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ESPN FPI likes San Francisco 49ers

It’s hard to find many good things about the 49ers’ offseason. Not that it’s been a bad few months for them, they just haven’t made any major moves aside from the addition of defensive tackle Javon Hargrave. Instead, the focus on San Francisco since the season ended in January has been the lack of clarity under the middle. They didn’t do much in the draft either, in part because they lacked quality draft capital.

While the 49ers haven’t had great news during the offseason, they’re still one of the top three favorites to win the Super Bowl, according to ESPN analysis guru Seth Walder.

Walder published an article on ESPN with the network’s Football Power Index rankings for 2023. Here is his statement on the FPI:

For the uninitiated, the Football Power Index — commonly referred to as the FPI — is our NFL team scoring and forecasting model. In preseason, the model’s prediction ratings are largely based on Caesars Sportsbook’s overall win count and fixture strength, as well as factors such as past team performance and returning starters. We use team ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, creating our predictions that are updated every day throughout the season. Game predictions are also affected by factors such as travel, rest differences, and changes in starting quarterback.

Despite San Francisco’s tough schedule, poor break differential and lack of security under middle, FPI still ranks them 5th overall behind the Eagles, Chiefs, Bills and Bengals.

That speaks to the overall quality of their squad and coaching staff, so it’s safe to assume they’ll overcome such huge hurdles.

While they rank 5th in the FPI, ESPN’s analysis actually gives them the third best chance of winning the Super Bowl. The 49ers have an 11 percent chance, just behind the Chiefs (13 percent) and Eagles (14 percent). These are the only three teams with a 10 percent or better chance of winning the Lombardi Cup at the end of the 2023 season.

The 49ers and Eagles are the only NFC teams in the top five. The Cowboys are at seven percent, the Lions are behind at four percent. Of 12 teams with a three percent chance or better, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Dallas and Detroit are the only representatives from the NFC.

There’s no denying that the 49ers’ road back to the Super Bowl won’t be easy. Their schedule is brutal and the #1 team at the FPI, Philadelphia, will stand in their way.

Philly aside, however, there aren’t many serious threats in the NFC earlier in the year, so the 49ers are still considered favorites to run deep. If they can sort out their QB situation and Hargrave makes the contribution the team is hoping for, San Francisco’s relatively slow offseason will soon be forgotten.

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