More than half a million homes and businesses were left without power in southern Michigan Friday night after an ice storm battered the region and officials warned power for many may not return until Sunday.

Across the country, forecasters said a storm would drench Southern California and hit higher elevations with blizzards and heavy snowfall.

Flooding, downed trees and damaged power lines were likely through Saturday morning as the storm swept across the state, the National Weather Service said.

A plow clears snow on Mount Baldy Road in the city of Mount Baldy, California on Friday.Allison Dinner / AFP – Getty Images

In Michigan, nearly 600,000 utility customers were out Friday, according to Poweroutage.us, with outages reported from Lake Michigan to Lake Erie. Over much of the region, temperatures should drop into the 20s overnight and drop into the teens with the wind chill, the National Weather Service said.

Light snowfall was expected across much of the area, the agency said.

In Lansing, city officials initiated a “Code Blue” plan to respond to cold weather, repurposing libraries, community centers and other buildings as heat centers. County officials also opened warm centers in Lenawee County and the Red Cross operated a 24-hour shelter.

Officials urged Kalamazoo residents to prevent frozen pipes by opening cupboards around their lines and running a “pencil-sized” stream of water from a faucet if their internal temperature dropped below 32 degrees.

In Jackson, south of Lansing, resident George Ellis cooked outside on a gas-powered grill while a generator provided enough electricity to keep a refrigerator and space heater running, Lansing-based NBC affiliate WILX reported.

When the broadcaster asked how he and his wife were doing, he answered with a single word: cold.

Garrick Rochow, chief executive officer of the state’s largest utility, Consumers Energy, said Friday that power would be restored to the majority of the company’s customers by Sunday. Rochow described the utility’s response as “all hands on deck” and said 540 crews were deployed across the state.

Detroit-based DTE Energy President Trevor Lauer estimates that 95% of this utility’s homes and businesses will also have power by Sunday.

Speaking to reporters, Lauer described the great winter storm that hit the area as “historic” and likened the quarter inch of ice that fell on the electrical system to a “baby grand piano hanging on those wires.”

Warmer weather is expected this weekend, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees on Sunday.

In California, millions of people were under weather warnings as a major winter storm battered the state with snow, rain and plummeting temperatures.

San Francisco on Friday recorded its lowest temperature on record — 39 degrees, while parts of Northern California that rarely see snow reported several inches or more between Thursday and Friday, according to the weather service.

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In Southern California, the first snowstorm warning ever issued by the National Weather Service’s San Diego office remained in effect through Saturday afternoon. The same warning was issued for the mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura counties for the first time since 1989, the weather service said.

As of 5:23 p.m. local time, between 3 and 6 inches of rain had fallen in parts of Santa Barbara and South Ventura counties, with more rain forecasts and flash flooding described as imminent. A flash flood warning remained in effect until 10 p.m

The storm is expected to hit the Central High Plains by Sunday night, the weather service said.

Tim Stelloh is a breaking news reporter for NBC News Digital.

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In the first 10 months of Housing Bust 2 (now), the median price plummeted much faster than it did in the first 10 months of Housing Bust 1 (2007-11).

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

There’d better be a halfway decent spring sales season already underway in San Francisco and Silicon Valley, because it’s getting pretty bad pretty fast. But it’s hard to imagine how good the spring sales season can be amid countless reports of layoffs, working from home elsewhere, and big numbers on how many people have left Silicon Valley and San Francisco. The city of San Francisco alone lost about 56,000 residents, or about 6.3% of its population, according to census data from 2020 to 2022, despite the completion of about 12,000 new housing units during the same period.

The nine-county Bay Area median price fell another 8% in January, 17% year over year and 35% or $540,000 in 10 months after the crazy peak in March 2022. $1.54 million to $1.00 million US dollars, according to the California Association of Realtors.

Bay Area single-family home sales fell 37% in January compared to January last year. The slump in sales has been moving for months in a year-on-year comparison.

Seasonally, January is generally the worst month of the year for the median price of sales closed in January, reflecting deals negotiated in December. So there is hope that this will reverse during the spring sales season that everyone is praying for.

But where is this requested demand supposed to come from during the spring sales season? People are now worried about their jobs and buying a still ridiculously overpriced home with mortgage rates once again approaching 7% is probably not the top priority. There is also the fear of catching a falling knife. The area has lost population. And amidst layoffs and hiring freezes, not many people are now being hired from elsewhere with big salary promises.

But the 35% plunge hasn’t done much damage yet more broadly, because the price increase before that was so steep and so insane that not many people actually bought homes at those insane prices in 2021 and 2022. Most people who bought in 2019 or earlier — the vast majority of homeowners — are still afloat.

