A rainstorm makes landfall over the Bay Area on Tuesday, April 7, 2009 as the car races across the Bay Area on Tuesday, April 7, 2009 as a car speeds over the Bay Bridge.
(NEXSTAR) — Californians desperate for a break in rain will find a glimmer of hope in a new forecast released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.
The outlook for April leans toward below average rain and snow forecasts for the state.
Cool temperatures and sunshine are expected in Kern, the next rain system will move in on Monday
But don’t pack your umbrellas just yet – there are a few caveats to mention.
First off, there’s more rain in the story before we even get to April. The next 10 days are likely to be very wet as another atmospheric flow is already lurking offshore and heading our way.
(Map: NOAA)
Next week’s atmospheric flux is likely to peak on Tuesday or Wednesday, said National Weather Service meteorologist Dalton Behringer. It’s too early to say exactly which part of the state will be hardest hit, but state climatologist Michael Anderson said earlier this week that the storm’s impact zone could stretch from the Bay Area to San Diego.
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Once this storm has passed things will look a little drier as is usual for April in California. “It’s not like we’re getting into this crazy dry pattern or anything,” Behringer said. “It’s April right now, which is typically the time we would dry out, and we’re seeing that pattern shift to a drier pattern after the end of this month.”
Behringer cautioned against misinterpreting the map (below), which projects forecasts in terms of probabilities, not certainties. The forecast places a 33% to 50% chance of below average rainfall for California in April.
(Map: NOAA)
“That doesn’t mean we won’t see rain,” Behringer said. “This tells you the probability of below normal rainfall, not how much below normal rainfall. … We could still see an atmospheric flow — that doesn’t mean you can’t get those.”
Brian Garcia, a warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Bay Area office, said it could be months before we see longer stretches of dry weather.
“If we go deep into the crystal ball, we might have a few sunny days in the week of the 27th, but in all likelihood we won’t dry out until we get deep into spring and early summer,” he told Nexstar Week last .
