20-City index below 2022 high, 9 metros below 2022 highs, 10 metros set new highs. The unsavory “National” index cocktail in the headlines today gets shredded.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Home prices in the 20 metropolitan areas that today’s S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index covers eked out the smallest month-to-month gain (+0.2%) since January, and remained a tad below its all-time peak of June last year. Here’s the close-up. We’ll get into the most splendid of the 20 metros in a moment in all their individual glory.

The  S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index uses the “sales-pairs method,” comparing the sales price of the same house over time, thereby eliminating the issues associated with median price indices (see “Methodology” toward the end of the article). But it lags: Today’s index for “September” is a three-month moving average of home prices whose sales were entered into public records in July, August, and September.

By contrast, the national median-price index by the National Association of Realtors fell for the fourth month in a row in October and was down 5.1% from the all-time high in June 2022, making 2023 the first year since the Housing Bust that the seasonal high of the current year was below the high in the prior year. And this is an actual national index.

By contrast, the “National” Case-Shiller index hit an all-time high, which is what the headlines today screamed about. But the Case-Shiller Index, which I think is the most reliable house price index out there, does not cover the entire US; it only covers the 20 metros discussed here.

So S&P CoreLogic, in its attempts to give the 20-City data the aura of a “National” index, combined the clean 20-City Case-Shiller data with data from the FHFA House Price Index. The FHFA data is based on mortgage data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that systematically excludes all cash deals and all deals with mortgages that hadn’t been bought by Fannie and Freddie. This systematic selection and exclusion of home price data makes the FHFA index very weird and skews it.

Nevertheless, S&P CoreLogic mixed these two data sets into a cocktail it calls “National Home Price Index,” and the doofus reporters or bots at the media outlets to make clickbait out of it.

So today’s 20-City Case-Shiller housing numbers.

Prices are below their 2022 peaks in 9 of the 20 metros in the index (% from their respective peak):

1. San Francisco Bay Area: -11.2%
2. Seattle: -10.4%
3. Las Vegas: -5.6%
4. Phoenix:  -5.6%
5. Portland:  -5.0%
6. Denver:  -4.7%
7. Dallas: -4.1%
8. San Diego: -2.0%
9. Los Angeles: -1.1%

Prices set new highs in 10 of the 20 metros in the index (% year-over-year):

1. New York: +6.3%
2. Detroit: +6.7%
3. Chicago: +6.0%
4. Boston: +5.3%
5. Cleveland: +5.0%
6. Miami: +5.0%
7. Charlotte: +4.7%
8. Washington DC: +4.4%
9. Atlanta: +4.3%
10. Tampa: +1.5%

The most splendid housing bubbles by metro.

San Francisco Bay Area: 

• Month to month: flat
• Year over year: +0.5%
• From the peak in May 2022: -11.2%.

And here is the closeup of San Francisco:

Seattle metro:

• Month to month: -0.5%.
• Year over year: +0.9%.
• From the peak in May 2022: -10.4%.

The closeup of Seattle:

Las Vegas metro:

• Month to month: +0.6%.
• Year over year: -1.9%.
• From the peak in July 2022: -5.6%.

Phoenix metro:

• Month to month: +0.5%.
• Year over year: -1.2%.
• From the peak in June 2022: -5.6%.

Portland metro:

• Month to month: -0.4%.
• Year over year: -0.7%.
• From the peak in May 2022: -5.0%.

The closeup of Portland:

Denver metro:

• Month to month: -0.3%.
• Year over year: +1.0%.
• From the peak in May 2022: -4.7%.

Note: I will post closeups of Denver and a few other markets in the comments below as soon as I have a little extra time.

Dallas metro:

• Month to month: -0.1%.
• Year over year: +0.3%.
• From the peak in June 2022: -4.1%.

San Diego metro:

• Month to month: flat.
• Year over year: +6.5%.
• From the peak in May 2022: -2.0%.

Los Angeles metro:

• Month to month: +0.2%.
• Year over year: +5.2%.
• From the peak in May 2022: -1.1%.

Tampa metro: 

• Month to month: +0.5%.
• Year over year: +1.5%.
• Set new high by a hair, squeaking past the high of July 2022.

Washington D.C. metro:

• Month to month: 0.1%.
• Year over year: +4.4%.
• Set new high.

Boston metro:

• Month to month: +0.5%.
• Year over year: +5.3%.
• Set new high.

Miami metro:

• Month to month: +0.6%
• Year over year: +5.0%.
• Set new high.

New York metro:

• Month to month: +0.6%.
• Year over year: +6.3%.
• Set new high.

