the New York Mets (28-15) begin a 3-game series with the San Francisco Giants (22-18) Monday at Oracle Park with the first pitch scheduled for 9:45 pm ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.
NY won the rubber match of a 3-game set at the Colorado Rockies 2-0 Sunday and is 6-4 straight up (SU) in its last 10 games.
San Francisco has lost 4 consecutive games, which includes a 3-game sweep at home against the San Diego Padres this past weekend. The Giants are just 4-6 SU in their last 10.
Season Series: NY leads 3-1 and the Mets have a plus-4 run differential in those meetings.
Mets at Giants projected starters
LHP David Peterson vs RHP Alex Cobb
Peterson is 1-0 with a 1.89 ERA (19 IP, 4 ER), 13 H, 1 HR, 8 BB and 16 K in 3 starts and 1 relief appearance.
- Last start: Win, 5-4, May 3 at home vs. the Atlanta Braves with 5 IP, 3 ER (4 R), 4 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 6 K.
Cobb is 3-1 with a 5.61 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 11.9 K/9 in 25 2/3 IP over 6 starts.
- Last start: Win, 10-7, Tuesday at the Colorado Rockies with 5 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 10 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 4 K.
- 2022 vs. the Mets: No-decision in a 5-4 loss at New York April 19 with 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER (4 R), 6 H, 0 BB and 4 K.
- vs. Mets on the current roster: 1.94 FIP with a .221/.236/.326 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 30.6 K% and 82.8 mph exit velocity (EV ) in 49 plate appearances (PA).
Mets at Giants odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:20pm ET.
- Money line (ML): Mets +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Giants -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-180) | Giants -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
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Mets at Giants picks and predictions
Giants 4, Mets 2
BET the GIANTS (-145) because Cobb’s stuff has been elite this season and there’s reverse line movement (RLM) headed towards San Francisco in the betting market.
Cobb grades in the 92nd percentile or better in chase rate, barrel rate, xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, hard-hit rate and EV and he has the third-best barrel rate per PA in the MLB (minimum of 50 batted balls) , via Statcast. His pitching peripherals against active Mets hitters are also stellar.
Tipico Sportsbook says that more than 85% of the cash is on the Mets but the Giants opened as -125 favorites (per Pregame.com). RLM is suspicious because conventional wisdom says the oddsmakers should be moving the price according to how the market is betting.
BET the GIANTS (-145).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASSPORT with a “lean” to the Giants -1.5 (+145) because this is a chunky payout.
However, San Francisco is just 6-14 RL as a home favorite and New York +1.5 (-180) are 4-0 RL as a road underdog so even the Giants -1.5 (+145) isn’t steep enough.
Light LEAN to the OVER 7.5 (-120) for a bunch of trendy reasons.
Mets-Giants is 2-7-1 O/U in their last 10 meetings, NY is 2-1-1 O/U as a road underdog, San Francisco is 12-8 O/U as a home favorite and these teams have a combined 7-2 O/U when these starters take the mound.
Oracle Park also has an above-average park factor and the weather forecast is predicting double-digit mph winds blowing out to right-centerfield.
San Francisco’s ML is my favorite wager in this game but there’s some value in the OVER 7.5 (-120).
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