In 2012, while her investigation was ongoing, Hoeper's claim alleges that Herrera demoted her, closed the investigation and then fired her earlier that year. She claims that her demotion and firing were in retaliation for her own efforts to expose financial improprieties in the prosecutor's office – including her suspicions that someone was receiving kickbacks.

Herrera is out of town and cannot be reached for comment. In an email, his spokesman Matt Dorsey said the claim reflected “baseless allegations of misconduct by a disgruntled former employee.”

“Although we generally cannot discuss personnel matters, the circumstances of Ms. Hoeper's separation were thoroughly reviewed by outside counsel,” he continued, “and we are confident that the San Francisco District Attorney's Office will prevail over the case will be decided.”

Haase declined to comment and Rothschild did not respond to a request for comment.

Tree roots and sewer pipes

Hoeper's allegations involve several small plumbing companies whose activities have led to a flood of complaints from homeowners to police, city officials and even the FBI, according to documents and interviews. For years, salespeople from the companies went door-to-door in neighborhoods, claiming that the roots of city street trees were damaging homeowners' sewer lines and offering to replace them for free.

To get the job done, homeowners were asked to file legal claims with the state attorney general's office for up to $10,000. After the claims were settled, the homeowners were supposed to pay the money to the plumbing companies that replaced the sewer lines.

Some people who encountered the sellers suspected a scam.

Michael Zack and Odilon Vasconcelos, former operators of a hair salon on Guerrero Street, said in interviews that in 2011, a salesman for a plumbing company called Drainbusters Plumbing obtained their signatures under false pretenses, creating a $10,000 claim for one New hair salon submitted sewer line for her salon.

The claim was “ridiculous,” Zack said, because there was nothing wrong with the salon's plumbing and the nearest street tree was a sapling so far down the block that its roots couldn't possibly have reached the salon. Additionally, the men do not own the building and therefore cannot legally claim the repairs, he said. Still, prosecutors approved the lawsuit, court records show.

Zack was suspicious, emailed Mayor Ed Lee and other officials and eventually called Haase at the DA's claims office. Zack said the officer told him that the salesman's behavior was “unethical, but not illegal” and he asked Zack to turn over the $10,000 damages settlement that the city had paid him and Vasconcelos to the plumbing salesman .

A review of public records shows that from 2009 to 2011, San Francisco paid $8.9 million on about 1,100 claims in these cases.

At first, Zack and Vasconcelos were reluctant, but they ultimately paid the plumbing company the damage money after a small claims court judge ordered them to do so, records show.

In another case, the owner of a Mission District restaurant called police on a Drainbusters vendor in 2012 after he allegedly trespassed on a sewer cleanout, according to a police report. Apparently the seller wanted to convince the property owners that tree roots were damaging their sewers.

Riad Khano, owner of Drainbusters, said his company only performed necessary, city-approved repairs to sewer lines. The city saved significant costs by paying private sanitation companies to do the work, he claimed, calling Department of Public Works crews notoriously inefficient. The city has stopped paying for repairs to private sewer lines because of budget problems, he said.

A few people have complained about his vendors, Khano said, but the complaints are unfounded.

Claim the FBI tipped her off

In her lawsuit, Hoeper says the FBI alerted her to the alleged billing fraud in 2011 after agents received a series of complaints from homeowners. Hoeper hired two investigators to investigate.

She concluded that the city had no legal obligation to pay the claims. No city in California routinely pays for tree root damage to private sewer lines, she said in her lawsuit, and neither has San Francisco for most of its history. But beginning in 2002, prosecutors began approving these claims, sometimes within days of their filing.

She claimed that her investigation found case after case where sewer lines were replaced even though there was no sign of damage or the bills were clearly padded.

In 2012, six months after it began, Hoeper said she told Herrera about her investigation. Herrera asked her for a written report, she said. Shortly after reviewing the matter, he dismissed her as the main trial representative and transferred her to the public prosecutor's office, according to her statements. She said she was fired last January, the day Herrera was sworn in for his fourth term.

A review of public records shows that from 2009 to 2011, San Francisco paid $8.9 million on about 1,100 claims for damage to sewer property or tree care problems that the city described as sewer line damage, which included root damage to private sewer lines could belong. The average payout was about $8,000. Around 140 applications were rejected. In a few cases, the payments went to plumbing companies. Normally the payment went to the property owners.

Public records also show the city stopped paying for private sewer repairs shortly after Hoeper said she reported to Herrera.

City records show that on June 20, 2012, Edward Harrington, then general manager of the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, issued a memo stating that no “tree root intrusion” claims should be paid, it said unless he or the city's construction manager personally approved them in advance.

Since then, court records show prosecutors have successfully defeated several small claims lawsuits from homeowners seeking damages for tree root damage to their sewer lines. In court, the city's lawyers contend that the city was never responsible for the cost of such repairs.

Herrera, the city's top law official since 2001, has built an image as a champion of good government and consumer protection. Hoeper was one of Herrera's closest collaborators for years.

In 2003, when a legal newspaper named Hoeper one of the “Top 50 Women Trial Lawyers” in California, Herrera issued a press release praising Hoeper for her efforts to combat public corruption.

Hoeper's claim states that Rothschild, the head of the claims office, was outraged by her investigation into his unit.

According to her account, Rothschild confronted her and angrily declared, “I will not tolerate this.” In another encounter before her demotion, Hoeper claimed that Rothschild accused her of “picking up” his assistant and threatened a “hunger strike, if she continues with the investigation.”

In her lawsuit, Hoeper is demanding reinstatement and back pay and other damages.