Methodology. The Case-Shiller Index uses the “sales pairs” method, comparing sales in the current month to when the same houses sold previously. The price changes are weighted based on how long ago the prior sale occurred, and adjustments are made for home improvements and other factors. This “sales pairs” method makes the Case-Shiller index a more reliable indicator than median price indices, but it lags months behind (37-page methodology).

It’s Home-Price Inflation. By measuring how many dollars it takes to buy the same house over time, the Case-Shiller index is a measure of home price inflation. The indices were set at 100 for the year 2000. So today’s index values of 425 for Miami and 419 for San Diego and Los Angeles are up respectively by 325% and 319% since 2000. Miami is thereby the #1 Most Splendid Housing Bubble in terms of home price inflation since 2000, followed by San Diego and Los Angeles.

To be included in this list of the Most Splendid Housing Bubbles, the metro must have experienced a home price inflation since 2000 of at least 180%.

By comparison, Consumer-Price Inflation, which tracks price changes of goods and services that are consumed by consumers was 82% over the same period since January 2000, according to the Consumer Price index (my latest on CPI: Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation).

The remaining 6 of the 20 markets in the Case-Shiller index (Chicago, Charlotte, Minneapolis, Atlanta, Detroit, and Cleveland) had far less home price inflation than 180% since 2000, and don’t qualify for this list of the Most Splendid Housing Bubbles. But in 2022 and 2023, these metros were the ones with the biggest home price increases in percentage terms.

Chicago is among the 6 metros that don’t qualify for this list, with an index value of 198, which is up by “only” 98% from 2000. But here it is anyway:

• Month to month: +0.3%
• Year over year: +6.0%.
• Set new high.

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The post Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, Nov. Replace: From 2022 Highs, San Francisco -11%, Seattle -10%, Las Vegas -6%, Phoenix -6%, Portland -5%, Denver -5%, Dallas -5%, San Diego… appeared first on DAILY SAN FRANCISCO BAY NEWS.

We have some of the worst air quality in the world: Did you enjoy your smoky hell weekend? No? Me either! The Air Quality Index in Seattle reached around 190 at one point Sunday evening. Being outside felt like being a chimney sweep trapped inside a chimney in Victorian England. Changing winds started moving into the region Monday morning. Hopefully, the smoke will leave pretty soon. Wish for a strong onshore flow. Wish for rain.

Tell us when the smoke leaves, weather people of Twitter: According to the Seattle Weather Blog’s crystal ball, the smoke might linger most of Monday before it starts clearing out. However, the AQI was already down to 100 as of Monday morning. That’s still bad, don’t get me wrong, but it’s better than 190! It’s all about perspective. 

Best guess is that the Seattle area endures one more day of smoky conditions before influx of ocean air clears us out late Mon/early Tue.

— Seattle Weather Blog (@KSeattleWeather) August 21, 2023

Tokitae goes belly up in Miami: Tokitae, also known as Lolita, was the last remaining southern resident killer whale in captivity. She was supposed to make her journey home to the Pacific Northwest after 50 years, but she died Friday from a renal condition. Ted Griffin, the man who first started capturing killer whales to have them perform in captivity, bagged Tokitae and greatly depleted the southern resident orca population. He said he had “no regrets.”

Mass shooting in Mount Baker: A shooting in a hookah lounger along Rainier Avenue South in Mount Baker at 4:30 am Sunday killed three people and injured another six. Police recovered five guns from the scene. So far, in 2023, the Seattle Police Department has seized 869 guns, the highest amount in 13 years, KING 5 reports.

South King County has brain worms: Elected officials in Des Moines and Federal Way are working to shut down existing homeless shelters or deny permits to fully funded shelter projects because, as the Seattle Times reports, they “think shelter and housing exacerbate the effects of the homelessness crisis in their neighborhoods.” What???? I’m going to hazard a guess that giving people no shelter or housing will actually increase the visible signs of homelessness in your neighborhood and will not help find a solution to end homelessness at all! The state is investigating whether these practices are illegal since they may violate a 2021 law that requires cities have a certain number of shelter beds before regulating shelters or housing projects. 

Earthquake, hurricane tropical storm strikes California: A 5.1 magnitude earthquake struck Ojai, California on Sunday right as the tropical storm Hilary struck. Hilary’s path took her through the Inland Empire and then into the heart of Los Angeles, where she hovered above Dodger Stadium and Compton for a while. Then, she went back on her path up the border of LA and San Bernardino. The deserts are flooding, San Diego had the most rain in a single day since 1873, flash flood warnings abound. More storm updates here. 

