San Francisco has been having a tough decade so far. As of a year ago (the most recent numbers available from the Census Bureau), its estimated population was down 7.5% from April 2020, the sharpest drop of any US city over that period. Downtown activity, as measured from mobile phone use, was 68% below pre-pandemic levels as of this spring, again the biggest decline among American cities. Downtown commercial real estate values have fallen by as much as 80%, with owners of several big properties simply walking away rather than continuing with loan payments.
With the city — or at least some areas near downtown — also becoming a byword for crime and disorder, it’s probably inevitable that some have begun labeling San Francisco the next Detroit. Detroit is the great case study in American urban decline, losing population every decade since 1950 and going from the country’s most affluent large city in 1949 to one of the poorest. San Francisco is now the country’s most affluent large city, or at least was a couple of years ago. Its population has started to fall. Could history be about to repeat itself?