This story was edited by Amy Pyle and copied by Christine Lee and Nikki Frick.

The post S.F. Lawyer Claims She Was Fired for Investigating Suspected Cost Rip-off appeared first on DAILY SAN FRANCISCO BAY NEWS.

In 2012, while her probe was underway, Hoeper says in her claim that Herrera demoted her and shut down the investigation, and then fired her earlier this year. She contends that her demotion and firing were in retaliation for what she said were her efforts to expose financial improprieties — including her suspicion that someone was receiving kickbacks — in the city attorney’s office.

Herrera is out of town and unavailable for comment. In an email, his spokesman, Matt Dorsey, said the claim reflected “baseless allegations of wrongdoing from a disgruntled former employee.”

“While we generally cannot discuss personnel issues, the circumstances of Ms. Hoeper’s separation were thoroughly reviewed by outside counsel,” he continued, “and we’re confident that the San Francisco City Attorney’s Office will be vindicated when the case is adjudicated.”

Haase declined to comment, and Rothschild didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Tree Roots and Sewer Lines

Hoeper’s allegations concern several small plumbing companies whose activities have prompted a flurry of homeowners’ complaints to police, city officials and even the FBI, according to documents and interviews. For years, salesmen for the companies went door to door in residential districts, claiming the roots of city street trees were damaging homeowners’ sewer lines and offering to replace them for free.

To get the work done, homeowners were told to file legal claims for as much as $10,000 with the city attorney’s office. After the claims were paid, the homeowners were supposed to pay the money to the plumbing contractors, who replaced the sewer lines.

Some people who encountered the salesmen suspected a scam.

Michael Zack and Odilon Vasconcelos, former operators of a hair salon on Guerrero Street, said in interviews that in 2011, a salesman for a plumbing company called Drainbusters Plumbing had obtained their signatures under false pretenses and used them to file a $10,000 claim for a new sewer line for their salon.

The claim was “ridiculous,” Zack said, because nothing was wrong with the salon’s plumbing, and the nearest street tree was a sapling so far down the block that its roots couldn’t possibly have extended to the salon. Besides, the men didn’t own the building and thus legally couldn’t file a claim for the repair, he said. Nevertheless, the city attorney’s office approved the claim, court records show.

Suspicious, Zack emailed Mayor Ed Lee and other officials and ultimately called Haase in the city attorney’s claims bureau. Zack said the official told him that the salesman’s conduct was “unethical but not illegal” and told Zack to turn over to the plumbing salesman the $10,000 claim settlement the city had issued to him and Vasconcelos.

A review of public records shows that from 2009 to 2011, San Francisco paid $8.9 million on about 1,100 claims in these cases.

At first, Zack and Vasconcelos balked, but ultimately they paid the claim money to the plumbing company after being ordered to do so by a judge in small claims court, records show.

In another case, the owner of a Mission District restaurant called police on a Drainbusters salesman in 2012, after he allegedly pried open a sewer cleanout without permission, according to a police report. The salesman apparently was hoping to convince property owners that tree roots were damaging their sewers.

Riad Khano, owner of Drainbusters, said his company did only necessary, city-authorized sewer line repairs. The city saved significant money by paying private plumbing companies for the work, he claimed, calling Department of Public Works crews notoriously inefficient. The city stopped paying for repairs to private sewer lines because of budget problems, he said.

A few people had complained about his salesmen, Khano said, but the complaints were unfounded.

Claim That FBI Tipped Her Off

In her claim, Hoeper says the FBI tipped her to the suspected billing scam in 2011, after agents received a series of complaints from homeowners. Hoeper assigned two investigators to the probe.

She concluded that the city had no legal responsibility to pay any of the claims. No city in California routinely pays for tree root damage to private sewer lines, she said in her claim, and for most of its history, San Francisco didn’t either. But starting in 2002, the city attorney’s office began approving those claims, sometimes within days after they were submitted.

She contended that her probe found case after case in which sewer lines were being replaced, even though there was no evidence of damage or bills obviously were padded.

In 2012, six months after it began, Hoeper said she told Herrera of her investigation. Herrera asked her for a written report, she said. Soon after reviewing it, by her account, he removed her as chief trial deputy and transferred her to the district attorney’s office. She said she was fired last January, on the day Herrera was sworn in for his fourth term.

A review of public records shows that from 2009 to 2011, San Francisco paid $8.9 million on about 1,100 claims for what the city described as sewer property damage or tree maintenance issues, categories that could include root damage to private sewer lines. The average payout was about $8,000. About 140 claims were rejected. In a handful of cases, payments went to plumbing companies. Usually, payment went to property owners.

Public records also show the city stopped paying for private sewer repairs soon after Hoeper says she made her report to Herrera.

On June 20, 2012, city records show that Edward Harrington, then the general manager of the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, issued a memo saying no claims for “tree root intrusion” should be paid unless he or the city’s public works director personally approved them in advance.

Since then, court records show the city attorney’s office has successfully defended several small claims lawsuits brought by homeowners seeking compensation for tree root damage to their sewer lines. In court, the city’s lawyers contend that the city never has been responsible for paying for such repairs.

Herrera, the city’s top legal officer since 2001, has cultivated an image as a champion of good government and consumer protection. For years, Hoeper was one of Herrera’s closest aides.

In 2003, when a legal newspaper named Hoeper one of the “top 50 women litigators”in California, Herrera issued a news release praising Hoeper for her efforts to stamp out public corruption.

Hoeper’s claim says Rothschild, the claims bureau chief, was outraged by her investigation of his unit.