Soggy Dodgers:

Dodger Stadium is an island. pic.twitter.com/g2mQrKzgS3

— Don Van Natta Jr. (@DVNJr) August 21, 2023

Here comes the mud: 

A wall of mud surged through California’s Sheep Canyon, carrying wood and debris along with it, as Hilary, then a tropical storm, dropped heavy rain across the region. https://t.co/Hlf8MSlN9S pic.twitter.com/mdtj3yWBEp

— CBS News (@CBSNews) August 21, 2023

Is your package late? I’ll tell you why. A historic drought hitting the Panama Canal means lower water levels and lower capacity for heavy ships. To conserve water, the Panama Canal Authority “reduced maximum ship weights and daily ship crossings.” The line to get through the canal earlier this month was “backed up 160 vessels and delayed some ships by as much as 21 days.” So crazy when climate change interrupts the profits of capitalism, the very thing standing in the way of stopping the impacts of climate change. 

Russia crashed into the moon this weekend: Russia bungled its first lunar landing attempt since 1976 when it lost contact with its unmanned Luna-25 craft and it crashed into the moon. 

In case you forgot, here’s yesterday’s hell sun: This apocalypse sun knows that things can only get worse from here if we don’t figure our shit out: 

Just an orb on the horizon for sunset tonight. And that’s not dust on the camera lens. The thick smoke is making sun spots readily visible without a filter. #wawx pic.twitter.com/Dk86n2j34y

— NWS Seattle (@NWSSeattle) August 21, 2023

Don’t read this if you’re a nervous flyer: The US hasn’t had a major plane crash in over a decade, but close calls are happening way more often than we think, and the problem seems to be getting worse. Just last month, the New York Times found “at least 46 close calls involving commercial airlines.” These close calls seem to all be potential collisions with other planes taking off or landing from airport runways. They’re the result of human error likely caused by understaffed and over-stretched air traffic controllers. “The close calls have involved all major U.S. airlines and have happened nationwide.” Air traffic controllers interviewed by the Times said “they feared it was only a matter of time until a deadly crash occurred.”

In Maui news: There are 114 confirmed dead from the Lahaina fires, with only 27 people identified so far. However, 850 people are still missing. 

Frugals in Tacoma linked to listeria deaths: Three people in Tacoma have died and three others have been hospitalized after drinking milkshakes from a contaminated ice cream machine at Frugals restaurant in Tacoma. 

Big news for organ lovers: Surgeons transplanted a pig’s kidney into a brain-dead man to see if the pig kidney would function. For a month, the pig kidney has worked like a normal human kidney and produced urine. Scientists will continue to monitor the kidney for a second month, but this is a huge scientific step for potentially easing shortages of transplantable organs with animal organs. 

Spain wins Women’s World Cup: Spain’s La Roja vanquished England’s Lionesses 1-0 to take home the Women’s World Cup trophy, the country’s first Women’s World Cup win. Olga Carmona, 23, was one of the breakout stars for Spain. She scored the game-winning goal in the final. Carmona’s father died from a battle with cancer two days before the match, but her family didn’t tell her until after she played. “I know you have been watching me tonight and that you are proud of me. Rest in peace dad,” Carmona wrote on social media. 

23-year-old Olga Carmona loves scoring a game-winner

Spain’s captain nets our Goal of the Day to secure La Roja’s first-ever FIFA Women’s World Cup title pic.twitter.com/Lb5AoZt2t2

— FOX Soccer (@FOXSoccer) August 20, 2023

In other sports news: The Mariners are on a six-game winning streak and just finished a full sweep of the Houston Astros. Julio Rodriguez is so hot right now he’s had 17 hits in four games—that’s more than the entire New York Yankees team. Rodriguez broke a Major League Baseball record set in 1925.

The post Slog AM: Seattle Smoke Will Clear Quickly, Tokitae Kicks the Bucket, Spain Wins Ladies’s World Cup appeared first on DAILY SAN FRANCISCO BAY NEWS.

AURORA, Colo. — Six people were injured — two critically — in Colorado on Saturday when a heating, ventilation and air conditioning unit collapsed and fell into a pool, authorities said.

>> Read more trending news

Two of the victims were critically hurt when the metal ductwork and mechanical parts fell inside the pool area at the Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center near Denver International Airport, The Associated Press reported.

Read More

According to a news release from Aurora city officials, the HVAC unit collapsed at about 9:50 a.m. MDT. There were about 50 to 100 people in the pool area, according to the television station. Four people who suffered injuries not considered to be life-threatening were taken to area hospitals, the release stated.

Alec Oughton, Aurora Fire Rescue’s chief, told KUSA-TV that eight firefighters were at the resort for physical training on stairwells and responded immediately to the scene.

