Local weather change be damned. Extra People are shifting to high-risk areas

But today, as she wants to move again with her husband, her requirements have changed.

“It’s a fundamentally different wish list. A place where we have [running] Water where we’re not … pack bags in case fire evacuates us, “said Nichols.

In recent years, says Nichols, California wildfires and poor air quality have made life there unattractive – and downright scary.

But she says almost everywhere she plans to move there is some element of climate risk. And new analysis from Redfin, a real estate agent, shows that more Americans are moving to areas with the highest climate risks than ever before.

Redfin analyzed data from ClimateCheck, a provider of climate risk assessments for real estate, and the US Census that showed that of the 50 largest US counties exposed to climate risks from heat, storms, drought, floods and fire, the majority are growing in population recorded over the past five years.

In counties with houses that are at the highest risk of heat, the population has increased by an average of 4.7% over the past five years. Counties with homes at high risk of drought saw population growth of 3.5% over the past five years, fire-prone counties 3%, floods 1.9% and storms 0.4%.

In the meantime, places with relatively low climate risks have seen population decline. For example, the 50 counties with the fewest number of homes at risk of heat saw a 1.4% population loss over the past five years, according to Redfin.

Counties around New York City and Chicago – both in states which the US already led in population decline – only lost more people during the pandemic than home buyers left metropolitan areas in exodus, according to Redfin.

“Counterintuitively, people are moving to places with a higher climate risk,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. “And it seems like although the climate is something people care about, it is bottom of the list or not a top priority.”

For example, migration to Wasatch County, Utah, just outside of Salt Lake City, has increased nearly 15% over the past five years. But wasatch County has the third highest fire risk in the US, according to Redfin, with 96% of homes there being at risk. The area became even more popular last year amid the pandemic as people sought affordability, more space, and closeness to nature.

“2020 saw some of the worst wildfires we’ve ever seen in Utah,” said Ryan Aycock, agent and market manager for Redfin in Salt Lake City. “I don’t necessarily think it will slow the people moving to the area. It’s still extremely affordable. It’s still a very desirable place to live compared to many other places.”

Affordability seems to be a big factor. Of the 50 counties with the highest proportion of homes exposed to high heat and storm risk, more than half had average sales prices below the national average of $ 315,000, Redfin found.

“Nothing will scare you off”

Williamson County, Texas – part of the Austin metropolitan area – has the highest heat risk in the US, but is the county with the highest population growth rate at 16.3% since 2016, according to Redfin.

“Most of the people live in San Francisco or New York because that’s where they can make the most of their careers, but now Austin is starting to rise as a tech hub and Austin is at climate risk,” Fairweather said.

It’s also where people buy their second homes – followed by Florida, where home buyers benefit from lower taxes, said Scott Durkin, CEO of Douglas Elliman.

“I think people keep betting [climate risk] in the back of my mind. I think there are people who do anything to be by the ocean and the Florida coast and nothing, nothing will put them off, “Durkin said.

And that despite a record-breaking hurricane season last year. And the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a 60 percent chance of an above-average hurricane season again this year, with Florida often being a destination.

Still, real estate sales in Palm Beach and Miami have increased 270% and 133%, respectively, since last year, according to Douglas Elliman.

During the blazing housing market fueled by a pandemic, Durkin said many buyers waived home inspections in an attempt to beat other buyers. In temperate climates, however Durkin advises against it.

“When you have something that has the elements of heavy weather, or … exposed to high winds and breaking waves and beach erosion, you really need to think twice. You might even want to negotiate the inspection along the way ahead of you, just so that you know for yourself, “said Durkin.

Nichols wants to be out of her Los Angeles home in a few months.

“It is no longer the question of ‘Where do we want to live?’ The question has become: ‘Where can we live in relation to what is climatically happening there?’ “Said Nichols.