By her account, Rothschild confronted her, angrily declaring, “I will not stand for this.” In another encounter before she was demoted, Hoeper asserted that Rothschild accused her of “picking on” his assistant and threatened a “hunger strike if she persisted with the investigation.”

In her claim, Hoeper asks to be reinstated and awarded back pay and other damages.

This story was edited by Amy Pyle and copy edited by Christine Lee and Nikki Frick.

The post S.F. Lawyer Claims She Was Fired for Investigating Suspected Cost Rip-off appeared first on DAILY SAN FRANCISCO BAY NEWS.

At US$5 million (£4.04 million) per eligible person, it is the largest slavery redress since the end of the American Civil War.

A city-appointed committee in San Francisco is recommending that tens of thousands of people receive that amount as a grant to offset the legacy of “maintaining and expanding the legacy of slavery.”

A 60-page report by the committee said that while California never formally instituted slavery, city policies had for decades “codified the systematic oppression and marginalization of black people.”

San Francisco’s board of directors must vote this summer on whether to accept the proposals in part or in full. But the trial is already proving to be a major test for San Francisco’s notoriously liberal citizens, who have recently swung to the right in response to rising crime and homelessness.

Eric McDonnell, chair of the African American Reparations Advisory Committee (AARAC), said I Amends were a way of telling black San Franciscans that “we know we have debts that we will make every effort to pay.”

He said, “This is a pivotal, substantial moment for San Francisco to consciously and consciously embrace its history, thereby creating the opportunity for real, substantial healing for all.”

The 15-member AARAC was formed in late 2020 after the death of George Floyd sparked a nationwide vote on race issues in America.

In the case of San Francisco, the report says that it was a Ku Klux Klan stronghold and that during the “urban renewal” era of the 1950s, black residents were barred from buying houses.

Black people were effectively barred from urban jobs for decades, and entire black neighborhoods were devastated. The effects have been reflected across generations and are particularly galling in one of the country’s wealthiest cities.

Although more than 60 billionaires live in San Francisco, there are 7,000 homeless people, around 40 percent of whom are black, although African Americans make up only 5 percent of the population.

Black people used to make up about 15 percent of the city, but they have been driven out by the factors that the indemnity seeks to make up for.

The last attempt of this magnitude came during the Restoration in the 1860s with Abraham Lincoln’s promise to give 100 acres of land to formerly enslaved people—a promise rescinded by his successor as President, Andrew Jackson.

Mr McDonnell said: “Now we are generations behind and the majority of black people live in poverty because the path that would have led them elsewhere has never been restored.”

The committee came up with the $5 million figure in a way that “was less scientific than it might suggest,” McDonnell said.

“In a very simple business environment, you need capital to rebuild. We did some rough calculations on housing, access to health care and your basic needs… We landed on this number. There have been discussions about making it higher. We agreed on $5 million no matter how hard we have to fight for it,” he said.

Other measures include increasing the income of black people from lower-income households for 250 years until they reach the region’s median income, which stood at $97,000 in 2021.

The report also proposes debt relief aimed at paying off “all educational, personal, credit card and short-term loan debt” and an expansion of black-run banks.

There should also be sweeping reforms of the education system, health care system and criminal justice system, including a bursary for those “at risk of being involved in the judiciary”.

To qualify, residents must be at least 18 years old and have identified themselves as Black or African American on public documents for 10 years.

You must also have been born or immigrated to San Francisco between 1940 and 1996 and have lived in the city for the past 13 years. Another way to qualify is to be a direct descendant of someone imprisoned by what the report called the “failed war on drugs.”

More on this US policy

San Francisco has a widespread homelessness problem that is exacerbated by the high cost of living in the area (Photo: Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency/Getty)

It sounds transformative, but as Mr. McDonnell admits, the first question to answer is who will pay for it?

San Francisco is expected to face a $728 million budget deficit over the next two fiscal years as the city struggles to recover from the coronavirus pandemic. But Mr McDonnell says it is for the political leaders, not the committee, to find out.

He said, “As victims, we shouldn’t take on the responsibility of helping those who caused the damage find out.” We don’t see that as our primary responsibility.

“There are tax implications, there are incentives for companies to invest in these communities and the reallocation of existing resources. There are many levers to pull and we need to have the political will to do it.”

The committee’s report comes at a time when other states, like New York, are considering making amends as well. California has set up its own reparations committee, but it has not yet made any formal recommendations.

Members said they are considering recommending that black Californians receive $569 billion in housing discrimination compensation between 1933 and 1977, or $223,200 per person.

Mr McDonnell sees San Francisco as a groundbreaking place for other countries grappling with their own legacy of colonialism, including the UK, which has faced its own racial issue following the death of George Floyd.

Ediberto Roman, a law professor at Florida International University College of Law and a longtime proponent of redress, said California could lead to change in Britain.

He said efforts like the one in San Francisco “may lead to a healing that is long overdue.”

However, not everyone is convinced of San Francisco’s plan. John Dennis, leader of the San Francisco Republican Party, said that if just 10,000 people received $5 million each, the cost would be $50 billion.

That would be three and a half times the city’s annual budget of about $14 billion, Mr. Dennis said.

He said: “It seems to me that this is a publicity stunt to divert attention from liberal policies that are harming black residents.”

“The majority of the homeless are black men, which is an example of how the city has failed the black community.

“For $50 billion, we could build mansions for every homeless person in San Francisco. I’m not even exaggerating. There’s about 5,000 per homeless person here, so that’s $10 million per home.

“This idea is an amazing insult to our intelligence.

“We have companies migrating in droves, the commercial real estate market is in free fall, which is affecting the tax base. The city has historically had a massive deficit, housing prices are falling at the fastest rate I’ve seen, and we have problems with robbery and violent crime here.”