“We don’t have any information on what led up to the collapse. There will be an investigation,” Oughton told the television station. “That’ll be all the Gaylord’s responsibility. It’s not a fire department investigation. But I know they have an interest in looking into what happened and getting to the bottom of it.”

Jenn Spykerman was at the resort and tweeted photos of the incident.

“The HVAC system came crashing down on guest(s) in the pool area this morning,” Spykerman tweeted. “My son narrowly missed being hit by the disaster.

“Not a good day at the Gaylord in Denver.”

Jamie Olson, who took a video of the collapse, told KDVR-TV that her son had just gotten out of the hot tub when the system collapsed directly on top of it and the rest of the pool.

“We were right on the outside of the hot tub, and just kind of heard a big groan, and we looked up and it was just like a domino effect,” Olson said. “One side collapsed, and then it caused the other side to collapse.”

Gaylord Rockies, which is owned by Marriott International, released a statement and said the company was “devastated by this traumatic incident,” KDVR reported.

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It’s spring sales season when prices are increasing month-on-month, and they did, but that wasn’t enough.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

It’s still the spring sales season, with sales volumes and prices almost always increasing month-on-month, and that’s happened this spring too, but not enough, and compared to a year ago, the 20 cities in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Der The Shiller Home Price Index released today fell 1.7%, the sharpest year-on-year decline since 2012, after falling 1.1% the previous month after Fed money printers made gargantuan gains during the pandemic. The 20-city index is now 3.5% below its peak in June last year:

Today’s data for “April” is a three-month moving average of home prices for sales recorded in February, March and April in public records. This is the spring sales season, when prices always rise from the previous month, even during the first real estate crisis.

On a monthly basis, the 20-city index increased by 1.7% in April compared to March, but that was significantly lower growth than in April 2022 (+2.3%) and April 2021 (+2.2%). Why have prices continued to fall year-on-year:

The list of year-on-year price declines just keeps getting longer. Prices are now down in 10 of the 20 metro areas covered by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Here are the metros with year-on-year price declines:

1. Seattle: -12.4%
2. San Francisco Bay Area: -11.1%
3. Las Vegas: -6.6%
4. Phoenix: -6.1%
5. San Diego: -5.6%
6. Portland: -5.2%
7. Denver: -4.5%
8. Los Angeles: -3.2%
9. Dallas: -2.9%
10. Washington DC: -0.5%

In 19 of the 20 markets, prices have fallen from their respective highs (Period: May to July 2022). The exception is the New York City Metro, which surpassed its previous peak of July 2022. From their respective highs, prices have fallen the most in these metropolitan areas:

• Seattle: -12.9%
• San Francisco Bay Area: -12.0%
• Las Vegas: -9.9%
• Phoenix: -9.4%
• Dallas: -8.5%
• San Diego: -6.1%
• Portland: -6.0%
• Denver: -5.6%
• Los Angeles: -4.2%
• Tampa: -3.0%

Seattle Subway:

• Month by month: +2.3%.
• From the peak in May: -12.9%.
• YoY: -12.4%.

The 12.4% year-over-year decline in Seattle marked the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year declines:

The San Francisco Bay Area:

• Month by month: +2.2%.
• From May peak: -12.0%.
• YoY: -11.1%.

This was the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year declines:

And this is the situation for condos in the San Francisco Bay Area: after a big surge, they’re now back to where they were in May 2018:

Las Vegas Subway:

• Month by month: +0.7%.
• From July peak: -9.9%.
• YoY: -6.6%

Phoenix subway:

• Month by month: +0.7%.
• From June peak: -9.4%.
• YoY: -6.1%

San Diego Subway:

• Month by month: +2.0%.
• From the peak in May: -6.1%.
• YoY: -5.6%.

Portland Subway:

• Month by month: +1.5%.
• From May peak: -6.0%.
• YoY: -5.2%.

Denver Subway:

• Month by month: +1.6%.
• From May peak: -5.6%.
• YoY: -4.5%.

Los Angeles Subway:

• Month by month: +1.7%.
• From the peak in May: -4.2%.
• YoY: -3.2%.

