NCAA event bracket projection: Transferring day for bubble groups
Those two, plus Colgate’s Patriot League final defeat of Navy, are the most relevant developments from Wednesday. The schedule expands considerably Thursday, and here’s what to look for as the fates of several more teams will be sorted out.
Michigan vs. Indiana (Big Ten second round, 11:30 am, Big Ten Network): Juwan Howard returns to Michigan’s bench from suspension as the Wolverines (17-13) look to break out of a rut that’s seen them alternate wins and losses for the last nine games. Indiana (18-12) wishes it suffered from that inconsistency; the Hoosiers have dropped seven of nine since the calendar flipped to February.
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Bracket impact: Michigan’s probably safely in, but a victory means the Wolverines probably don’t have to fret about the slightest chance of getting sent to a play-in game. The Hoosiers’ slim at-large hopes will end with a loss.
Florida vs. Texas A&M (SEC second round, noon, SEC Network): Florida (19-12) has done just enough to hang around the at-large conversation, beating the teams they’re supposed to (7-1 against teams below .500 in SEC) and losing to nearly everyone of substance in the league (other than a Feb. 19 defeat of Auburn). Texas A&M (20-11) is super-streaky, having started 15-2 before dropping nine of 10 and now winning four in a row. These are the only real borderline SEC teams this season.
Bracket impact: Loser is off to the NIT, while the winner gets a shot at Auburn on Friday.
Creighton vs. Marquette (Big East quarterfinal, approx. 2:30, Fox Sports 1): Those who believe the NET ranking is an end-all, be-all probably think Creighton (20-10) could use a victory or two this week. The Bluejays, No. 66 in the NET, should be good to go regardless thanks to a 5-5 mark in Quadrant 1 games. Their inclusion here is merely in the name of thoroughness.
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Bracket impact: Both teams are probably going to land between the 7 and 10 lines when seedings come out Sunday. The winner will have a shot at getting to the ceiling of that range.
Miami vs. Boston College (ACC quarterfinal, approx. 2:30, ESPN2): Miami is in the same category as Creighton. Its NET ranking isn’t great (61st), but it is 4-1 in Quadrant 1 games and has 10 true road victories — more than any other power conference team.
The diagnosis here is the Hurricanes (22-9) are safe regardless of whether they beat ACC spoiler Boston College. But just in case, it wouldn’t hurt to do what Wake Forest couldn’t and bring the Eagles’ season to an end.
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Bracket impact: Miami won’t get helped much, if at all, with a victory. But a loss means the Canes will be discussed as a borderline team for the next few days even if that shouldn’t be the case.
Colorado vs. Oregon (Pac-12 quarterfinal, approx. 5:30, Pac-12 Network): Fourth-seeded Colorado (20-10) has won seven of its last eight, including an upset of Arizona, to close in on the fringe of the at-large conversation. Fifth-seeded Oregon (19-13) disposed of Oregon State in Wednesday’s first round and is in a similar situation as the Buffaloes: In dire need of victories.
Bracket impact: Both teams still need multiple victories in the Pac-12 tournament to make a compelling at-large case. Consider this elimination game for NCAA purposes, much like Florida-Texas A&M.
Wyoming vs. UNLV (Mountain West quarterfinal, approx. 5:30, CBS Sports Network): The wackiest conference tournament this week might be the Mountain West’s, which has three near-certain NCAA teams, and three or four others (depending on how you feel about Nevada) capable of making life miserable for anyone in the league.
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Smack dab in the middle is Wyoming (24-7), which dropped four of its last seven to find itself right at the edge of the field. The Cowboys are 4-4 in Quadrant 1 games and 6-1 in Quad 2, but they have only two victories over likely NCAA tournament teams (Boise State and Colorado State at home). A multiday stay in Las Vegas is advised, and that starts by beating UNLV on its home floor.
Bracket impact: Unless it wins the Mountain West, Wyoming is going to be one of the borderline teams everyone is talking about right through Sunday evening. It’s not rocket science: The further the Cowboys get this week, the better their chances.