As a comparison to the Reparations Committee’s recommendations, the San Francisco board of directors apologized to its 900,000-strong Chinese community last February.

The resolution deplored “systemic and structural discrimination,” including restrictions on Chinese laundries and the use of traditional Chinese tools — but there were no efforts to make reparations to those affected.

The post San Francisco’s $5m slavery reparations fee condemned as ‘publicity stunt’ by critics appeared first on DAILY SAN FRANCISCO BAY NEWS.

Stripe, the Irish-American payments group, has described a “significant slowdown” in growth after years of rapid expansion.

Startups are facing a challenging environment that is “getting tougher,” the founders warned in their annual letter, after venture capital investment fell by two-thirds from early 2021 to late last year. Based in San Francisco and Dublin, Stripe is behind the financial installation that enables millions of companies – like Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Uber – to sell products and services. It was founded in 2011 by Irish brothers Patrick, 34, and John Collison, 32.

“Together, businesses built on Stripe processed more than $817 billion in aggregate volume in 2022, up 26 percent year-on-year,” the Collisons wrote.

“This is a significant slowdown from the breakneck growth we’ve seen in 2020 and 2021.”

Stripe raised $6.5 billion in a funding round last month that was valued at $50 billion, up from $95 billion two years ago.

“While 2019 feels like a different era, it’s entirely plausible that the changes over the next four years will be greater,” the brothers write. “We’re all going to need our wits.”

Startups are trying to make money “sooner and in more diverse ways” under tightened conditions, they added.

“We’re working hard to make this easier and faster across the board.”

The post Fee supplier Stripe predicts a difficult interval forward circumstances tighten appeared first on DAILY SAN FRANCISCO BAY NEWS.

Photo credit: Bloomberg/Contributor/Getty Images

With global digital payments revenue expected to reach $14.79 trillion by 2027, payments infrastructure has arguably never been more critical. But at the same time, the technology is becoming more important, and the associated costs and complexities are increasing. A recent survey shows that merchant satisfaction with their payment processors has plummeted, especially when major technical hurdles are encountered.

In search of solutions to these problems, Klas Bäck, Albert Drouart and Dan Blomberg formed Pagos, a payment intelligence infrastructure startup. Comprised of payment experts with Braintree, PayPal and Stripe backgrounds, Pagos transforms disparate digital payment data into actionable insights without requiring customers to switch payment processors.

CEO Bäck and Drouart have held senior leadership positions at Braintree/Venmo and PayPal for the past eight to nine years; Braintree/Venmo was acquired by PayPal in September 2013. For his part, Blomberg has founded seven startups and sold five over the past two decades.

“Payment processing is fundamental to customer relationships, revenue and a company’s bottom line, but managing it well is becoming increasingly complex,” Back told TechCrunch via email. “Most businesses don’t have the tools, data, or knowledge to design or implement an effective payment strategy; Even those who do often leave significant opportunities open. Pagos was founded on the premise that almost all businesses need help to make their payment execution more data-centric.”

Payment infrastructure providers are not exactly a dime a dozen, but there are a growing number of providers chasing the massive market opportunity. Headquartered in San Francisco, Streamline recently raised $4 million for its business-to-business focused payments product suite. Kushki is a much bigger player — the Ecuadorian payments infrastructure startup landed $100 million last year at a $1.5 billion valuation.

So what does Pagos bring to the table? Bäck claims it uniquely enables businesses to stream and store their payment data — including trade and fraud data — in one place. From a single dashboard, clients can visualize the data and track metrics including transaction, payment authorization and risk performance.

The Pagos financial monitoring dashboard. Photo credit: Paid

Pagos offers connections to payment processors like Adyen, Chase, Braintree, PayPal, Stripe, and WorldPay, as well as data collection APIs to allow businesses to stream payment data and custom metadata into the platform.

“Our promotional products bring together an organization’s data and expose APIs to enable developers and business stakeholders within an organization to refine their payment stack to address issues such as churn, risk and cost – ask Pagos for credential recommendations , where and how to send your transactions for maximum upside,” said Bäck. “Pagos is different because we are not trying to offer new sanitary facilities; We want them to make better use of the collection of vendors and partners they have, which might involve changing processes and systems to resolve issues.”

In terms of customers, Bäck says Pagos, whose platform has processed over a billion transaction events, focuses on companies that sell or bill their customers online and companies that serve them, such as fraud providers, payment orchestration platforms, acquirers and payment service providers , software-as-a-service verticals and marketplaces. Current clients include Adobe, Eventbrite, GoFundMe, Peek, and Warner Bros Discover.

“With Pagos, companies can see what’s going on in a batch of payments,” said Bäck. “Use cases include adding new payment partners and payment methods, identifying optimal payment methods and routes, tracking payments and chargeback metrics, and optimizing recurring bills to reduce churn.

Some investors see the value proposition. Pagos today closed a $34 million Series A round led by Arbor Ventures with participation from Infinity Ventures, Underscore VC and Point 72 Ventures. The company’s total revenue is $44 million, which Bäck says will be used to fund new hires in engineering, product development and “accelerating customer implementation.”

“Actually, we weren’t looking for additional capital. However, we were inundated with incoming investor interest and recognized a unique opportunity to grow our client base even faster, especially in today’s volatile economic climate,” said Bäck. “This opportunistic Series A round was significantly oversubscribed.”

As for the future, Bäck says he’s not overly concerned about the challenging macroeconomic climate for startups. He actually claims that the pandemic triggered a rush into e-commerce that, although it has since declined, has had a lasting impact.