Dallas Subway:

• Month by month: +1.4%.
• From June peak: -8.5%.
• YoY: -2.9%

Washington DC Subway:

• Month by month: +1.6%.
• From June peak: -1.6%.
• YoY: -0.5%

Boston subway:

• Month by month: +2.9%.
• From June peak: -1.6%.
• YoY: +0.9%

Tampa Subway:

• Month by month: +0.8%.
• From July peak: -3.0%
• YoY: +2.4%

Subway Miami:

• Month by month: +0.9%
• From July peak: -1.3%
• YoY: +5.2%

New York subway:

• Month by month: 1.5%.
• Surpassed July high: +0.4%
• Year-on-year: +3.0%

Methodology. The Case-Shiller Index uses the “sales pairs” method and compares sales in the current month to previous sales of the same homes. The price changes are weighted based on how long ago the previous sale was, and adjustments are made for DIY and other factors (methodology). This “selling pairs” method makes the Case-Shiller Index a more reliable indicator than median price indices, but lags behind by months.

The Case-Shiller indices were set at 100 for the year 2000. The Los Angeles Index score of 405 in April is up 305% since 2000. Los Angeles is the No. 1 in the “Splendid Housing Bubble” in terms of price increases since 2000. Miami and San Diego are just behind, both also up over 300%.

The remaining six markets in the Case Shiller Index have experienced far lower home price inflation since 2000 and do not qualify for this list of the most beautiful housing bubbles.

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Different day, same results in the Pacific Northwest.

The Miami Marlins lost their second straight game to the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday, with a 9-3 loss at T-Mobile Park a day after losing 8-1 in Monday’s series opener.

It’s the first time the Marlins have lost two straight games since losing three straight games (one game to the San Francisco Giants, two games to the Colorado Rockies) on May 21-23.

And the Marlins (37-31) followed a similar scenario in losing both days.

The starting pitcher had problems. Edward Cabrera gave up five runs on two homers Tuesday — a three-run shot in the second inning by Cal Raleigh (who was 0 at that hit in his last 21 shots) and a two-run shot in the fourth by Mike Ford — to throw Miami into an early crisis. He only threw four innings.

This came a day after Jesus Luzardo gave up six runs (five of them earned) while throwing just four innings.

The offensive could not convince against a pitcher who mainly throws fastballs. Bryce Miller threw fastballs on 65 of his 89 pitches Monday and kept the Marlins on a one-hit run (a Nick Fortes home run) for six innings.

George Kirby hit fastballs on 69 of his 92 pitches Tuesday and kept the Marlins on an unearned run with three hits while hitting 10 in six innings. Miami’s only run against Kirby came when Jorge Soler’s two-out single hit midway through Garrett Hampson, who grabbed with a one-out single and took second place with a pass.

Garrett Cooper hit a two-run home run against Seattle relief Chris Flexen in the eighth, bringing Miami 8-3.

The bullpen had to eat innings. The Marlins needed four innings from their bullpen both nights and required relievers to run multiple innings to prevent using their primary high-leverage players in situations that didn’t require them.

Huascar Brazoban and Bryan Hoeing both went through two innings Monday and each kept Seattle (33-33) ahead by just a solo home run.

Veteran Archie Bradley, whom the Marlins added to the active roster Tuesday, threw a scoreless fifth inning on Tuesday before allowing all four batters he faced in the sixth to reach base, topped by a three-run Treble by Jose Caballero. Steven Okert then threw two shutout innings before JT Chargois made the eighth pitch and conceded a solo home run to Ford.

Luis Arraez batting average update

Luis Arraez, the Marlins’ second baseman, went 0 for 5 and went without a hit in consecutive games.

It’s the first time since May 10 with the Arizona Diamondbacks and May 12 against the Cincinnati Reds that he has gone without a hit in back-to-back starts.

Arraez’s batting average, down from .403 on Wednesday, is now down to .382.

The post Miami Marlins as soon as once more blown out by Seattle Mariners appeared first on DAILY SAN FRANCISCO BAY NEWS.

WASHINGTON — A 32-year-old man in Washington, DC told police he beheaded a handyman and cut off his arms before dumping some of his remains in the backyard of his apartment building, authorities said.

According to court documents filed Thursday, police said Lavaughn Barnes confessed to putting the victim’s head, arms and personal documents in a garbage bag, the Washington Post reported. According to the newspaper, prosecutors said the bag was picked up by city cleaners and taken to a landfill.

On February 3, Metropolitan Police Department officers discovered the remaining human remains in the yard behind a semi-detached house in the Brookland neighborhood of the city’s northeast. According to the Post, Barnes lived in the basement.

According to police, Barnes was arrested Wednesday in connection with the death of Abdulio Arias-Lopez, whose remains were found in the bag and in the yard, WJLA-TV reported. According to the television station, he was charged with second-degree murder.

According to court documents, Arias-Lopez showed Barnes paint he intended to use in the duplex’s kitchen. As Arias-Lopez walked away, Barnes reportedly followed him and pointed a stun gun to his back, WJLA reported.

