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This map reveals which areas of San Francisco are most progressive

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http://thevintry.com.au/product/moet-chandon-rose-imperial-750ml/ Progressive Voter Index (PVI)

Less progressive

Progressive

Based on the results of the local coordination measures from 2018 to 2020.

For decades, San Francisco’s national election results have shown a deep blue city. But new Chronicle analysis, using data from citywide elections, shows that there are indeed many shades of blue that color the city’s neighborhoods.

Using data from the San Francisco ballot papers, we calculated a score for each of the city’s constituencies – small geographic areas typically used for elections. The scores measure the relative “progressiveness” of an area, with higher scores indicating more progressive districts.

The scores show a donut pattern when assigned. The most progressive boroughs are near the city center and include neighborhoods like Haight, Mission, and Bernal Heights. As you move away from the inner core, the values ​​indicate areas of more moderate attunement, with the least advanced areas in Portola, Visitacion Valley, and near Lake Merced.

To calculate the scores, we combined the district-level results of 14 local votes from the 2018-2020 elections. We have selected the most politically divisive measures on tax, social, land use and government issues that are often at the center of the left-right debate in San Francisco. Using a technique called principal component analysis, we combined the results of the referendum into two indexes, which we then summed and scaled from 0 to 100. These values ​​form the Progressive Voter Index (PVI).

The PVI has decades of history. The results were first calculated in 1999 by the professor emeritus at San Francisco State University, Richard DeLeon. The methodology was passed on to former policy advisor David Latterman, who updated the values ​​in 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2015. For the current iteration of the Chronicle, Latterman and political researcher Alex Lantsberg helped select the 14 analyzed referendums.

The updated values ​​show a largely unchanged political landscape. According to Latterman, the same small pockets show up to be most or least progressive.

But some neighborhoods have shifted politically. The southeastern neighborhoods in particular, including Bayview Hunters Point and Visitacion Valley, have become more moderate since the PVI was last calculated in 2015.

According to experts, the PVI values ​​are mainly explained by two factors. The first is home ownership. According to political strategist Kate Maeder, the less advanced areas correlate with more single-family homes – and thus more homeowners. In contrast, neighborhoods near the geographic center, like Mission, are mostly tenants.

The second attribute that correlates with the scores is demographics, which can also explain the PVI changes in certain neighborhoods. Over the past decade, gentrification and rising housing costs have forced Asians out of the city center to the more affordable suburbs and blacks out of the city.

In 2010, about a third of Bayview Hunters Point’s residents were black. Today they make up less than a quarter – an eight percentage point decrease – and Asians make up the largest ethnic group in the neighborhood. This black brain drain and Asian immigration may explain the PVI changes at Bayview Hunters Point.

Racial and Ethnic Composition of the Neighborhoods of San Francisco

Click on a race / ethnicity to change the map. Hover your mouse over a neighborhood to view details.

Asians, black and white do not include those who identify as Hispanic American.

David Lee, executive director of the Chinese American Voters Education Committee, said Asians tend to vote more moderately than other non-white voters. He says that because of the relatively high proportion of Asian homeowners and business owners in general, this is the case for housing and small business-related issues – the Census Bureau’s 2019 estimates show that over 40% of San Francisco homeowners are Asian, and Lee estimates that Asians earn between 30 and 40% of the city’s small business owners.

But Asians are anything but conservative. When it comes to San Francisco politics, we speak of more or less progressive degrees, Lee said. For example, in the 2018 general election, Proposition C authorized the city to fund homeless services by taxing certain businesses. In the most progressive parts of the city, over 70% of residents voted in favor of passing the measure. Mostly Asian areas, however, have still passed the measure – just not as overwhelming as other districts.

But, according to Professor James Taylor of the University of San Francisco, the racial makeup of Bayview Hunters Point does not fully explain the PVI changes since blacks and Asians are not always in ideological disagreement. He points to California’s 2010 marijuana legalization proposal, which saw blacks and Asians voting the most conservative in the state.

In addition, black voters do not always side with the progressive side. The inner core of the city voted overwhelmingly against the 2018 Proposition H, which would have tased San Francisco police officers. But, according to Taylor, members of the black community supported the referendum, and the Bayview Hunters Point results reflected that sentiment.

Results of the local voting metrics in San Francisco used in the Progressive Voter Index

Click an election to view the results on the map

June 2018 – PROP C

Commercial rent tax for childcare

June 2018 – PROP E

Ban on the sale of flavored tobacco

June 2018 – PROP G

Package tax for SFUSD

June 2018 – PROP H

Taser for police officers

Nov. 2018 – PROP C

Tax on assistance to the homeless

Nov. 2019 – PROP F

Campaign Contribution Limitations

March 2020 – PROP A

City College Loan

March 2020 – PROP D

Vacancy tax

Nov. 2020 – PROP C

Member of the municipal corporation

Nov. 2020 – PROP D

Sheriff supervision

Nov. 2020 – PROP E

Police personnel

Nov. 2020 – PROP G

Youth election

Nov. 2020 – PROP I

Real estate transfer tax

Nov. 2020 – PROP L

CEO’s tax

The changing ideology of the neighborhoods can have a major impact on local politics, especially with respect to the upper boroughs. The neighborhoods that have changed the most are in District 10, which includes the progressive Dogpatch and Potrero Hill, as well as the more temperate Bayview Hunters Point and Visitacion Valley. The district is now the second least advanced district, according to its median PVI, and less advanced than District Two, which includes some of the city’s most affluent neighborhoods like Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, Russian Hill, and the Marina.

Progressive Voter Index Results by San Francisco Regulatory District and Current Overseer

Each point is a district and its Progressive Voter Index value

According to Corey Cook, a political scientist who has used the PVI to analyze years of election results, the PVI keeps showing the city’s political dynamism. Earlier iterations correlated with results from mayoral elections, most citywide votes, and overseer races.

“The PVI has been the best tool to understand what is going on in San Francisco politics,” said Cook. “It is a consistent and reliable measure of how issues are shared, the persistence of the moderately progressive divide, and residential voting behavior.”

According to political strategist Maeder, PVI values ​​can help target campaigns. A politician running in city or county races can prioritize their efforts, such as advertising and targeted mail, in areas that most closely match their ideology. “If you had limited campaign resources, you would look at a map like this and target where you want to go first,” Maeder said.

But Latterman cautions that the results are not always perfectly predictable. While they often correlate with citywide election results, they are best for understanding the past, not the future, and the district chairman’s ideology does not always align with their voters.

“People often comment that candidates do not fit into the district because their ideological position does not fit the composition of a district, but there is much more to winning an election than a candidate’s ideology. You still need to have a vision, have good policy ideas, run a good campaign, ”Latterman said. “Nobody should decide to run because they compare their ideology with the PVI values ​​of their district.”

Progressive Voter Index Results for San Francisco Districts

The link to download the data can be found below the table

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