According to Bäck, the pandemic has led to a measurable increase in the use of digital payments. The World Bank’s Global Findex 2021 database found that – in low- and middle-income economies excluding China – over 40% of adults who have made payments by card, phone or internet to merchants in-store or online did so for the first time times have done since the beginning of the pandemic.

“The backend financial infrastructure remains critical. Helping companies sell more and reduce their costs is gaining traction now more than ever,” said Bäck. “Over the last 9-12 months, many companies have put a special focus on reducing their operating costs. This is where Pagos is particularly well positioned to help – most companies can even get started without any integration work, making the return on investment extremely fast.”

Over the next year, Pagos plans to “greatly expand” the remote software, product, sales and account management teams within its 41-strong workforce, says Bäck.

The post Pagos raises $34M because the demand for ‘cost intelligence’ rises appeared first on DAILY SAN FRANCISCO BAY NEWS.

SACRAMENTO (AP) — California’s troubled unemployment benefits division will soon have its third director in the last two years.

The head of the employment promotion department, Rita Saenz, resigned on Friday after a little more than a year in office. She will be replaced by Nancy Farias, who has served as the department’s associate director since 2020. She will earn a salary of $204,613.

CONTINUE READING: California EDD suspends some disability claims citing fraud

Saenz, who ran the California Department of Human Services in the early 2000s and a former executive at Xerox Corp. came out of retirement in 2021 to run the ministry as it was plagued by fraud and arrears. The department was overwhelmed with unemployment benefits early in the pandemic after Gov. Gavin Newsom issued the country’s first statewide stay-at-home order, which forced businesses to close.

Since then, the agency has received 26.4 million applications and paid $180 billion in benefits. But about $20 billion of those payments went to scammers posing as prison inmates and, in one case, to US Senator Dianne Feinstein to trick state officials into sending them checks.

As director, Saenz attempted to implement 21 recommendations from the California auditor. The department has so far implemented five of these recommendations, while the rest are in various stages of implementation. In a memo announcing her retirement, Saenz said she only planned to stay in the department for a short time.

CONTINUE READING: Oakland man sentenced to jail for armed attacks on postal worker in East Oakland

“I am proud of the many reforms and new programs that EDD has introduced over the past year,” Saenz said in a department press release. “Nancy Farias has the energy and direct experience to sustain this positive momentum.”

Newsom praised Saenz for her “steadfast leadership” and credited her with leading “important reforms at the ministry to better serve working Californians, prevent fraud, and hold bad actors accountable.”

The department recently uncovered another fraud scheme, when scammers posed as doctors to trick state officials into issuing them disability cards. The department froze about 345,000 applications related to 27,000 doctors. Earlier this week, the department announced that about 98% of those claims were fraudulent.

However, the department has frozen the benefits of some eligible claimants who have had trouble reinstating their benefits.

MORE NEWS: Daly City Police are asking for the public’s help in identifying the EDD fraud suspect

“The EDD has tried so hard to downplay its recent failure to prevent fraud in its disability programs,” said Assemblyman Jim Patterson, a Fresno Republican who has been a vocal critic of the department. “The governor needs to put someone in charge of the EDD who has the courage to make the necessary changes.”

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(CBS Baltimore) —  The pandemic continues, long after COVID first shut down the economy in early 2020. The Delta variant is still causing positive cases, albeit at a reduced rate, and President Biden has more strongly pushed to encourage vaccines. The broad economy has surpassed where it was before the pandemic. Still, shortages and inflation persist, and some people haven’t caught up. Unemployment exceeds pre-pandemic levels, even with jobs widely available in certain sectors. The federal unemployment bonus ended in early September, but millions of people remain short of food and behind on bills. A fourth stimulus check would help. A few places, including California, have recognized the need for more help and provided additional payments. But will the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) be sending out another stimulus check in 2021?

That hasn’t been decided. But plenty of clues point to where things are heading.

Economic Recovery For Some

READ MORE: UPDATE: Medical Examiner Identifies Shooting Victim Killed in San Francisco’s Haight-Ashbury

Relief payments were intended to ease COVID’s economic impact and support the economy in the process. The third round of relief payments started back in March, courtesy of the American Rescue Plan (ARP). Over the following months, about 169 million people received up to $1,400 each. That accounted for nearly all of the $422 billion set aside. The ARP checks closely followed the $600 payments from January, which came nine months after the $1,200 payments from the pandemic’s early days. They seem to have worked, but have also helped many who didn’t actually need the money.

In the third quarter of 2021, the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.0 percent, according to the most recent estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. (Supply chain issues may have prevented faster growth.) That’s a major slowdown from the torrid pace in the second quarter, which saw 6.7 percent growth. The Conference Board forecasts continued though slower growth through the rest of the year. The country’s gross domestic product (GDP), an estimate of economic activity across the U.S., has surpassed pre-pandemic levels. By that general measure, the economy has fully recovered.

Broad segments of the workforce have endured little economic hardship during the pandemic. Many jobs performed at a desk in an office are just as easily performed at a desk in someone’s home. And with fewer places to spend money during much of the pandemic, plus three stimulus checks, many Americans saved more than they might have otherwise. The personal saving rate ballooned to 33.7 percent in April of 2020 and remained well above pre-pandemic levels until September of 2021. In September, it finally dropped to 7.5 percent, below the 8.3 percent from February of 2020, the month before the pandemic started. On Face the Nation back in June, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan estimated that its customers had not spent 65-70 percent of their last two stimulus checks at that point. The extra savings combined with pent-up demand likely helped drive the broader economy during the rebound.