In other words, the 35% plunge didn’t even take down the entire top of pandemic-free money. But the illusions of sudden wealth vanished as quickly as they appeared.

As you can see from the jagged line on the charts, median prices are volatile and seasonal and can be skewed by the mix of what is actually selling, etc. etc. So they must be treated with care. But this slump is historic nonetheless.

Blast from the Past: Housing Bust 1 vs. Housing Bust 2. During the Housing Bust 1 that began in the Bay Area in mid-2007, the median price plummeted 59% in 21 months, from May 2007 ($789,250) to February 2009 ($321,110) when it bottomed out.

Ominously, the median price has only fallen 23% over the first 10 months of Housing Bust 1, compared to 35% over the past 10 months in Housing Bust 2. This chart is a blast from the past, Housing Bust 1 in all its glory:

The five major counties of the Bay Area.

San Francisco: The median single-family home price has fallen 33%, or $675,000, since its breathtakingly idiotic peak in March 2022, falling from $2.06 million to $1.38 million in 10 months. Year over year, the median price plummeted 15%.

The January median price was about the same as January 2019. The first time the median price reached $1.38 million was in February 2016. The spring sales season should be better:

Silicon Valley: San Mateo County: The median single-family home price has fallen 32% since its April 2022 peak, down $776,000 in nine months, from $2.40 million in April to $1.62 million in December. Year over year, the median price plummeted 19%.

This median price remained almost unchanged in January 2021 and was first seen in February 2018.

Silicon Valley: Santa Clara County (including San Jose): The median single-family home price rose in January, but was still down 22%, or $440,000, from its April 2022 peak, after falling from $1.97 million to April 1 in nine months .53 million US dollars had fallen. Year-over-year, the median price fell by 11%.

Alameda County (East Bay, including Oakland): The median price for single-family homes fell 31%, or $479,000, from $1.54 million to $1.06 million from the May 2022 peak. Year-over-year, the median price fell by 15%.

Contra Costa County (East Bay): The median single-family home price fell 30%, or $313,500, from its April 2022 peak of $1.05 million to $736,500. Year-over-year, the median price fell by 11%.

Median time on market in the Bay Area rose to 32 days in January before the property was sold or pulled from the market for failing to generate a deal. This was an increase from 28 days in December 2022 and 12 days in January 2022.

So a good spring sales season – or at least not a disaster – is what everyone is praying for. In January, mortgage rates had fallen to nearly 6% and the stock market had skyrocketed, but that’s over. The daily reading of the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate is already back above 6.75% amid renewed inflation fears and dashed Fed Pivot hopes, according to Mortgage News Daily.

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No dear, this is not seasonal.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Declines in house prices have turned into a relentless drumbeat. Today, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index for “October” was released. Time frame: A three-month moving average of closed home sales that were entered into public records in August, September, and October; these are deals that were largely made in July through September.

Since then, home prices have dropped further nationwide, as we know from different median price indices; for example, in the city of San Francisco, the median house price has now plunged by 27% from the peak in April.

The Case-Shiller Index here – it covers 20 metropolitan areas – is a more reliable indicator than the sometimes-crazy median-price indices that can be heavily skewed by a change in the mix of homes that are sold. But the Case-Shiller index lags months behind.

On a month-to-month basis, house prices dropped again in all 20 metros that are in the Case-Shiller Index. On a year-over-year basis, the price gains were further slashed, with the condo index for San Francisco now negative; and the house price index just about flat.

The biggest month-to-month drops in today’s “October” index occurred in:

• Dallas: -2.1%
• Vegas: -1.8%
• San Francisco: -1.7%
• Phoenix: -1.6%
• Denver: -1.1%
• Seattle: -1.0%
• Boston: -1.0%
• Miami: -1.0%

From their various peakswhich range from May to July, house prices dropped the most in:

• San Francisco Bay Area: -13.0%
• Seattle metro: -12.2%
• San Diego metro: -8.5%
• Denver subway: -6.7%
• Los Angeles metro: -6.6%
• Phoenix subway: -5.9%
• Dallas subway: -5.6%
• Las Vegas metro: -5.2%.

In the San Francisco Bay Area, house prices dropped by 1.7% in “October” (three month moving average of sales that were entered into public records in August, September, and October), and are now down by 13.0% from the peak in May.

Plunging faster than it had spiked: Over those five months since the peak, the index plunged by 51.4 points. Over the five months to the peak, it had spiked by 48.6 points.

The five monthly drops from the peak have nearly wiped out the year-over-year gain (+0.6%). The Case-Shiller Index for San Francisco Bay Area condos is already down by 1.3% year-over-year.

