Moving

49ers and Colts QBs transferring market in Week 17

We are entering the penultimate week of the regular NFL football season. There are no Thursday or Saturday games this week so we’ll have to wait until Sunday to get our NFL fix. The league took a giant step on Tuesday by reducing the isolation time required after a positive test result to five days. This news has shifted which players might be available this weekend and therefore had an impact on the betting market. Which games that kick in in week 17 have there been significant line movement?

Yesterday we were informed that Carson Wentz had entered COVID logs. As an unvaccinated player, we all assumed that he would be out for at least 10 days and that he would certainly be out for the game this weekend against the Raiders. The betting market reacted.

Indianapolis opened as a 7.5-point favorite over the Raiders, and following news of Wentz’s test positive, the line dropped significantly. The Colts were only 1.5 point favorites on Tuesday afternoon.

However, shortly after the Wentz News was released, the league changed their protocols, opening up the possibility for Wentz to play should he be asymptomatic.

Given the market reaction, it seems likely that Wentz will play. The Colts are now 6.5 point favorites over the Raiders on Sunday. One might assume that the downgrade of one point from the original number is because we’re not sure if Wentz will play. However, the line movement makes it feel pretty safe.

Trey Lance season?

The San Francisco 49ers opened as hefty 15.5-point favorites ahead of the Houston Texans. I suspect the quota makers didn’t take much of the picture from Houston’s angry win over the Chargers last week.

However, the 49ers announced that Jimmy Garoppolo has a thumb injury and his status for that game is uncertain. The team will likely hand control over to third overall number one, Trey Lance.

Trey Lance will quarterback the San Francisco 49ers, making for significant line movement. (Abbie Parr / Getty Images)

While the online community loves kidding on Garoppolo and is in love with Lance’s potential, the betting market doesn’t seem entirely to agree. They downgraded the 49ers by three points based on news of a Garoppolo move to Lance.

The story goes on

Currently, the 49ers are only 12.5-point favorites over the Texans. While the 49ers should be fine with Lance in this game, it is certainly a situation worth watching as this team seems poised to make the playoffs and Garoppolo is out long term.

Kansas City again in favor of the weather

Back to last season and for the first half of this season, hiding the Kansas City Chiefs against the spread was basically free money. The team was elitist, but overrated by the betting market. In the first nine games of this season, they only covered the range twice.

Then the general public began to doubt the Chiefs, and the betting market reacted and stopped inflating their spreads massively. Now that the Chiefs look like they’ve hit their groove on either side of the ball, they’re back to covering the number. Kansas City has played six games in a row.

The Chiefs are currently the 5.5-point favorite on the road via the Cincinnati Bengals. The line opened when the Chiefs only put four points, but it seems like the bettors will believe in the Chiefs again, causing that line to skyrocket. Kansas City was set to bring back Travis Kelce in this matchup after missing last week’s game due to COVID logs.

Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens fans are sure to get excited for the Chiefs on Sunday as a surprising Bengals win would bring AFC North to Cincinnati.

Observe the key number

Not every line movement is the same. In the NFL, scores often fall on the key margin of wins like 3, 7, and 14. Movements around these numbers are often more influential than larger moves around non-key numbers. We saw five games on the schedule this week fluctuate around a key number:

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