The housing market has also surged, thanks to low interest rates and people stuck at home realizing the limitations of their living space. The National Association of Realtors recently reported that the national median sales price for an existing home hit $352,800 in September, up 13.3 percent from September of 2020. Much of that rise was helped along by houses priced above the median. Housing inventory decreased over August, and was down 13 percent year over year. And of the homes that sold in September, 86 percent were for sale for less than a month.

The stock market continues to perform well too. Despite some bumpy weeks, the Dow Jones remains far above where it was at this time last year. It has regularly approached record territory. The market closed Friday evening at 36,327 as compared to 28,323 at this time a year ago. Concerns about the Delta variant and slow vaccination rates in parts of the world still linger. Overall COVID case numbers continue to fall, but mask guidelines remain more stringent in some places. The Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) full approval of the Pfizer vaccine, along with the approval of booster shots for those at risk or over 65 yeas old, has been good news for the market. Individual investors who saved their stimulus cash remain invested. Bigger investors continue to bet on a strong economic recovery in the months ahead.

While certain experts foresee some of the strongest economic growth in decades, many are also concerned about higher inflation. Recent projections indicate that prices will rise about 5.3 percent in 2021. That’s compared to the 2.3 percent rate in 2019 and 1.7 percent rate in 2020. The latest data shows prices rising 5.4 percent over the last 12 months. Should that rate persist for the rest of the year, it would be the highest in three decades. Prices moved up 0.4 percent in September, matching early-summer highs. Core consumer prices — excluding food and energy, which tend to be volatile — rose 0.2 percent. Rising prices continue for many products that require semiconductors, including new cars, computers, and TVs.

Price hikes and product shortages stem, in part, from the economy opening up all at once. Prices depressed by the pandemic have had to normalize. But companies couldn’t keep pace with a year’s worth of pent-up consumer demand. They also have had to revive and retool their supply chains in the midst of drastic changes in consumer demand patterns. And this has all happened as shipping issues and other constraints continue to slow production and delivery.

COVID has altered how and what people consume. The way these changes continue to play out isn’t necessarily predictable. However, companies have had to guess where demand for their product will be when all the dust settles. Predicting the future is hard enough in a normal economy. It became much harder in an economy trying to move past a pandemic then forced to deal with a resurgence. Price changes and shortages across a whole range of products will likely continue to plague consumers well into 2022. But economists think they should improve with time.

Consumer spending remains strong, with the rate up 0.7 percent in September, as compared to a 0.9 percent rise in August. Demand for clothing and sporting goods continues to rise. Spending on food and household supplies stayed high. New car purchases continue to be a drag, with semiconductor shortages still creating production and supply issues. Overall, goods spending remains above pre-pandemic levels.

No Economic Recovery For Others

The pandemic has further highlighted the growing imbalance across the broader economy. While many households have financially flourished during COVID, many others have fallen behind where they were in early 2020. Much of the gap depends on whether wage earners could work remotely during the shutdown or had public-facing jobs that required them to be on-site.

Financial insecurity is still widespread, and the loss of a job and the loss of hours were some of the main reasons over the course of the pandemic. Nine percent of American adults (approximately 20 million people) reported a shortage of food in their household over the previous week, according to a Center on Budget and Policy Priorities analysis of U.S. Census survey data from late September and early October. Approximately 16 percent of renters (12 million people) have fallen behind on their rent, including 23 percent of renters with children in their household. The federal eviction moratorium, which ended October 3, didn’t forgive rent that was owed, it pushed the debt into the future. And evictions continued in some parts of the country regardless. Meanwhile, only a fraction of the $46 billion Congress allocated for rental assistance has actually made it to tenants and landlords. As of late September, over a quarter of American adults (63 million people) reported some difficulty keeping up with expenses in the prior week.

Employment also remains below pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate fell to 4.6 percent in October, with some workers finding jobs or leaving the workforce. Job growth exceeded expectations for the first time in a few months. Forecasters expected roughly 450,000 new jobs in October, but employers only added about 530,000. (September saw about 194,000 new jobs, well below expectations.) Many fear the rise of the Delta variant is hindering growth. Low-wage jobs made up the bulk of those lost during the pandemic, and while plenty of openings have returned, many remain unfilled. Approximately 269,000 people initially applied for unemployment insurance in the week ending October 30. (A typical pre-pandemic week saw about 250,000 new unemployment applications.) As of the week ending October 16, almost 2.7 million workers were receiving some form of unemployment aid. (The approximately 4.9 million people previously collecting PUA lost benefits on September 6, when the program ended.) Many jobless Americans never received unemployment insurance and other government benefits, because of long waits, perceived ineligibility and other issues.

Job growth still faces some headwinds, aside from the Delta variant. Some have argued that overly generous benefits made unemployment more attractive than working. But other considerations factor into one’s ability to work too. Remote schooling created childcare issues for many parents that summer break didn’t change. The resumption of in-person learning, if it lasts, could free up some parents to return to work. The full vaccination rate is 58.1 percent for the country. But state percentages range from 71.4 percent in Vermont to 41.1 percent in West Virginia. Many counties across the country have vaccination rates lower than that.

The threat of COVID, particularly the now-dominant Delta variant, is still real in places. Many people are uncomfortable working in public around strangers. A gap between labor force skills and job requirements can make hiring more difficult, not to mention the rising standards of what workers will accept in a job. Many people are holding out for something better, rather than accepting whatever comes along. And then there’s the general friction that inevitably arises when an entire economy slams its foot on the gas.

