According to a recent study by Freddie Mac, authored by Kristine Yao, director of macro and housing economics, the pace of domestic migration of homebuyers leaving their current metro area has decreased by 18% over the past 12 months1, but homebuyers are pulling continue to descend from expensive, expensive residential areas. larger metropolitan areas and to more affordable areas. Which metro areas saw the biggest gains and losses?
Based on an analysis of March 2023 Freddie Mac Loan Product Advisor® (LPA) data, the following tables present the metro areas with the largest 12-month net gains and losses and the percentage year-on-year change.
Overall, the number of migrant homebuyers more than tripled over a rolling 12-month period between March 2020 and March 2022. And although the pace of migration has slowed over the past 12 months, net migration remains elevated compared to the 12-month period through March 2021.
The country’s 10 metropolitan areas with the largest positive net immigration in the last 12 months saw a 20% decrease in net immigration inflows compared to the previous 12-month period. Only Lakeland-Winter Haven, Florida, recorded additional net immigration growth of 6%, moving up seven places to third place. Interestingly, total 12-month net migration in March 2023 to these popular destinations remained higher than between April 2020 and March 2021, with the exception of two areas: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, California, and North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton. Fla.
metropolitan areas with the largest net immigration gains
Source: LPA data
In the country’s top 10 metro areas with the largest negative net migration over the last 12 months, net migration losses slowed by 17% compared to the previous 12-month period. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Fla. was the only exception as net migration losses increased 52% and improved three places to eighth place. Total net migration from these major metropolitan areas was higher than between April 2020 and March 2021, with the exception of three areas: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, California, San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, California, and Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill .-Ind.-Wis.
metropolitan areas with the largest net migration losses
Source: LPA data
To track these net migration patterns, we analyzed all accepted purchase loan applications submitted to Freddie Mac’s LPA system between April 2019 and March 2023. This has the advantage of allowing up-to-the-minute analysis compared to US census data. We caution that the loan application data provides only a limited view of traditional qualifying loans and does not represent the overall market, which includes government-sponsored loans, non-compliant loans and traditional non-Freddie Mac compliant loan applications. In addition, the loan application data only records the intention to move.
The pandemic has amplified existing homebuyer churn patterns and shows that the population is in search of affordable housing. The highest net migration losses among homebuyers have been in high-cost, inelastic coastal markets. The metro areas where net homebuyer immigration is growing the most are smaller, cheaper inland and southern destinations. For more information on net migration patterns, see “In Search of Affordable Housing: Homebuyer Migration Within the US—Before and After the Pandemic.”
For more insights from Freddie Mac’s research team, see Research Insights, Notes & Briefs.