Documents show Barnes confessed to stabbing Arias-Lopez twice before taking his body to the basement, according to the TV network. Barnes then allegedly said he went to a hardware store to buy an ax, which he used to chop up the handyman.

Police said the coroner had not determined a cause of death, but there was evidence the victim had stab wounds and was shot, the Post reported. Police said the remains found were skeletons and “mummified,” according to the newspaper.

Forest experts estimated that Arias-Lopez’s remains had been at the residence since November.

Police say the remains were found after Barnes’ sister told him on February 3 to clear the bamboo overgrowth in the garden, the Post reported. According to court documents, Barnes told his sister he found human remains and they both called police, the newspaper reported.

Police conducted a search of the property and continued their investigation, but Barnes reportedly called authorities on Wednesday and confessed to the killing, WRC-TV reported.

Officers using cadaver dogs found evidence of blood in the basement where Barnes lived, as well as on the back door of the basement and the back porch of the semi-detached house, the Post reported.

Police said they also found a machete, a large fixed-blade knife, four jackknives, brass knuckles, a stun gun, a drain cover, kitchen knives and cleaning supplies.

At a hearing in DC Superior Court Thursday, Barnes’ attorney Anthony Matthews argued police had “no probable cause” to charge his client, the Post reported. He also questioned the credibility of his statements to investigators, calling them “suspicious at best.”

But Judge Renee Raymond ordered Barnes detained pending a March 29 hearing.

“It seems incredibly random,” Raymond said. “The deceased happened to be there. The additional step of decapitating the deceased and removing his limbs—for no reason that Mr. Barnes himself can identify—makes it clear that there is no condition, or combination of conditions, that can reasonably ensure the safety of the community. “

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DPR Construction has completed its 12-story Eleven50 Eastlake life science project in Seattle, the Redwood City, Calif., developer told Construction Dive. The 450,000-square-foot facility includes mission-critical laboratory and office space with retail on the ground floor. DPR declined to contribute to the costs of the project.

Construction work started in January 2021 and is expected to be completed this year. Over the course of the 12-story project, the builder encountered challenges from the pandemic, according to DPR Construction Project Executive Michael Pearson.

“As with most projects launched during the pandemic, our team encountered obstacles along the way, ranging from supply chain issues to COVID-19-related shutdowns,” Pearson said in an email. “We are proud that the team has remained resilient and has mastered the challenges directly.”

San Francisco-based architectural firm Gensler designed the building, which also includes workspaces, restaurants, and event spaces. It will The goal is LEED Platinum and WELL Platinum certificationper Gensler.

The remaining works include the completion of the glass curtain wall; mechanical, electrical and sanitary installations on the roof; landscaping and hardscaping; inner core and lounges, according to DPR. His teams are currently striding through the interior of the building to complete the tenant fit-outs.

Signed tenants at Eleven50 These include pharmaceutical and biotech companies Umoja Biopharma, Variant Bio, Notch, Altpep and Outpace Bio, according to the Daily Journal of Commerce.

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Double digit declines from peak in San Francisco Bay Area, Seattle, San Diego, Phoenix, Las Vegas.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

View of Housing Bubble 2 in the San Francisco Bay Area:

This time it’s not an unemployment crisis that’s hitting the housing market. The job market is still tight with high pay rises – although the tech and social media sectors have started to shake. But it is mortgage rates that have returned to normal pre-QE levels of 6% to 7%, while CPI inflation is hovering around the same range. And they’re colliding with home prices, which have skyrocketed under the Fed’s quantitative easing and interest rate suppression.

And so home prices continued to fall, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index for “January” — which is a three-month moving average of home sales publicly recorded in November, December and January, reflecting deals primarily made from October through December.

On a monthly basis, today’s Case-Shiller index of single-family home prices fell in 19 of the 20 metros it covers. Miami was the only exception, where the index was essentially flat. The 10 biggest dips by month occurred in:

1. Las Vegas: -1.4%
2. San Francisco Bay Area: -1.3%
3. Seattle: -1.4%
4. Phoenix: -1.2%
5. Dallas: -0.9%
6. Denver: -0.9%
7. Chicago: -0.5%
8. Portland: -0.7%
9. Tampa: -0.7%
10. Washington DC: -0.7%

Prices have fallen the most from their respective highs (from May to July 2022) in these metros:

• San Francisco Bay Area: -17.1%
• Seattle: -16.3%
• San Diego: -11.5%
• Phoenix: -10.5%
• Las Vegas: -10.1%
• Denver: -9.5%
• Portland: -8.6%
• Dallas: -8.5%
• Los Angeles: -8.3%
• Boston: -5.7%

Cheaper year-on-year now in four of the 20 subways:

• San Francisco Bay Area: -7.6%
• Seattle: -5.1%
• San Diego: -1.4%
• Portland: -0.5%

Down faster than up is a rare event in real estate markets, but it’s happening in the San Francisco Bay Area, where prices have fallen faster in the eight months since the peak than in the eight months before the peak. The Seattle and Las Vegas subways came close (percentages from and to the top):

• San Francisco Bay Area, May peak: -17.1%; +15.7%.
• Seattle, May peak: -16.3%; +19.7%.
• Las Vegas, July peak: -10.2%; +11.6%.