As before the pandemic, many who are willing to work cannot find jobs with the wages and benefits they need to survive. According to Marie Newman, a U.S. Representative from Illinois, “there is not a shortage of Americans looking for work, there is a shortage of Americans willing to work for starvation wages with no benefits, no health care, and no protections during a pandemic.”

About half of all states tried to force the issue and push people back into the job market. These states, most led by Republicans, discontinued the $300 federal unemployment benefit bonus for their citizens ahead of the official Labor Day end date, or at least attempted to. Analysis from a payroll services company called Gusto showed that cutting off federal benefits didn’t lead to more hiring.

The federal unemployment bonus and the previous round of stimulus checks helped Americans still awaiting their recovery to pay bills and put food on the table. The advance Child Tax Credit provides some additional support to families. But this money only goes so far. And some politicians feel that the payments haven’t been enough.

Support For A Fourth Stimulus Check

A group of Democratic Senators, including Ron Wyden of Oregon, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, sent a letter to President Joe Biden at the end of March requesting “recurring direct payments and automatic unemployment insurance extensions tied to economic conditions.”

As the Senators reasoned in their letter, “this crisis is far from over, and families deserve certainty that they can put food on the table and keep a roof over their heads. Families should not be at the mercy of constantly-shifting legislative timelines and ad hoc solutions.”

An earlier letter to President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris from 53 Representatives, led by Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, carved out a similar position. “Recurring direct payments until the economy recovers will help ensure that people can meet their basic needs, provide racially equitable solutions, and shorten the length of the recession.”

Additional co-signers included New York’s Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Michigan’s Rashida Tlaib, two other notable names among House Progressives. The letter didn’t place a number on the requested stimulus payments. But a tweet soon after put it at $2,000 per month for the length of the pandemic.

$2,000 monthly payments until the pandemic is over. https://t.co/6tuia6prFJ

— Ilhan Omar (@IlhanMN) January 28, 2021

A May 17 letter from members of the House Ways and Means Committee renewed the push for additional stimulus. “The ARP’s $1,400 checks alone will keep 11 million people out of poverty this year, with UI (unemployment insurance) expansion and other provisions in the bill accounting for the another five million. A fourth and fifth check could keep an additional 12 million out of poverty. Combined with the effects of the ARP, direct payments could reduce the number in poverty in 2021 from 44 million to 16 million.”

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There’s also been talk about automatic payments that could be sent when specific economic metrics reach certain thresholds (for example, if unemployment rises to 6 percent). These triggers would make stimulus checks a reactive force in countering economic dips, sparing struggling Americans from Congressional delays.

A majority of Americans also favor recurring relief payments. According to a January poll from Data For Progress, nearly two-thirds of all voters support $2,000 monthly payments to all Americans for the length of the pandemic. Supporters include a majority of Independents and Republicans. A struggling restaurant owner’s online petition calling for $2,000 monthly payments for every American adult has surpassed 2.9 million signatures.

The Urban Institute estimated that another stimulus payment could reduce poverty by at least 6.4 percent in 2021. Many economists are also onboard. A 2020 open letter from experts in the field argued “direct cash payments are an essential tool that will boost economic security, drive consumer spending, hasten the recovery, and promote certainty at all levels of government and the economy – for as long as necessary.”

California Governor Gavin Newsom signed a budget into law in July, which includes a stimulus check for about two-thirds of the state’s residents. The $100 billion California Comeback Plan, as part of their $262.2 billion budget, is paying $600 to residents earning between $30,000 and $75,000 per year. Residents in that income range who have kids are receiving $1,100. Those checks started going out the last Friday in August The state’s previous stimulus went to those with an annual income under $30,000.

Other states have also authorized payments. Maryland handed out $300 or $500 checks to those who claimed the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) on their tax returns. Florida gave $1,000 bonuses to teachers, which started showing up in August. Denton and Irving school districts in north Texas were scheduled to give retention bonuses of $500 and $2,000 respectively at the start of the school year.

The Biden administration also planned to give a one-time $600 payment to farm workers and meatpacking workers. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack announced the plan in early September. The U.S. Department of Agriculture allocated up to $700 million for the limited-scope stimulus check. The aid will be handed out through state agencies and include a pilot program giving extra money to grocery store workers.

The Biden administration, which authored the third round of stimulus checks, isn’t against a fourth round. But the president recognizes their high price tag. He also has other priorities, specifically infrastructure, global warming, and help for families. Neither the American Jobs Plan nor the American Families Plan, the administration’s original infrastructure and human infrastructure proposals, included another relief payment. Updated plans currently bouncing around Congress don’t either.

A Fourth Stimulus Check Is Unlikely

All of the tacit and explicit support for stimulus checks keeps the possibility alive. The support doesn’t make a fourth payment likely, however. And there are many reasons why.

Vaccinations are progressing steadily, albeit not as quickly as in the spring. Adults and those at least 12 years old were already eligible to be inoculated in all 50 states. Emergency approval of the Pfizer vaccine for children ages 5-11 happened earlier this week. Three different options are available to the public, depending on one’s age, with the Pfizer vaccine fully approved by the FDA. Booster shots of the Pfizer vaccine have also been approved and rolled out for those at risk or over 65. Actually putting needles in arms is taking time, even with supply readily available. Americans have received over 425 million doses, with 66.9 percent of the population having received at least one dose and 58.1 percent completely vaccinated. Vaccination numbers continue to increase at a rate of about 1.3 million doses per day, with booster shots accounting for some of the recent increase.

