Will the San Francisco Bay Space see any extra rain earlier than the top of November?

Long-range forecasts show mostly dry weather conditions in the San Francisco Bay Area through the end of November, the National Weather Service said. This news is discouraging in a region facing drought conditions.

“We’ve got pretty much dry conditions through next week,” weather service forecaster Matt Mehle said on Friday. “We’re watching one potential system. One model showed a weak, low pressure system, but it looks like it’s going to be a very low chance for that to occur.”

The weather service used a dozen weather models to forecast the weather, and Mehle said only one suggested a slight chance for light rain on Tuesday, Nov. 23. After that, models don’t show any rain until early December.

Models are in agreement that Thanksgiving Day will be dry.

The Climate Prediction Center, at arm of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said in its eight-to-14 day precipitation outlet that there’s a 30% to 40% chance of below normal rainfall in the Bay Area through Dec. 2.

Is it possible the Bay Area could see no more rain through the end of November?

“It’s definitely possible,” Mehle said.

The San Francisco Bay Area saw a wet start to the rainy season, and rainfall totals across the region are still well above normal.

Precipitation totals since Oct. 1 in San Francisco, Oakland and Santa Rosa are all 400% above average.

“All those numbers are going to start to course correct,” Mehle said. “We had so much rain at the beginning of the water year and the numbers are abnormally high, but all of those will go down the more dry weather we get.”