San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction
The San Francisco Giants (58-33) finish their three games in the Busch Stadium with the St. Louis Cardinals (45-47) Sunday. The first pitch is scheduled for 2:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines of BetMGM Sportsbook around the Giants vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
St. Louis took the win on Saturday, 3-1, on the evening of the set, after San Francisco won the first meeting 7-2 on Friday.
Season series: Cardinals lead 3-2.
RHP Johnny Cueto is San Francisco’s scheduled starter. Cueto is 6-5 with 4.15 ERA (78 IP, 36 ER), 1.33 WHIP, 1.7 BB / 9 and 7.5 K / 9 over 14 starts.
- Last game: Loss, 6-5, with 6 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 1 BB and 7 K on July 6th against St. Louis.
- vs. Cardinals in the current roster: 177 at bats with a .254 / .318 / .469 slash line, 38/12 K / BB, 9 HR and 27 RBIs.
LHP Wade LeBlanc takes the hill for the cardinals. LeBlanc is 0-2 with 4.78 ERA (26 1/3 IP, 14 ER), 1.52 WHIP, 3.1 BB / 9 and 5.5 K / 9 over four starts and nine relief appearances.
- Last outing: Loss, 10-5, with 3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, and 1 K on July 9 with the Chicago Cubs.
- LeBlanc’s pitching peripherals this season are terrible; He rates in the 21st percentile or worse for the hard hit rate, the expected WOBA, the expected slugging percentage, K% and the whiff rate.
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Giants at Cardinals odds, lines, tips and predictions
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; Visit USA TODAY Sports for a full list. The odds were last updated at 9:19 PM ET.
- Money line: Giants -130 (bet $ 130 to win $ 100) | Cardinals +105 (wager $ 100 to win $ 105)
- Against spread / ATS: Giants -1.5 (+125) | Cardinals +1.5 (-155)
- Over under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
forecast
Giants 4, Cardinals 3
Money line (ML)
GIVE ME the GIANTS (-130) for 1 unit because they have an advantage in both start and relief pitching, hit left-handers better than the Cardinals right-handers and there were “sharp” line movements towards San Francisco.
For example, the Giants Hitters rank 11th or better compared to left-handed pitching in advanced hitting metrics like wRC +, wOBA, BB / K, and OPS, while the Cardinals Batters sit in the bottom 10 vs. righties on each of these stats.
Additionally, the San Francisco bullpen is pretty mediocre, but St. Louis ranks last on xFIP, SIERA, and K-BB%.
Eventually, the market is hammering the San Francisco money line, which has resulted in the quota makers raising the Giants’ price by 20 cents against the dollar from the opening price due to their liability to pro-San Francisco action.
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Tread Line / Against the Spread (ATS)
CONSIST because the Cardinals -1.5 (+125) isn’t big enough for me, especially when we get to the party late on the San Francisco money line.
Over / Under (O / U)
Light “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-110) for a third of the unit – if any – because I prefer the San Francisco money line rather than the grand total.
However, there is one suspected “line stop” in the betting market where more than 80% of the money wagered on the total bet is on the over (according to Pregame.com), but the line has not moved.
When we see unilateral action in the betting market, the house usually raises the price of the more popular side so the overall move is alarming despite strong action on the over.
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