The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, June Replace: 2nd Total YoY Worth Drop since 2012. Greatest in Seattle, San Francisco, Las Vegas, Phoenix, San Diego, Portland, Dallas…
It’s spring sales season when prices are increasing month-on-month, and they did, but that wasn’t enough.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
It’s still the spring sales season, with sales volumes and prices almost always increasing month-on-month, and that’s happened this spring too, but not enough, and compared to a year ago, the 20 cities in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Der The Shiller Home Price Index released today fell 1.7%, the sharpest year-on-year decline since 2012, after falling 1.1% the previous month after Fed money printers made gargantuan gains during the pandemic. The 20-city index is now 3.5% below its peak in June last year:
Today’s data for “April” is a three-month moving average of home prices for sales recorded in February, March and April in public records. This is the spring sales season, when prices always rise from the previous month, even during the first real estate crisis.
On a monthly basis, the 20-city index increased by 1.7% in April compared to March, but that was significantly lower growth than in April 2022 (+2.3%) and April 2021 (+2.2%). Why have prices continued to fall year-on-year:
The list of year-on-year price declines just keeps getting longer. Prices are now down in 10 of the 20 metro areas covered by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Here are the metros with year-on-year price declines:
- Seattle: -12.4%
- San Francisco Bay Area: -11.1%
- Las Vegas: -6.6%
- Phoenix: -6.1%
- San Diego: -5.6%
- Portland: -5.2%
- Denver: -4.5%
- Los Angeles: -3.2%
- Dallas: -2.9%
- Washington DC: -0.5%
In 19 of the 20 markets, prices have fallen from their respective highs (Period: May to July 2022). The exception is the New York City Metro, which surpassed its previous peak of July 2022. From their respective highs, prices have fallen the most in these metropolitan areas:
- Seattle: -12.9%
- San Francisco Bay Area: -12.0%
- Las Vegas: -9.9%
- Phoenix: -9.4%
- Dallas: -8.5%
- San Diego: -6.1%
- Portland: -6.0%
- Denver: -5.6%
- Los Angeles: -4.2%
- Tampa: -3.0%
Seattle Subway:
- Month by month: +2.3%.
- From the peak in May: -12.9%.
- YoY: -12.4%.
The 12.4% year-over-year decline in Seattle marked the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year declines:
The San Francisco Bay Area:
- Month by month: +2.2%.
- From May peak: -12.0%.
- YoY: -11.1%.
This was the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year declines:
And this is the situation for condos in the San Francisco Bay Area: after a big surge, they’re now back to where they were in May 2018:
Las Vegas Subway:
- Month by month: +0.7%.
- From July peak: -9.9%.
- YoY: -6.6%
Phoenix subway:
- Month by month: +0.7%.
- From June peak: -9.4%.
- YoY: -6.1%
San Diego Subway:
- Month by month: +2.0%.
- From the peak in May: -6.1%.
- YoY: -5.6%.
Portland Subway:
- Month by month: +1.5%.
- From May peak: -6.0%.
- YoY: -5.2%.
Denver Subway:
- Month by month: +1.6%.
- From May peak: -5.6%.
- YoY: -4.5%.
Los Angeles Subway:
- Month by month: +1.7%.
- From the peak in May: -4.2%.
- YoY: -3.2%.
Dallas Subway:
- Month by month: +1.4%.
- From June peak: -8.5%.
- YoY: -2.9%
Washington DC Subway:
- Month by month: +1.6%.
- From June peak: -1.6%.
- YoY: -0.5%
Boston subway:
- Month by month: +2.9%.
- From June peak: -1.6%.
- YoY: +0.9%
Tampa Subway:
- Month by month: +0.8%.
- From July peak: -3.0%
- YoY: +2.4%
Subway Miami:
- Month by month: +0.9%
- From July peak: -1.3%
- YoY: +5.2%
New York subway:
- Month by month: 1.5%.
- Surpassed July high: +0.4%
- Year-on-year: +3.0%
Methodology. The Case-Shiller Index uses the “sales pairs” method and compares sales in the current month to previous sales of the same homes. The price changes are weighted based on how long ago the previous sale was, and adjustments are made for DIY and other factors (methodology). This “selling pairs” method makes the Case-Shiller Index a more reliable indicator than median price indices, but lags behind by months.
The Case-Shiller indices were set at 100 for the year 2000. The Los Angeles Index score of 405 in April is up 305% since 2000. Los Angeles is the No. 1 in the “Splendid Housing Bubble” in terms of price increases since 2000. Miami and San Diego are just behind, both also up over 300%.
The remaining six markets in the Case Shiller Index have experienced far lower home price inflation since 2000 and do not qualify for this list of the most beautiful housing bubbles.
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