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San Francisco could also be first main US metropolis to hit herd immunity, specialists say | San Francisco

San Francisco may be the first major American city to achieve herd immunity to the coronavirus, experts say.

San Francisco is still recording a low number of coronavirus cases, around 13.7 per day, said Dr. George Rutherford, professor of epidemiology at the University of California at San Francisco, but they don’t seem to be getting enough foothold in the population to cause major outbreaks.

“This is what herd immunity looks like,” said Rutherford. “You will have isolated cases, but they will not spread.”

Health officials still disagree on what percentage of the population needs to be immune to Covid-19 in order to achieve the much-touted “herd immunity” status when so many people have antibodies to the virus that it is not far about the virus can spread community.

Throughout the pandemic, vaccination goals to achieve herd immunity have been a moving goal, according to a briefing from the Yale School of Medicine, with experts initially estimating that if 60 to 70% of the population were immune, the virus would be difficult to spread . With multiple variants floating around, some of which are more contagious, estimates are rising. Many experts now estimate that herd immunity is achieved when 80 to 90 percent of the residents are vaccinated.

San Francisco was close to that goal. Nearly 80% of San Francisco residents eligible for the coronavirus vaccine have had at least one vaccination, and 68% are fully vaccinated, according to the city health department. Among the total population, Asians and Pacific islanders have vaccination rates even higher than the city average, statistics show, while the black population lags behind by about 16 percentage points.

Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, a UCSF deputy dean specializing in infectious diseases, believes San Francisco already has enough residents with antibodies, considering those who have received immunity from the coronavirus to achieve herd immunity. But he said the virus is unlikely to ever go away completely in the US.

“I hope people still go out and get vaccinated and not rest on their laurels,” he said. “The virus will always be something to think about.”

San Francisco has several advantages in its pursuit of herd immunity, noted Rutherford. The city has few children compared to other places, so a larger percentage of residents are eligible for the vaccine. The population was thrilled with following the Covid safety measures and finding the vaccine. And it has compact geography with a dense community spanning 47 square miles that has allowed teams of health workers to go door-to-door to reach closings and others who may be struggling to get vaccinated.

“San Francisco has developed a national model for equitable distribution of vaccines,” said Mary Ellen Carroll, director of the San Francisco Department of Emergency Management, in a statement announcing the program last month. “The door-to-door vaccine and delivering this life-saving service to the elderly and the disabled who are at home will help get San Francisco through the last mile of our vaccination program.”

Chin-Hong noted that the city’s history of being at the forefront of the fight against the AIDS virus may also have instilled a confidence in health policies that other regions lack.

“San Francisco has a long history of openness and integration of academics and public health into its community and politics,” he said. “Northern California was very pro-vaccine and wearing masks was popular here too.”

A handful of counties across the country have even higher vaccination rates than San Francisco. This includes Hamilton County, New York, where 75% of eligible residents were fully vaccinated, according to an analysis of data maintained by the New York Times. But none of these counties is home to a major city.

The state of California preparing to meet most of its Covid restrictions on 15th Angeles Times. The state has one of the highest vaccination rates in the country, but it still lags behind 11 states, including Vermont, Massachusetts, and Hawaii.

However, Chin-Hong said the fact that California also had a major Covid-19 outbreak this winter means the number of immunized residents in the state is particularly high.

“California is something like the Covid-Safehouse of the United States at the moment,” he said. “If you look at the burden of disease, this is one of the safest places.”

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