His campaign video, in which she appears almost as often as he does, seems to answer that question in the affirmative.
Newsom as a super replacement — unless …
Newsom, 55, told The Chronicle he has “below zero interest” in running for president and has widely praised Biden’s first term. At the same time, he has raised his national profile since easily winning re-election to a final term as governor last fall.
His timing could be ideal. His term as governor ends in November 2026 – just in time to launch a 2028 presidential campaign a few months later.
Last month, Newsom established a federal political action committee called the Campaign for Democracy, endowed with $10 million left over from his last gubernatorial campaign. He will spend the next two years trolling red state governors — including DeSantis — for their record on LGBTQ, abortion and voting rights.
“Building a brand as a fighter is something that appeals to younger voters,” Nalder said, “and something so many Democrats are hungry for.” It makes sense for him to build this brand. And being a loyal soldier, a good team player, is also important, especially in the long run.”
Like in 2028 for example.
Newsom will also use its campaign funds to support candidates in key races across the country — and for losing Democratic candidates in red states who are overlooked by national donors. These candidates will be key to supporting Newsom should he run for president in 2028.
That super-backup job will keep Newsom in the national conversation just in case Biden fails to complete his campaign and Harris falters.
“It’s at Torpedo Bay #2,” Alvarado said. “If there’s a malfunction or series of malfunctions in the #1 torpedo bay, it’s operational.”
However, Ceraso doubts Newsom or Harris as national candidates should Biden falter.
“I don’t think any Democratic candidate from California is going to win a major presidential primary in the South in the next 10 years, regardless of who they are and what their experience is,” Ceraso said. “Newsom is pretty reactionary to the news cycle – and I don’t think Southern voters are drawn to that kind of politics. You see through that.”
McCarthy consolidates top position
Until Republicans choose a presidential nominee, McCarthy, 58, will be the face of the national GOP — the person who goes toe-to-toe with Biden in high-level negotiations over issues like raising the federal debt ceiling.
But how long? McCarthy has a tenuous hold on power at best, which could collapse if even a handful of members of the GOP house turn against him during the debt reduction process. And McCarthy’s tough debt-ceiling negotiations could result in a government shutdown that could hurt the GOP candidate. That came as then-GOP spokesman Newt Gingrich and House Republicans were blamed for a government shutdown — something that helped Bill Clinton win re-election in 1996.
“His whole quest to become a speaker makes me think about his political acumen,” Nalder said.
To gain and maintain power, McCarthy has allied himself with the most conservative and controversial Republican members. McCarthy has called Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene a “close adviser.” The same Greene who wants to defund the FBI, freeze immigration for four years, and ban abortion nationwide. In February, Greene called for “a national divorce. We need to split into red states and blue states and downsize the federal government.”
While Greene is repeating Confederate President Jefferson Davis, McCarthy will face other issues during the primary such as keeping the GOP together while remaining neutral in a fight between Trump and DeSantis or whoever emerges from the primary.
His primary mission, Alvarado said, is to continue to be one of the party’s top fundraisers.
“For every Republican candidate across the country,” Alvarado said, “that’s his job right now: He’s the top plumber. He has to make sure the operation works.”
Because there are still more than 18 months until election day.
Shira Stein, correspondent for the Chronicle Washington, contributed to this report.
Reach Joe Garofoli: jgarofoli@sfchronicle.com; Twitter: @joegarofoli