Methodology. The Case-Shiller Index uses the “sales pair” method and compares sales in the current month to sales of the same homes earlier. Price changes are weighted according to how long ago pre-sales were, and adjustments are made for DIY and other factors (Methodology). This “selling pair” method makes the Case-Shiller Index a more reliable indicator than median price indices, but it lags months behind.

San Francisco Bay The housing market is being impacted not only by mortgage rates but also by the stock market — particularly by IPOs and SPACs, which have largely collapsed, and by the tech and social media giants now laying off high-paying workers. But these home prices released today are based on completed sales in January and earlier, so the recent fireworks are still not reflected. That’s coming.

The Case-Shiller Index for “San Francisco” covers five counties in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area: San Francisco, part of Silicon Valley, part of the East Bay, and part of the North Bay.

• Month to month: -1.3%.
• From the peak in May: -17.1%.
• YoY: -7.6%.
• Lowest reading since May 2021.

Seattle Subway:

• Month to month: -1.4%.
• From the peak in May: -16.3%.
• YoY: -5.1%.
• Lowest reading since September 2021.

San Diego Subway:

• Month by month: -0.4%.
• From the peak in May: -11.5%.
• YoY: -1.4%.
• Lowest reading since January 2022.

Metro Phoenix:

• Month to month: -1.2%.
• From June peak: -10.5%.
• Year over year: flat
• Lowest reading since January 2022.

Las Vegas Subway:

• Month to month: -1.4%.
• From July peak: -10.1%.
• YoY: +0.4%
• Lowest reading since January 2022

Denver Subway:

• Month to month: -0.9%.
• From the peak in May: -9.5%.
• Year-on-year: +1.0%.
• Lowest reading since January 2022.

Portland Subway:

• Month to month: -0.7%.
• From the peak in May: -8.6%.
• YoY: -0.5%.
• Lowest reading since December 2021.

Dallas Subway:

• Month to month: -0.9%.
• From June peak: -8.5%.
• Year over year: +5.0%

Los Angeles Subway:

• Month by month: -0.2%.
• From the peak in May: -8.3%.
• YoY: +0.9%.
• Lowest reading since January 2022.

Boston subway:

• Month by month: -0.3%.
• From June peak: -5.7%.
• YoY: +4.2%

Washington DC Subway:

• Month to month: -0.7%.
• From June peak: -5.0%.
• YoY: +2.4%

Tampa Subway:

• Month to month: -0.7%.
• From peak in July: -4.7%
• Year over year: +10.5%

Miami Subway:

• Month-to-month: basically unchanged (less than +0.1%).
• From peak in July: -2.6%
• YoY: +13.8%

New York subway:

• Month by month: -0.4%.
• From July peak: -2.3%
• YoY: +5.2%

For the Miami Metro, the Case-Shiller Index had a value of 399 points in January and December. The Case-Shiller indices were set at 100 for 2000. So, despite the recent drop, Miami home prices are still up 299% since 2000. This makes Miami the No. 1 in the most glorious real estate bubble in terms of price increases since 2000. Miami moved up to No. 1 because its prices have fallen less than prices in Los Angeles and San Diego, the former No. 1 at different times.

The New York Metro Index score of 270 indicates that housing price inflation has been 172% since 2000, and as crazy as that is, it ends this list of the most glorious real estate bubbles.

In the remaining six markets in the Case-Shiller Index, home prices have risen far less since 2000 and therefore do not qualify for this list. But in all of them, prices have been falling for months. Today’s Case-Shiller Index declines: Chicago (-0.5%), Charlotte (-0.3%), Minneapolis (-0.9%), Atlanta (-0.3%), Detroit (-0 .6%) and Cleveland (-0.6%). ).

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The post The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, March Replace: Greatest Month-to-month Worth Drops Now in Las Vegas, San Francisco, Seattle, Phoenix, Dallas, Denver appeared first on DAILY SAN FRANCISCO BAY NEWS.

There has been a bloodbath of layoffs in the tech industry since last fall.

