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Is there nonetheless an opportunity of rain in San Francisco Bay Space?

The heavy fog that persisted across the San Francisco Bay Area for days has finally lifted, and Tuesday marks the start of warmer weather and sunnier skies with temperatures in the mid-80s to low 90s. But keep your jacket handy as temperatures are expected to drop over the weekend, and there’s even a chance of rain along with some desiccating offshore winds.

On Tuesday morning, the National Weather Service said there’s a 20% to 30% chance the Bay Area could see light rain.

In the first half of October, the Bay Area saw an extended spell of thick summer-like fog that blanketed the coast most mornings and pushed into inland valleys many days. The marine layer persisted for about two weeks, bringing unseasonably cooler weather and also reducing the risk of wildfires at a time of year when destructive blazes are common.

On Tuesday, temperatures are expected to start climbing as high pressure associated with warming builds; inland areas could get into the low 80s and coastal spots the mid-70s. Wednesday is expected to be the hottest day of the week with afternoon highs in coastal areas in the 70s and inland valleys in the 80s, according to the weather service. The hottest spots could get into the 90s. Thursday is expected to be slightly cooler than Wednesday.

“We’re definitely looking at a warm-up this week as temperatures get above normal in mid-week, at least 10 to 15 degrees above normal,” said Rick Canepa, a forecaster with the weather service.

After midweek heat (mid 80s to low 90s) across the interior, be on the lookout for rain this weekend. There’s roughly a 20-30% chance we’ll see a few hundredths of rain this weekend for much of the #BayArea and #CentralCA. #cawx pic.twitter.com/egoLmGl8qR

— NWS Bay Area 🌉 (@NWSBayArea) October 18, 2022

Friday is forecast to bring another shift in the weather as a cold system from the Pacific Northwest pushes into California, Canepa said.

Canepa said there’s a chance of spotty showers across the San Francisco Bay Area this weekend, especially on Saturday morning, but the system will likely have mostly dried out by the time it hits the region.

“It’s mainly going to affect the Pacific Northwest and far Northern California,” Canepa said. “It’s not looking like the rain in the Bay Area would amount to much, a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch. I’d say there’s a very slight chance to a chance of rain. That’s definitely subject to change.”

The weather service released rainfall probabilities for locations across the Bay Area this weekend. In San Jose and Livermore, there’s a 32% chance of 0.01 inch, while in Santa Rosa there’s a 24% chance of 0.01 inch.

As the system exits the region on Saturday, it could kick up some offshore winds Sunday into Monday. These desiccating winds are common in September and October and are known for fanning wildfire flames. Canepa said strong widespread offshore winds that would trigger a red flag warning due to high wildfire risk are unlikely. Coastal areas and the hills of the North Bay and East Bay are most likely to see the breezy conditions.

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