The unprecedented surge of COVID-19 that has slammed the Bay Area in recent weeks may finally be on the downswing, according to both city and state data.

While some of the apparent plateau may be the result of delayed reporting, many experts believe case numbers really are starting to level off here, as they have in some other parts of the country.

“City cases plateaued,” Dr. Bob Wachter, the chair of the department of medicine at UCSF, wrote on Twitter on Monday.

His UCSF colleague Dr. Peter Chin-Hong competed. “While some may call it an early victory call and wait for a few more data points over the next few days, it does appear real,” Chin-Hong, who is an expert in infectious diseases, told SFGATE.

dr George Rutherford, also at UCSF, isn’t ready to officially call it the peak, but did say the timeline matches models that have been predicting California cases will peak in mid-January.

“You’d expect it to peak earlier in San Francisco than in other places in California,” Rutherford told SFGATE. “After all, we were where the first case was identified in the US”

Rutherford said the hospitalization peak usually lags about one to one and a half weeks behind the peak in cases. However, while the number of people testing positive in the hospital has continued to climb in both state and city data, UCSF hospital cases have been flat for a week.

“At UCSF, we have been holding steady with COVID hospitalizations since Jan. 11 with no major increases,” Chin-Hong said.

Some experts have warned that hospitalization data exaggerates the severity of the current wave, as it includes both those who were hospitalized for COVID-19 and those who were hospitalized for other issues and then tested positive for COVID-19, but might have only mild or no symptoms

dr Jeanne Noble, the head of COVID response for UCSF’s emergency department, told SFGATE last week that after reviewing the charts of every COVID-positive patient at UCSF hospitals on Jan. 4, she determined 70% of COVID-19 cases were “incidental positives, “Patients who tested positive after being admitted to the hospital for reasons such as such as a hip fracture or a bowel obstruction.

Her data suggests that in January 2022, fewer people are being admitted to hospitals because of severe COVID illness than in the winter of 2021. That conclusion is supported by data showing that, in San Francisco, fewer COVID-19 patients have required admission to intensive care units.

“The 2022 hospitalization peak and curve will look very different in 2022 compared to 2021 — significantly lower use of mechanical ventilation, shorter hospital stays, a higher proportion of people admitted with COVID (incidentally — these are folks who were screened positive for infection when they were admitted with something else) rather than because of COVID,” Chin-Hong said. “The lower rate of severe illness is part omicron related, but certainly and substantially helped by the high vaccination rate — very different from one year ago when they were just beginning to be rolled out.”

This trend can also be seen elsewhere in the Bay Area. At the start of the month, Marin County recorded a spike in COVID-19 hospitalizations. But of the 19 people hospitalized in the county, at least 42% were incidental cases, including five patients in a psychiatric ward who had no symptoms of the virus. That number rose to 48% this week.

On Jan 11, SF Health Director Dr Grant Colfax said while hospitalizations had been increasing in the city, the “numbers are not climbing nearly at the level that they would have if we didn’t have such great coverage with vaccines.” In San Francisco, 85% of the eligible population (residents 5 and over) is fully vaccinated.

“We are optimistic that because of our city’s high vaccination and booster rates, we will get through this omicron surge without running out of those all-important intensive care unit beds,” Colfax said.

Wastewater samples may also provide a clue that the omicron surge has peaked. Santa Clara County is seeing a decline in the amount of virus found in such samples, as are San Francisco and some parts of Marin County.

“Across the Bay Area, the epidemiology has mostly been shared,” Marin County health officer Dr. Matt Willis said. “As a region, we’ve traveled together through most stages of the pandemic; we’ve moved together on the timing and scale of waves we’ve experienced. So when Santa Clara is seeing evidence of a plateau, that can be reassuring for the Bay Area as a whole, but it’s too early to tell.”

Rutherford cautioned that even if we have hit the peak, the virus will continue to be present in the community for several weeks.

“Half the cases will occur in the downslope. There are a lot more cases to come,” he said.

Last week, Colfax said the peak is in sight and he expects the city to turn the corner soon, but he emphasized that people should still get vaccinated if they haven’t already.

“If you are up to date on your vaccinations, it is extremely unlikely you would be hospitalized due to COVID,” Colfax said.

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If you didn’t make it to the sierra this year to see the fall foliage, you’re still in luck. Fall colors are currently peaking in many areas of the Bay Area.

Although there is minimal natural fall color in the California coast, there are still plenty of options for foliage in the area. Options include coastal mountains, public gardens or arboretums, and the Wine Country vineyards.

“When it comes to the Bay Area, the San Francisco Peninsula is often good,” said John Poimiroo, who runs CaliforniaFallColor.com. It publishes daily blog updates with photos showing the latest fall color conditions across the state.

Fall colors on display along Acapulco Drive in Campbell.

John Poimiroo / Courtesy CaliforniaFallColor.com

The best places to see the fall foliage in the East Bay are Danville, which Poimiroo says has peaked, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek. On the peninsula, Burlingame should be many dark colors, as should Los Altos, Hillsborough, and Campbell.

“Instead of driving around aimlessly, I’ll find a sidewalk cafe in Danville or Burlingame Avenue and then maybe enjoy some of the neighborhood colors,” said Poimiroo.

The Santa Cruz Mountains have some beautiful fall foliage, including Uvas Canyon County Park, Patchen Pass, Summit Road, Roaring Camp, Highway 9, and Stevens Canyon Road. However, the colors at higher elevations are most likely above the peak.

In this photo, Vishal Mishra found beautiful fall foliage along Stevens Canyon Road in Cupertino.

Vishal Mishra

According to Sandy Steinman of California Fall Color, the UC Berkeley Botanical Garden is the most reliable color in the Bay Area. “The streets of Berkeley are full of color,” she noted. “A mix of early, full colors and past highlights, especially the Liquidambars.”

A nice hike to see some fall colors in the East Bay is the Wildcat Creek Trail in Tilden Regional Park.

Fall colors are abundant along the Wildcat Creek Trail in Tilden Regional Park in Berkeley, California.

Douglas Zimmerman / SFGATE

In San Francisco, the Japanese Tea Garden and the San Francisco Botanical Garden in Golden Gate Park have some lovely lace colors.

In Marin, trees that change color line many streets of downtown San Rafael. If you’re heading to West Marin, the drive on Sir Francis Drake through Samuel P. Taylor State Park features some beautiful patches of golden and yellow fall colors interspersed with sequoia trees.

Fall colors will peak on November 18, 2021 along Sir Francis Drake Boulevard in Samuel P. Taylor State Park in West Marin.

Douglas Zimmerman / SFGATE

Another good bet is to go to Wine Country. “The vineyards are really beautiful. Each vineyard has a different type and variety, so the autumn colors appear at different times, ”said Poimiroo.

“The tip color is found in late-ripening vineyards,” he continued. “So go to areas where Cabernet Sauvignon is grown. The Dry Creek Valley and Alexander Valley in northern Sonoma County are a destination.

“And of course you can add wine tasting with the fall color viewing,” added Poimiroo.

The Trentadue Winery vineyards look beautiful and will turn color in November 2020 in Geyserville, California.

David Laurence Sharp

For the latest California fall conditions, visit californiafallcolor.com.

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