The index for “San Francisco” covers five counties of the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area: San Francisco, part of Silicon Valley, part of the East Bay, and part of the North Bay.

In the Seattle metro, house prices dropped 1.0% in October from September, and are now down 12.2% from the peak in May.

Over those five months since the peak, the index plunged by 50.4 points. Over the five months to the peak, it had spiked by 55.9 points.

These five months of price drops slashed the year-over-year gain to 4.5%.

San Diego subway:

• Month over month: -0.7%.
• From the peak in May: -8.5%.
• Year over year: +7.5%.
• Down in five months from peak in May: -36.5 points
• Up in five months to peak in May: 53.4 points.

Denver subway:

• Month over month: -1.1%.
• From the peak in May: -6.7%.
• Year over year: +7.9%.
• Down in five months from peak in May: -22.2 points
• Up in five months to peak in May: +39.3 points.

Los Angeles subway:

• Month over month: -0.6%.
• From the peak in May: -6.6%.
• Year over year: +6.6%.
• Down in five months from peak in May: -27.8 points
• Up in five months to peak in May: 44.3 points.

Changing leadership among the most splendid housing bubbles. For Los Angeles, the current index value of 395 means that home prices ballooned by 295% since January 2000, when the index was set at 100. Based on the increase since 2000, Los Angeles was the #1 Most Splendid Housing Bubble in America until February 2022, when it was bypassed by San Diego.

But both were bypassed by Miami in August 2022, as prices in Los Angeles and San Diego were plunging, while prices in Miami had just started to drop. So Miami has become the #1 Most Splendid Housing Bubble in America, with prices still up by 301% from January 2000. Now they’re all chasing each other down.

Methodology of the Case-Shiller Index: The index uses the “sales pairs” method, comparing sales in the current month to when the same houses sold previously. The price changes within each sales pair are integrated into the index for the metro, are weighted based on how long ago the prior sale occurred, and adjustments are made for home improvements and other factors (methodology).

Phoenix metro:

• Month over month: -1.6%.
• From the peak in June: -5.9%.
• Year over year: +9.6%
• Down in four months from peak in June: -20.4 points
• Up in four months to peak in June: +29.2 points.

Dallas subway:

• Month over month: -2.1%.
• From the peak in June: -5.6%.
• Year over year: +13.5%
• Down in four months from peak in June: -10.3 points
• Up in four months to peak in June: +36.3 points.

Las Vegas subway:

• Month over month: -1.8%.
• From the peak in July: -5.4%.
• Year over year: +9.4%

• Down in three months from peak in July: -16.3 points
• Up in three months to peak in July: +17.0 points.

Portland subway:

• Month over month: -0.9%.
• From the peak in May: -5.2%.
• Year over year: +5.4%.
• Down in five months from peak in May: -17.7 points
• Up in five months to peak in May: +30.4 points.

Boston metro:

• Month over month: -1.0%.
• From the peak in June: -4.0%.
• Year over year: +7.6%

• Down in four months from peak in June: -12.5 points
• Up in four months to peak in June: +24.2 points.

Washington DC subway:

• Month over month: -0.5%.
• From the peak in June: -3.6%.
• Year over year: +6.0%

• Down in four months from peak in June: -11.3 points
• Up in four months to peak in June: +17.5 points.

Tampa subway:

• Month over month: -0.8%.
• From peak in July: -2.1%
• Year over year: +20.5%

• Down in three months from peak in July: -8.0 points
• Up in three months to peak in July: +29.3 points.

Miami subway:

• Month over month: -1.0%.
• From peak in July: -2.1%
• Year over year: +21.0%

• Down in three months from peak in July: -8.6 points
• Up in three months to peak in July: +32.7 points.

In the New York metro:

• Month over month: -0.2%.
• From peak in July: -1.5%
• Year over year: +9.3%

• Down in three months from peak in July: -4.1 points
• Up in three months to peak in July: +12.0 points.

In the New York metro, house price inflation since 2000 amounted to 172%, based on the Case-Shiller Index value of 273 today. This makes it the taillight of the Most Splendid Housing Bubbles.

In the remaining six cities in the 20-City Case-Shiller Index, house price inflation has been less, and they don’t qualify for this roster. But they also experienced month-to-month declines in the “October” index, following the declines September: Chicago (-0.5%), Charlotte (-0.9%), Minneapolis (-0.7%), Atlanta (-0.8), Detroit (-0.9%), and Cleveland (-1.0%).

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LOS ANGELES – When Angeleno Wine Co. reopened its tasting room, co-owner Amy Luftig Viste was torn as old friends reunited for the first time since the pandemic closed so many stores that big cities looked like ghost towns.

