After two years of declining San Francisco public school enrollments, new data shows a slowing of the exodus from the city’s public schools. Enrollment in unchartered public schools fell by about 400 students last fall, an improvement from the loss of about 2,600 between 2020 and 2021.
Still, the district has lost nearly 4,000 students from non-charter schools since 2019. Some observers have claimed the drop is a result of the district’s turbulent first two years of the pandemic, which included controversy, lawsuits and the removal of three board members.
But the district’s enrollment loss is consistent with what’s being seen in districts across the state, suggesting these declines are more likely due to population changes — particularly record-low birth rates and an exodus from California — than to district-specific struggles.
As of Fall 2019, SFUSD had more than 52,000 students in its non-charter schools. But fewer students enrolled with each year of the pandemic, with the largest loss occurring between 2020 and 2021, when enrollment fell by about 2,600.
During that time, enrollments at the city’s charter schools declined more modestly — by 1,500 from 2019 to 2022. Meanwhile, enrollments at private schools in the city actually increased. The number of students at SF private schools with at least six students increased by around 400 students from summer 2020 to summer 2022.
The increase in enrollment at SF private schools is likely even larger, since county-level enrollment data excludes private schools with fewer than six students. That is, there is a lack of data on students who are homeschooled. Homeschool programs in California are typically established through existing private or charter programs or by filing a private school affidavit and opening your own private home-based school. As a result, homeschooled students are typically counted as enrolled in private schools with fewer than six students.
State-level data on the number of private schools with fewer than six students indicates a sharp increase in the number of homeschooled students in California. In the summer of 2021, the country had around 20,000 more of these small private schools in operation than in the summer of 2019.
Overall, the enrollment in private schools and homeschooled students in California increased by about 30,000 from summer 2019 to summer 2021. Charter school enrollment increased by about 20,000 students from fall 2019 to fall 2022, while public school enrollment fell by 320,000 over the same period — a 5.8% decrease compared to a 7.6% decrease in the public schools in San Francisco.
The steep decline in California public school enrollments during the pandemic cannot be fully explained by the surge in home and private school enrollments. According to an analysis by the Associated Press and Big Local News, more than a third of the decline in California public school enrollments is the result of changes in the state’s school-age (5-17 year olds) population. The analysis found that California’s school-age population fell by an estimated 96,000 between 2019 and 2021 — a result of the state’s declining birthrate and families moving away from California.
San Francisco’s school-age population also declined during the pandemic, suggesting it was also a factor in the decline in public school enrollments.
Indeed, in recent decades, the decline in public school enrollment in San Francisco has been more gradual than in some of the state’s other major counties. For example, the Los Angeles Unified School District, the state’s largest district, has experienced an average 2% year-on-year drop in enrollment over the past 20 years. Other Southern California counties have also seen declining enrollments for decades, including San Diego Unified and Long Beach Unified.
Even during the pandemic, enrollment loss at SFUSD non-charter schools (7.6%) was far less than LA Unified (11.5%) and Santa Ana Unified (12.4%).
Student assignment data for the upcoming 2023-24 school year points to another year of flat or falling SFUSD enrollment. According to the results of the district’s first round of 2023-24 student allocations, approximately 14,000 families applied for placement in SFUSD schools this year, slightly fewer than the previous cycle. Of the 14,000 families who submitted applications, some will turn down their places at SFUSD schools in order to enroll in private or charter schools in San Francisco or nearby counties, but we will not know how many choose these alternatives, until the enrollment numbers per year are published in.
Reach Nami Sumida: nami.sumida@sfchronicle.com