The Google parent company Alphabet has cut 12,000 jobs and thus terminated the 11,000 jobs announced by Microsoft. Salesforce plans to cut 9,000 employees while Meta parting ways with 11,000. Meanwhile, Amazon is cutting 18,000 people across the country. Yoy

The string of cuts, fueled by recession fears, could have a major impact on big-footprint cities like San Francisco, New York and Seattle, where corporate office workers make up an important part of the inner-city economy, observers say.

“This tech downturn is going to be devastating for Washington, and the long-term impact is going to be pretty profound,” University of Washington marketing professor Jeff Shulman told Bloomberg of the impact of cuts at Microsoft and Amazon. both of which have large employee bases in the state. “Tech companies have fueled so much growth and change that if they slam on the brakes and back up, everything else is in jeopardy.”

Cost-cutting at some companies like Salesforce and Meta includes explicit plans to slash expensive real estate, with the latter abandoning a recently built Manhattan expansion.

In 2022, rental demand was well below historical averages, with San Francisco’s office vacancy rate at more than 27 percent, up from 3.7 before the pandemic, and New York just 0.4 percent below the pandemic-era vacancy record of 19, 6 percent, according to a report by the CBRE Group.

Some fear the layoffs will not only reduce demand for office space, but also slow demand for housing overall.

“If people are afraid of being laid off, they will almost certainly put off making new, huge financial purchases — and buying a home is typically the largest financial transaction in most people’s lives,” said Patrick Carlisle, chief market analyst at Compass , opposite The Real Deal.

It’s worth pointing out, however, that even in places like the Bay Area, just because technology is laid off, economic apocalypse isn’t inevitable.

The story goes on

“So far, the job growth is positive and the unemployment rate is really very low, although that could change in the short term,” Stephen Levy, director and senior economist at the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy, told the San Francisco Chronicle.

Mr. Levy also pointed out that some of the layoffs in the tech space have come as companies laid off additional staff during a pandemic-era boom, such as Salesforce, which nearly doubled its workforce as companies looked for new software solutions.

“So if they drop 10,000, they will still be 21,000 above pre-pandemic levels,” the economist added.

Still, landlords, from homes to businesses, could face tough times.

“It’s an extremely difficult time to be a landlord,” Ruth Colp-Haber, chief executive officer of brokerage firm Wharton Property Advisors, told Bloomberg. “All the costs of running their buildings are increasing, the cost of construction and labor is increasing. That’s all of their day-to-day costs just to open up their buildings for business. Then, on the income side, rents will fall. It’s a real witch’s brew.”

And in 2023, tech layoffs have already exceeded the pace of 2022, reports SFGate.

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E-commerce giant Amazon will close eight of its Amazon Go stores in Seattle, San Francisco and New York. The move comes as part of the company’s effort to reduce costs and realign its retail strategy in a difficult economic environment.

The closures were first reported by GeekWire, and an Amazon spokesperson confirmed the news to TechCrunch. The eight stores are scheduled to remain open until April 1, 2023.

Valuation of the portfolio

Amazon said that like any physical retailer, it regularly evaluates its store portfolio and makes optimization decisions as needed. A company spokesman said: “In this instance, we have decided to close a small number of Amazon Go stores in Seattle, New York City and San Francisco. We remain committed to the Amazon Go format and operate more than 20 Amazon Go stores across the US and will continue to learn which locations and features customers resonate with best as we continue to develop our Amazon Go stores.”

The company introduced its first checkout-free location near its Seattle headquarters in 2016. Amazon has since expanded the concept to include more stores in the United States.

Amazon isn’t the only company looking to streamline its retail operations amid economic uncertainty. Last month, Bloomberg reported that Amazon was pausing the expansion of Amazon Fresh Grocery Stores to consider how to make the stores more competitive with mainstream supermarkets.

Continuous growth

Despite the closures, Amazon remains committed to its checkout-free grocery stores and other new concepts. The company recently opened a new Amazon Go store in Puyallup, Washington and plans to continue expanding the brand.

The move to close the eight stores comes a year after Amazon announced it would close 68 brick-and-mortar retail stores in the United States and the United Kingdom. These closures included the Amazon Books bookstores, pop-up shops in various markets, and the 4-star stores where customers could buy popular and highly rated products on Amazon.com.

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Sources:

To ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this article, we have consulted the following sources:

• TechCrunch: Amazon is closing eight Amazon Go stores in Seattle, San Francisco and New York
• GeekWire: Amazon is closing eight Amazon Go stores in Seattle, San Francisco and New York
• Bloomberg: Amazon pauses expansion of Amazon Fresh Grocery Stores as it evaluates business

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