Odd-year Giants? What’s new and what’s not about San Francisco’s surge [Video]

It’s not deja vu. For the second time in three years, all is going well for the largely unnoticed San Francisco Giants.

They are 13-4 in June before Thursday night’s start and are on a high level with two straight walk-off wins against the star-studded but disappointing San Diego Padres. And it’s not just the Padres they’re outstripping. Since May 15, they’ve changed their season, going from 18-23 to 42-32 and overtaking the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West.

They’re still trailing behind the Arizona Diamondbacks, but this Giants team — who lost to Aaron Judge in the offseason and pulled out of a deal with Carlos Correa — is running without national headlines. In doing so, they inevitably commemorate the 2021 team that shocked the baseball world with 107 wins.

In keeping with the Giants’ even-year magic in the 2010s, the Athletics’ Grant Brisbee has helpfully dubbed their burgeoning 2020s pattern “odd-year poppycock.”

To what extent is the team’s rise to the top of the table from 2023 a continuation of 2021? Is the book about this fascinating, seemingly ephemeral team still open? Or is that a whole new story? Let’s break it down.

The Giants’ LaMonte Wade Jr. has been a fixture on the basepath this season. (Benny Sieu/USA TODAY Sports)

Mostly New: The top of the lineup

Most days, the Giants have started 2021 with an unexpected reveal that acts as a neat avatar for the team. LaMonte Wade Jr., who was removed from the lineup Tuesday due to a side issue, rose to fame in this magical campaign two years ago for his uncanny exploits, earning him the nickname “Late Night LaMonte.”

After falling to Earth in 2022 (.207/.305/.359 in 77 injury-paused games), Wade is preparing for a career year with the elite plate skills that undoubtedly caught the Giants’ attention as they turned over the relief pitcher Shaun Anderson joined the Minnesota Twins in February 2021. A 17.3% walk rate and 18% strikeout rate is a recipe for success, and in fact, Wade has the second best on-base percentage in MLB.

So he’s the same person, but not the same hitter. Nothing is the same behind him. Where he opened two years ago to a steady lineup of veterans — Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Darin Ruf, and finally Kris Bryant — Wade has graced more late-blooming contemporaries and newcomers this year.

The Giants’ best all-around position player now is Thairo Estrada, a 27-year-old midfielder who has recovered from injuries sustained in a 2018 shooting in his native Venezuela. Estrada, who rose through the New York Yankees system, had limited playing time in 2021 but established himself as a starter last season. That year he hits .280 with nine home runs and 17 steals. He also plays such a dynamic second base that Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric ranks him among the top 10 most valuable defenders in MLB.

Behind Estrada, the Giants have fielded a combination of early-30s boppers Joc Pederson, Michael Conforto and JD Davis, all of whom have joined in the last two years.

Not exactly new: lots of left-handed power

Pederson and Conforto, along with Wade and Mike Yastrzemski – Monday night’s splashy hero – are at the core of a conspicuous left-hander penchant for the Giants. Given the likelihood of facing a right-handed pitcher, left-heavy lineups can have some advantages.

The 2021 roster hit MLB’s best 116 with 116 left-handed homers against right-handed pitchers, and this team is following a similar path to success. They have 46 left-versus-right home runs and a top 10 offense (by the park-adjusted wRC+ metric) against right-handers.

On the rarer occasions to come up against a southpaw, manager Gabe Kapler is quick to pinch and flip his side to bring in left-hander Wilmer Flores and perhaps promote right-hander Davis, who was a standout upset in a robbery Deals with the New York Mets last summer.

Brand new: Homegrown Talent… from the 2020s

The biggest change you’ll notice using these Giants? The new faces. Two seasons after setting baseball’s oldest lineup at an average age of 30.6, a new breed of homegrown talent with no connection to the 2012 or 2014 World Series is beginning to emerge around lone remnant Brandon Crawford.

24-year-old Patrick Bailey has prevailed as a catcher while Casey Schmitt is finding his time in the infield.

Perhaps most excitingly, 21-year-old outfielder Luis Matos, who is quick and outgoing, joined us last week when new signing Mitch Haniger was out with a long-term arm injury. In six games so far, Matos – who hit .398 in the triple-A – has hit nine runs and hit exactly one strikeout.

Not new: heavy sinkers, sliders and splitters on the rotation

A new star in 2021, Logan Webb has since solidified his stature, signing a five-year, $90 million contract extension beginning in 2024. His park-adjusted ERA this season is 73, which means he was 27% better than the league average. Last season it was 73. In 2021 it was 74.

Alex Cobb stepped in behind him to confidently fill the role of “Kevin Gausman 2021”. Cobb had just hit the IL with a slash, but had pitched a terrific 3.09 ERA that season while using the same potent dose of the same pitch Gausman used: the splitter.

Slider-heavy starter Anthony DeSclafani is also back after a losing season in 2022, delivering solid if unspectacular innings for a team that still has questions to answer at the end of this rotation.

Camilo Doval started Thursday with 19 saves, the second-most among National League scorers. He finished the 2022 season with 27 saves. (Photo by Suzanna Mitchell/San Francisco Giants/Getty Images)

Not new: A dominant bullpen

The 2021 team had the best bullpen in baseball, and the 2023 team is aiming for a similar result. As of May 1, the current bullpen has been untouchable and boasts a 2.39 ERA, which is 44% better than the MLB average over the period, according to the ERA.

That starts with Camilo Doval, the closer with a 1.93 ERA and a near 34% strikeout rate. San Francisco is preparing Doval by getting the best out of not one, but both Rogers twins — submerging right-hander Tyler (1.56 ERA) and more conventional left-hander Taylor (2.88 ERA).

Stumbling blocks and injury problems at new signings Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling have led Kapler to come up with some less-traditional pitching plans, but it’s working. He fielded veteran starter Alex Wood in a recent 15-0 win over the bullpen-needy Dodgers, then turned to 26-year-old rookie Tristan Beck for an extremely rare four-inning save. In a win against the Dodgers the day before, Kapler had fielded opener John Brebbia, then another reliever after him, then white-knuckled through 3 2/3 innings from Manaea and went home a win in 11 innings with eight pitchers total brought, only two of which allowed a run.

That’s how it ended up going for the Giants. And while some of that excellent timing won’t last, we’ve seen enough of this Giants formula to wonder exactly how far they can take it.