North Texas vs. Rice (Conference USA Quarterfinal, 6:30, Stadium): The defending Conference USA champs and this year’s top seed, North Texas has a decent profile — 9-1 on the road, 23-5 overall, a 5- 2 mark in quadrant 2 games. There’s only one problem: There just isn’t much heft at the top of the Mean Green’s resume besides a victory at fringe at-large candidate UAB. (The same can be said of UAB, which won at North Texas and Saint Louis but also had a few more questionable losses than the Mean Green).
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Bracket impact: There are some intriguing teams in C-USA, with North Texas, UAB and Louisiana Tech chief among them. It’s highly unlikely any of them can land an at-large berth.
Oklahoma vs. Baylor (Big 12 quarterfinal, 7, ESPN): Largely forgotten about as it sunk to .500, Oklahoma (17-14) enters the Big 12 tournament on a three-game winning streak. Granted, beating Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Kansas State doesn’t help much this season. But the Sooners might get some extra attention if they get on a run in Kansas City.
Bracket impact: Baylor could fall off the No. 1 line with a loss. Oklahoma has more than a game’s worth of work to do to get itself firmly in the at-large conversation.
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Bracket impact: The Hokies are more of a predictive metrics darling than anything else, but there’s no doubt a victory over the Irish improves their standing and inches them closer to the edge of the field.
Washington State vs. UCLA (Pac-12 quarterfinals, 9, Pac-12 Network): Washington State (19-13) beat California on Wednesday, which does little for the seventh-seeded Cougars’ biggest problem: A complete dearth of Quadrant 1 victories. Beating UCLA would change that.
Bracket impact: Think of Washington State as Virginia Tech Lite. A victory over the Bruins would help, while a loss effectively ends what slim chance there is of reaching the field of 68.
Last four included: VCU, Rutgers, Xavier, Wyoming
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First four on the outside: BYU, Wake Forest, Florida, Dayton
Next four on the outside: Oklahoma, Indiana, Texas A&M, Oregon
Moving to: Saint Peter’s, Wyoming
Moving out: Iona, Wake Forest
Conference call: Big Ten (8), Big East (7), Big 12 (6), SEC (6), ACC (4), Mountain West (4), American Athletic (3), Pac-12 (3), West Coast (3), Atlantic 10 (2)
West vs East, South vs Midwest
(1) WEST COAST/Gonzaga vs. (16) BIG WEST/Long Beach State
(8) Seton Hall vs. (9) San Diego State
(5) LSU vs. (12) SUMMIT/South Dakota State
(4) Texas Tech vs. (13) SOUTHERN/Chattanooga
(3) Tennessee vs. (14) IVY/Princeton
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(6) Iowa vs. (11) MISSOURI VALLEY/Loyola Chicago
(7) OHIO VALLEY/Murray State vs. (10) Creighton
(2) ACC/Duke vs. (15) ATLANTIC SUN/Jacksonville
It will fly under the radar among the other tournaments in the Las Vegas area, but the Big West tournament (featuring top seed Long Beach State) has a chance to be especially wacky. Nobody got to 20 wins. Only UC Irvine didn’t lose 10 games (and the Anteaters dropped nine). Six teams finished within three games of the league lead. … LSU’s defeat of Alabama to close the regular season was its first over a likely tournament team in eight weeks. The Tigers started 15-1, and have gone 6-9 since. …
If Iowa can get past Northwestern on Thursday, it actually has a reasonably decent draw in the Big Ten tournament even if didn’t beat its likely opponents in the regular season. The Hawkeyes lost 48-46 at Rutgers, whom they would play in the quarterfinals, and they have losses by four points and two points against possible semifinal foe Illinois. … Coach K’s final ACC tournament run begins Thursday as Duke meets Syracuse, which will play without suspended guard Buddy Boeheim.