Even with limited capacity, lively conversations flowed from the tables between the casks of aging wine and echoed off the brick walls of the winery, tucked away in an industrial area on the edge of downtown Los Angeles.

“It felt like the winery had come back to life,” Luftig Viste said on Sunday, the day after it reopened after being closed for but two weeks for the past 13 months.

The noise in a small space is expected to get louder if capacity is allowed to double to 50% as Los Angeles and San Francisco lead the way for California operations to reopen more widely.

The state’s major cities are likely to be the only major urban areas in the state that have met virus case thresholds for the least restrictive level as of Tuesday. This allows indoor bars to reopen, allows larger crowds to cheer for Major League Baseball Dodgers and Giants, and expand capacity in restaurants, cinemas, amusement parks, gyms, and other facilities.

It’s a notable turnaround considering that California was the epicenter of the US virus outbreak just a few months ago.

The two cities weathered the pandemic differently, but appear in the same spot after a nationwide shutdown in March 2020. Streets, shutters and restaurants have been closed and office buildings have been darkened.

While San Francisco largely defeated coronavirus by avoiding it, Los Angeles was nearly beaten during the winter flood. In the worst case scenario, more than 500 people died daily in California, and hospitals in the LA area were barely able to handle the overwhelming influx of patients.

San Francisco briefly hit the Least Restrictive Yellow Level for a brief period in October, the only urban area to do so before an alarming spike forced a withdrawal in some cases. LA only emerged from the most restrictive tier in March.

Now California has the lowest case rate in the country. Los Angeles County, home to a quarter of the state’s nearly 40 million residents and a disproportionately large number of the state’s 60,000 deaths, did not record a single COVID-19 death on Sunday or Monday.

As the spring warms up, the highways are congested, workers are returning to offices, and people are going to restaurants and breweries.

On Sunday, drivers in the Arts District in downtown LA circled the block looking for parking. The guests filled the sidewalk tables in the sausage kitchen, ate sausages and drank Belgian and German beer. A line of people waiting to be seated at Angel City Brewery stretched down the street.

Chris Sammons said he felt a civic obligation to get out and support businesses.

“It almost feels like a chore to be involved with the city,” said Sammons. “We have to bring LA back to life.”

It was the first time for his friend Stephen Tyler to say he was excited after crouching and vaccinating himself for so long.

“It’s just good to be back in town, to be with people,” said Tyler.

In San Francisco, business has picked up in Mixt, a popular lunch spot for salad lovers in the financial district. But it’s not pre-pandemic levels with lines spilling outdoors, said Leslie Silverglide, the chain’s co-founder and CEO. She plans to open two more stores in the city center in the coming weeks.

“It seems like people are coming back,” she said. “They look forward to having lunch with colleagues again.”

Fear of contracting the virus resulted in a huge drop in the number of local transport drivers. Jason Alderman said he felt like a kid on his first day of school riding a local train to San Francisco. He works for the online payment start-up Fast, which will reopen its headquarters as soon as San Francisco allows it at the end of March.

“Instead of feeling like a hollowed-out ghost town that people were quick to leave, it felt like there were green shoots of life,” he said. “I felt a stab of energy that was there earlier.”

When the lockdown was issued in March 2020, an estimated 137,500 employees at companies in San Francisco, including Google, Facebook and Uber, appeared to have disappeared overnight.

Moving trucks being moved from households to more spacious suburban homes and younger folks just packed up their cars and left as they could work from anywhere. Apartment rents have gone down, but now they’re increasing.

The vacancy rate in San Francisco is 18% compared to 10% last year, said John Chang, senior vice president at Marcus & Millichap, a commercial real estate finance and advisory firm. In Los Angeles the vacancy rate is 17.5% compared to 13.5% in the previous year.

Perhaps more tellingly, only 14% of key cards are used to access offices in San Francisco, compared to 24% in LA. At the other end of the spectrum is Dallas, where data showed that 41% of the cards were used, reflecting the different approaches to the virus across the two states.

Chang said workers suddenly left San Francisco when the original shutdown order went into effect. He expects the return to be gradual.

Lisa Elder, a paralegal who has been with her office since July, said that even with some restaurants and cafes that recently reopened, the area is a shadow of their former selves.

“Before COVID filled this place, there were tons of people eating in the alley, and now it’s like quiet. It’s crazy, ”she said.

At Angeleno Wine, Luftig Viste said most of their customers had been vaccinated and they were all looking forward to being back outside.

“It’s just a great honor to be where people come to break the seal when we get out,” she said.

———

Har reported from San Francisco. Olga R. Rodriguez contributed to this report from San Francisco.

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