As Jordan Hicks joins IL, how the Cardinals are reassessing his function shifting ahead

ST. LOUIS — Injury news just keep coming for the Cardinals, who are now down two starters after right-hander Jordan Hicks landed on the 15-day injured list with tightness in his right forearm flexor ahead of St. Louis’ four-game series against the first place brewers.

The good news is Hicks’ move to the IL isn’t thought to be as serious as his prior stints. Hicks first felt soreness in his throwing arm after his previous start on Tuesday. Given the 25-year-old’s extensive injury history and the timetable of the season, the organization elected for a precautionary move.

“(There) was soreness there, more so than the past,” manager Oli Marmol told The Athletic. “Hitting the pause button and not trying to push through this, this early on, makes the most sense.”

To aid the pitching depth, right-handers Kodi Whitley and Jake Woodford were recalled from Triple-A Memphis. In separate moves, right-hander Junior Fernández and catcher Iván Herrera were optioned to Memphis, and Yadier Molina was reinstated from the bereavement list.

Though it’s never timely to lose a starting pitcher to injury, the Cardinals now have a bit more of a cushion in deciding how to proceed with Hicks. The decision to stretch out the right-hander to a starter’s workload at the beginning of the season was a valid one: Hicks had always wanted to start, and the Cardinals were going to be without Jack Flaherty for at least a couple of months, leaving them with a hole to fill in the rotation. Expanded rosters in April enabled extra depth in the bullpen, allowing for the Cardinals to cover Hicks’ short starts as he progressed and built his pitch count up through the month.

However, once the calendar reached May and the Cardinals were forced to drop a pitcher, it became more difficult to cover innings. In an ideal world, Hicks would have continued progressing through May when additional pitching support wouldn’t be needed. While he was able to maximize his pitch count up to a full starter’s workload, he hadn’t been able to demonstrate the type of consistent command where it would be feasible to continue starting him. Over his last three starts, Hicks registered 77, 82 and 78 pitches, yet recorded just five innings, four innings and three innings to match. On Tuesday against the Blue Jays, Hicks struggled to command his fastball and issued four earned runs and five walks in three frames.

“When you evaluate his start and he’s throwing more balls than strikes, or it’s close to 50-50, it’s just hard for him to sustain having any sort of longevity to that,” Marmol said. “It forces us to use our bullpen, and we have several starters that have forced that.”

It’s true that Hicks’ lack of length was magnified by other members of the rotation struggling to cover innings as well. Dakota Hudson has not notched a start longer than five innings since May 3. Steven Matz (left shoulder impingement) remains on the IL and the Cardinals will rely on top pitching prospect Matthew Liberatore to take his place, but Liberatore has made just one major- league start, and the team would certainly like to save some relief arms out of caution for the day he’s scheduled.

Hicks’ future role is up to interpretation. The organization could elect to continue to start him in the rotation upon his return, or return him to a high-leverage role in the bullpen. Those conversations began before Hicks was moved to the IL and will continue to develop in his absence based on what Marmol and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak believe to best suit the club going forward.

“At the end of the day, (the decision) is going to be what’s best for the team, and then for Hicks’ development,” Marmol said. “Then you put everything together and you make a decision. Him going on the IL delays that decision, but at some point, we’re still going to have to figure out what’s best.”

Hicks’ tantalizing pitch arsenal and overpowering triple-digit velocity made him an intriguing starting candidate by nature. His sinker velocity still ranks in MLB’s 99th percentile, and that’s with him tinkering down the velocity in an attempt to last longer through games. Hicks no longer touches the mid-100s on the mound, with his median speed instead hovering around 99 mph, but he can still up the ante and rack up a couple more digits when necessary. However, the velocity isn’t as noteworthy when the command lacks, and that’s the problem that plagued Hicks over his last three starts.

Hicks was considered to be fully built up from a pitch count perspective by mid-May, but the lack of command prohibited him from establishing himself deep in games. He allowed three runs in five innings with two walks and three strikeouts on May 13 against San Francisco — a fine outing, all things considered — and it served as a start the organization believed would provide a solid foundation to build off of. Yet in his next start against the Mets, Hicks threw more balls than strikes and was pulled after four innings. On Tuesday, Hicks couldn’t establish his fastball, leaving his secondary pitches relatively ineffective.

After going through routine testing as he does after every start, Hicks felt more soreness than usual and the decision to rest him for the next two weeks was eventually made. However, Marmol said whether he would have made his next start regardless of what was already being discussed.

“We would have definitely given some serious thought to as far as what’s best for the club, our bullpen and Jordan altogether moving forward,” Marmol said. “I think he’s very clear on the fact that we need him to command the baseball and command his fastball better in order to go deeper into games so our bullpen isn’t getting the usage that they’re getting. … It was definitely something that was up for consideration, if continuing to start him or (moving to) the bullpen was the best option.”

So, what will the Cardinals take into consideration when making a decision? Hicks’ overall health will be the primary factor, especially after he missed the majority of the 2021 season with a right elbow injury. The state of the rotation will also be factored in. Matz remains four to five days from picking up a baseball and participating in throwing activities. Liberatore has a chance to prove he can stay at the big-league level in Matz’s absence. Flaherty, who checked another box in his rehab back from right shoulder bursitis by facing live hitters for the first time on Thursday, still remains at least a couple of weeks away from a rehab assignment.

There is also considerable value in slotting Hicks in the bullpen, where he would presumably be able to unleash his maximum velocity once more. Hicks isn’t necessarily a two-pitch pitcher, as he has been reworking a changeup, but the 1-2 combo of his sinker and slider, especially when the sinker is at its maximum power, profiles well as a high-leverage, late -innings poor. The Cardinals already have a dynamic relief trio in lefty Genesis Cabrera and right-handed weapons Ryan Helsley and Giovanny Gallegos. Adding Hicks to that mix would give St. Louis some of the best relief variety in the league.

At the beginning of the month, the Cardinals boasted one of the most effective bullpens in the league and at one point held the lowest team bullpen ERA in baseball. But the relievers have been taxed of late — leading to a constant reshuffling of arms from the Memphis club — and now the bullpen ERA sits at 3.66, or right around league average. The hope is the current starters can provide more length. If the Cardinals choose to slot Hicks back in the bullpen, he’ll certainly help those numbers as well.

Odds and ends

• The Cardinals have set their rotation for the rest of the weekend series against the Brewers. Hudson will start Friday against Brandon Woodruff, Liberatore will make his first career start at Busch Stadium on Saturday opposite Adrian Houser, and Miles Mikolas will take the finale on Sunday with Milwaukee’s starter to be named. St.Louis will need a starter for Monday. They expect to use Woodford out of the bullpen during the series, which would leave him unavailable for Monday. If that remains the case, plenty of options remain in Triple A for a spot start, including Packy Naughton and Johan Oviedo, who owns a 5.24 ERA over nine games for Memphis, but has allowed just one run in back-to-back starts.

• Tyler O’Neill continues to progress as he rehabs from a right shoulder impingement. The Cardinals are optimistic he can begin a rehab assignment as early as next week.

• Paul DeJong turned in a three-hit day with a home run for Memphis as the former All-Star shortstop looks to rework his swing after being demoted earlier in the month. In 11 Triple-A games, DeJong is hitting .250 with a .672 OPS and 11 strikeouts.

(Photo: Jeff Curry / USA Today)