Maybe our pitch will show up in SF today.

• From
  
  Jim McLennan
  

• on June 24, 2023 3:30 p.m

Today’s lineups

How bad has Zach Davies been this season? He’s made eight starts for the D-Backs and given us a 56 ERA+. There was only one pitcher with that many starts and a worse ERA+. You have to go back to Edgar Gonzalez, who started ten games in that terrible 2004 season, to find out: He had a 9.32 ERA, a 49 ERA+. That was historically poor — not just for the franchise, but in general National League team, and not one that’s battling for division. So far, Davies hasn’t hurt the team’s overall record too much, with their starts tied 4-4. But the last three were worryingly poor as the D-backs were not only down 0-3 but also held a 35-11 lead.

If you’re guaranteed to lose every fifth day, the battle becomes a lot harder. Torey Lovullo’s words after last night’s game were almost true. But if you look at the other terrible starting players in the team’s history, you’ll see that most of them had the plug pulled – even Gonzalez was dropped from the terrible team’s roster of 2004 when it expanded in September. The following table lists the starting pitchers with the ten worst ERA+s in Diamondbacks history (again, at least eight starts). Of them, only three made it to fifteen starts. Just one of those who spent the whole year in the rotation: Russ Ortiz, and even he missed two months due to an “injury”. Cahill was moved to the stable and Daal was traded.

The problem for the D-Backs is the lack of credible alternatives. While Brandon Pfaadt is still one of the team’s top pitchers, his performances in the majors this year have been even worse than Davies’. It’s also worth noting that Davies’ FIP is much better than his ERA, way down at 4.20, better than both Ryne Nelson and Tommy Henry. In fact, of the 267 pitchers in the majors with 30-plus innings, only one has a worse gap between his ERA and his FIP (Shintaro Fujinami of the Athletics). Maybe our manager is right and it really would be best to stay with Davies. However, if Zach’s actual production would hurry up and match his FIP, that would be greatly appreciated.

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The Orioles are lucky enough to claim victory today as Kevin Gausman and Dean Kremer take the mound.

• From
  
  Andrea SK
  

• on May 21, 2023 1:07 p.m

Good pitching and timely batting has worked for the Orange Birds in this three-game series in Toronto so far. After winning the first two games taking place on Saturday in exciting comeback fashion, the Orioles are able to pull off a clean victory today. To do that, they’ll need to get some key hits from a former Orioles starter who left town at the 2018 Great Baltimore Fire Sale and a clean outing from one who arrived in that era.

If you think of baseball teams as a family tree, where instead of mothers and fathers having children, there are trades and contractual obligations, then Kevin Gausman, who left Baltimore for Atlanta along with Darren O’Day, is the Orioles co-parent of Evan Phillips, JC Encarnacion, Brett Cumberland, and Bruce Zimmerman. (Yes, I think we want that back.) On the other side of the starter matchup is Manny Machado, Dean Kremer’s Oriole daddy, who left Baltimore for LA, leaving behind Breyvic Valera, Zach Pop, Rylan Bannon, and Kremer. (By the way, Pop is now a Blue Jay, but he’s in 15-day IL.)

It’s good that Dean Kremer is starting to find “it” this season. He’s had ups and downs, most notably his season debut on April 1 against Boston, a five-run, three-inning game, or on April 29 when he conceded five runs against Detroit. But he has an upward trend: his WHIP in April was 1.58, but in three starts in May he has a WHIP of 1.13 and an ERA of 2.04. Real or mirage? How he fares against a strong Blue Jays lineup will give us a clue. Vladdy Jr. has beaten Kremer well in the past, with 4 HR and 6 RBI in 16 ABs. Kevin Kiermaier is 1:4 against him. However, Bo Bichette, Matt Chapman, Whit Merrifield and George Springer have all played Kremer ten or more times and none have averaged over .200.

I remember Gausman when he had short hair and an ERA of four and a half years. Atlanta couldn’t do much with him, neither did Cincinnati. But a 17-9 record and a 3.00 ERA with San Francisco from 2020-21 changed Gaus’ career and that’s why he has a 5-year/$110m contract that sees him through 2026 to the Blue Jay will do. He has a 3.33 ERA for Toronto in split two seasons.

One thing Gaus has done differently since leaving the Orioles is throwing fewer fours – San Francisco really helped with that – and his pitch mix now looks like this: 52% fastballs, 40% splitters, 7% Slider, < 1% changeups. Gausman's best pitch while he was an Oriole is split fastball, or as he calls it on Twitter, #DaSpwitter. (He always called it #DaSpwitty. I'm no better either.) The pitch has a 50% snore percentage. If I were out there today, I'd be sitting in red.

Most of the O’s lineup has seen Gausman five times or fewer, with the exception of Adam Frazier, who had 32 AB’s against him and beat him by a .406 average. James McCann, who catches today, is fine with 3 of 12. Cedric Mullins, in the lead, is 2 of 5 against Gausman while Adley, DH’ing and Mountcastle, who clean, are both a nice 3 of 5. Joey Ortiz meets Gausman for the first time.

Orioles Lineup

1. Cedric Mullins CF
2. Adleyrutschman DH
3.Anthony Santander RF
4.Ryan Mountcastle 1B
5. Adam Frazier 2B
6.Austin Hays LF
7. Gunnar Henderson 3B
8. James McCann C
9. Joey Ortiz SS

Lineup of the Blue Jays

1.George Springer RF
2. Bo Bichette SS
3. Vlad Guerrero Jr. 1B
4. Brandon Belt DH
5. Matt Chapman 3B
6. Whit Merrifield 2B
7. Alejandro Kirk C
8. Nathan Luke’s LF
9.Kevin Kiermaier CF

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