A rainstorm makes landfall over the Bay Area on Tuesday, April 7, 2009 as the car races across the Bay Area on Tuesday, April 7, 2009 as a car speeds over the Bay Bridge.

(NEXSTAR) — Californians desperate for a break in rain will find a glimmer of hope in a new forecast released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.

The outlook for April leans toward below average rain and snow forecasts for the state.

Cool temperatures and sunshine are expected in Kern, the next rain system will move in on Monday

But don’t pack your umbrellas just yet – there are a few caveats to mention.

First off, there’s more rain in the story before we even get to April. The next 10 days are likely to be very wet as another atmospheric flow is already lurking offshore and heading our way.

(Map: NOAA)

Next week’s atmospheric flux is likely to peak on Tuesday or Wednesday, said National Weather Service meteorologist Dalton Behringer. It’s too early to say exactly which part of the state will be hardest hit, but state climatologist Michael Anderson said earlier this week that the storm’s impact zone could stretch from the Bay Area to San Diego.

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Once this storm has passed things will look a little drier as is usual for April in California. “It’s not like we’re getting into this crazy dry pattern or anything,” Behringer said. “It’s April right now, which is typically the time we would dry out, and we’re seeing that pattern shift to a drier pattern after the end of this month.”

Behringer cautioned against misinterpreting the map (below), which projects forecasts in terms of probabilities, not certainties. The forecast places a 33% to 50% chance of below average rainfall for California in April.

(Map: NOAA)

“That doesn’t mean we won’t see rain,” Behringer said. “This tells you the probability of below normal rainfall, not how much below normal rainfall. … We could still see an atmospheric flow — that doesn’t mean you can’t get those.”

Brian Garcia, a warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Bay Area office, said it could be months before we see longer stretches of dry weather.

“If we go deep into the crystal ball, we might have a few sunny days in the week of the 27th, but in all likelihood we won’t dry out until we get deep into spring and early summer,” he told Nexstar Week last .

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The rain just keeps falling over the San Francisco Bay Area. San Francisco has recorded 15.42 inches of rain since October 1, making it one of the 10 wettest years for the water year to date in 2021 – great news for the drought-stricken region.

Rain is expected until Wednesday; The National Weather Service announced that this rainy season should finally end on Thursday.

A high pressure ridge will build up over the Great Basin, which spans several states, including all of Nevada and parts of California, and will keep conditions dry until Sunday. “At the moment it looks like we could dry out from Wednesday and end with drier days. If we move to Thursday, Friday and Saturday … when we go into the new year we will start drier,” said Roger Gass, a Meteorologist at the weather service.

With the prevailing high pressure, the bone-dry temperatures forecast for the beginning of this week will rise slightly to seasonal levels by the end of the week, with afternoon highs mainly in the upper 40s and 50s and night lows in the 30s and 40s, the weather service said.

At the end of the week there will also be fewer clouds, and offshore winds are expected to develop, blowing from the inland valleys towards the coast, the weather service said. While the Bay Area is expected to stay dry Wednesday through Sunday, it could see more rain as early as the start of the new year.

“The long range shows that we can stay in this wet pattern after the New Year,” said Gass.

Long-term weather models show that rain will set in again next Tuesday, but it is difficult to accurately predict the weather several days later and that forecast could change.

At 5:00 p.m. San Francisco 15:04 “rain since October 1, 2021 is the 8th wettest water year to date (ytd), wettest since 1983 with 15:70” rain for the same period; 1983-1984 La Niña.
SF Top 5 wettest water ytd (end of December 26th):
1. 23.77 “1889
2. 17.68 “1849
3. 17.44 “1885
4. 16.74 “1866
5.16.48 “1852

– NWS Bay Area (@NWSBayArea) December 27, 2021

Wet, stormy conditions are predicted before Wednesday. Heavy rain areas possible and the weather service warned of flooding on the roadways.

RELATED STORY: Weather Service Posts a map showing where snow might fall in the San Francisco Bay Area on Tuesday

A cold gust of wind from western Canada depresses temperatures and snow fell on the highest mountain peaks, including Mount Diablo and Mount Hamilton, on Sunday and Monday. In the interior of the North Bay and East Bay, the snow could fall as much as 300 meters on Tuesday.

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