(1) PAC-12/Arizona vs. (16) NORTHEAST/Bryant-HORIZON/Northern Kentucky winner
(8) Michigan State vs. (9) Iowa State
(5) Alabama vs. (12) CONFERENCE USA/North Texas
(4) BIG EAST/Providence vs. (13) MID-AMERICAN/Toledo
(3) BIG TEN/Illinois vs. (14) METRO ATLANTIC/Saint Peter’s
(6) Texas vs. (11) San Francisco
(7) Colorado State vs. (10) Miami
(2) SEC/Auburn vs. (15) SUN BELT/Georgia State
Arizona opens Pac-12 tournament play Thursday against Stanford, which uncorked a 16-1 run in the final three minutes to edge Arizona State on James Keefe’s buzzer beater. … Is Providence going to be a little rusty in the Big East tournament? It’s a fair question for the Friars, who haven’t played in nine days. They’ll face Butler in Thursday’s quarterfinals. …
Saint Peter’s is the top remaining seed in the Metro Atlantic tournament after Rick Pitino-led Iona lost to Rider in Wednesday’s quarterfinals. Pitino will instead take a team into the NIT for the first time since Louisville reached the semis in the event in 2006. … It won’t impact the composition of the field, but Colorado State’s matchup with Utah State could be one of the day’s best games. The Rams’ David Roddy and Utah State’s Justin Bean — the respective power forwards in the game — rank in the top 10 in the Mountain West in scoring.
(1) BIG 12/Baylor vs. (16) SWAC/Alcorn State-SOUTHLAND/Nicholls State winner
(8) Marquette vs. (9) Notre Dame
(5) AMERICAN ATHLETIC/Houston vs. (12) Xavier-Wyoming winner
(4) Arkansas vs. (13) AMERICA EAST/Vermont
(3) Villanova vs (14) PATRIOT/Colgate
(6) Southern California vs. (11) Michigan
(7) MOUNTAIN WEST/Boise State vs. (10) TCU
(2) Purdue vs. (15) BIG SOUTH/Longwood
It was 20 years and five coaches ago that Alcorn State last made the NCAA tournament. The SWAC’s top seed nearly got bounced in the quarterfinals Wednesday, but the Braves rallied past Prairie View A&M to win in overtime. … Xavier looks much, much better on paper than it does on the court. The Musketeers swept Creighton and beat Connecticut, Marquette and Ohio State. That’s probably enough to get them a ticket to at least Dayton, but Xavier will have no one but himself to blame if it winds up in the NIT. In their last 10 games, the Musketeers went 2-8 and lost to St. John’s (twice by double digits), Butler and DePaul.
Colgate turned back a second-half rally from Navy to win its third Patriot League tournament in the last four years. The Raiders (23-11) will make their fifth all-time NCAA trip and have won 15 in a row and 19 of 20 since a 4-10 start. They have a chance to match last year’s accomplishment of a No. 14 seeds. … Losses by teams such as Wake Forest and Xavier only increases the cushion for Michigan, which has plenty of daylight between itself and the edge of the field.
(1) Kansas vs. (16) MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC/Norfolk State
(8) North Carolina vs. (9) Memphis
(5) Connecticut vs. (12) Rutgers/VCU winner
(4) UCLA vs. (13) WESTERN ATHLETIC/New Mexico State
(3) Wisconsin vs. (14) BIG SKY/Montana State
(6) Saint Mary’s vs. (11) SMU
(7) Ohio State vs. (10) ATLANTIC 10/Davidson
(2) Kentucky vs. (15) COLONIAL/UNC Wilmington
North Carolina has won 11 of its last 13 and hasn’t lost away from Chapel Hill since Jan. 22. The Tar Heels begin their ACC tournament Thursday against Virginia. … The top six seeds are still alive in the WAC, where New Mexico State owns the best overall record (24-6) but everyone left in the field has at least 19 victories. The WAC’s raid of the Southland, which notably brought Abilene Christian, Sam Houston State and Stephen F. Austin into the fold, made it a dramatically better basketball league this season. …
SMU moves out of play-in territory and onto the No. 11 lines. The Mustangs beat Houston at home and swept Memphis during the regular season, and would be well-served not to lose to anyone in the American Athletic tournament other than one of those two. … Ohio State lost three out of four in an eight-day span to close the regular season, including stumbles against Maryland and Nebraska. The Buckeyes could use something to feel good about coming out of the Big Ten tournament, even if it is beating a Penn State bunch that similarly struggled down the stretch.