With vaccinations rising, the nation’s economy continues to recover. Looser restrictions have helped businesses, and jobs are available in many sectors. Many industries are even complaining of worker shortages, which are leading to wage increases. The number of new unemployment claims remains lower than it has been for much of the pandemic. In October, consumer confidence bounced back little despite ongoing concerns over the Delta variant and rising prices. Consumer sentiment also staged a bit of a comeback, even with the Delta variant, supply chain questions, and ongoing labor force issues. Confidence, remains higher than it’s been for much of the pandemic.

Consumer spending drives two-thirds of the country’s economy. And excess pandemic savings, along with three stimulus checks, has boosted people’s spending power. That spending power has increased even more since monthly Child Tax Credit payments started on July 15. The most recent payment went out October 15. An improved financial position generally also raises optimism for the future. The ongoing vaccinations, which have allowed the economy to reopen to some degree, certainly help. All that additional spending, along with the release of pent-up demand, has led to the availability of more jobs as companies try to hire to address consumer needs. With the economy growing, a fourth round of stimulus checks seems less urgent.

Aside from the generally improving economy, the political machinations of Washington make a fourth stimulus check a longshot. The American Rescue Plan, which included the third stimulus check, passed along party lines. Republicans were not interested in spending anywhere close to $1.9 trillion, though some did support the third relief payment. They termed the package a “blue state bailout,” claiming it went well beyond the scope of COVID and would increase the deficit, leading to inflation.

The Democrats used a process called reconciliation to pass the bill in the Senate without Republican support. That allows budget-related matters to proceed with a simple majority rather than the filibuster-proof 60 votes. Generally only one reconciliation bill can pass per fiscal year. But a subsequent ruling by the Senate parliamentarian, who interprets the legislative body’s rules, opened up a path for additional spending legislation. Without reconciliation, any bill would need at least 10 Republican votes, along with every Democratic vote.

But the Biden administration has other priorities. One of its biggest is addressing infrastructure. The proposed American Jobs Plan, which aimed to rebuild roads, repair bridges, do away with lead pipes, extend broadband, modernize the country’s electric grid and much more, carried a price tag of $2.3 trillion. Biden and a group of Senators from both parties agreed upon a scaled-back infrastructure plan costing about $1 trillion. The resulting bipartisan bill, now called the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, passed the Senate in early August. Neither the original version nor the bipartisan bill that moved forward includes a fourth stimulus check. One could, in theory, be added when the House takes up the bill. That seems unlikely given the price tag.

The American Families Plan, focused on childcare, education and more, would have cost another $1.8 trillion in its initial form. The Democrats were then pushing forward a $3.5 trillion budget blueprint that focused on their various “human infrastructure” initiatives, such as Medicare expansion, child care, and climate change. A $1.75 trillion version of that second plan is now nearing a vote. A fourth stimulus check is not included, though one could theoretically still be added as well. The Democrats’ latest plan is a more likely home for a fourth stimulus check than a traditional infrastructure plan. Funding these plans will almost certainly involve tax increases on corporations and wealthy individuals, which Republicans would oppose.

More negotiating seems inevitable before any bill gets passed into law. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has promised not to take up the infrastructure bill until the Senate also passes a human infrastructure bill. Democrats have laid the groundwork to use reconciliation again to push through this legislation.

Joe Manchin of West Virginia, among the most centrist Democratic Senators, has warned against overusing reconciliation. He is also apparently unwilling to do away with the filibuster, which would lower the number of votes needed to pass legislation to 51. Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema doesn’t want to abandon the filibuster either. Manchin also wants to see the human infrastructure bill shrink. With bipartisanship still hard to come by, the Biden administration is in a tough spot. They’re unlikely to add a fourth stimulus check to any plan, driving up the price tag by hundreds of billions of dollars. They’re also unlikely to use reconciliation to pass another stimulus check on its own.

What Other Aid Is Out There?

While a fourth stimulus check is improbable, more direct payments to Americans have already been signed into law. Up until Labor Day, the jobless received extended unemployment benefits. The American Rescue Plan also includes an advance Child Tax Credit.

Under the revised Child Tax Credit, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is paying out $3,600 per year for each child up to five years old and $3,000 per year for each child ages six through 17. Monthly payments of up to $300 per child started July 15 and will continue through December of 2021. The remainder is to be issued when the recipient files their 2021 taxes. The benefit does not depend on the recipient’s current tax burden. In other words, qualifying families will receive the full amount, regardless of how much — or little — they owe in taxes. Payments start to phase out beyond a $75,000 annual income for individuals and beyond $150,000 for married couples. The more generous credit will apply only for 2021, though Biden has stated his interest in extending it through 2025.

The ARP added $21.6 billion to the Emergency Rental Assistance Program, which is being distributed to state and local governments, who then assist households. Most of the $46 billion total has yet to reach tenants and landlords.

The infrastructure and human infrastructure plans also have the potential to create many jobs across a wide swath of the economy. How the proposed initiatives are ultimately distributed across the bipartisan bill or the broader Democratic plan remains to be seen. The American Families Plan boosted the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit and placed a ceiling on the cost of childcare for many families. The plan set aside $200 billion for universal preschool. In addition to helping working parents pay for childcare, the plan sought to allow more parents to return to the workforce. Look for similar programs and more when the specifics of the human infrastructure plan are worked out.

Additional money in people’s pockets from any bill or proposed plan is still hypothetical, of course. Nothing has found its way through Congress yet. And when (or if) it does, months could pass before the aid reaches those it would benefit.

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Originally published on Monday, April 5 @ 4:45 p.m. ET.

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(CBS Detroit) — Many Americans have relied on stimulus checks to get through COVID. Nearly 17 months after the economy initially shut down, the pandemic is still going. The Delta variant is driving up case numbers among the unvaccinated. The rise, which comes amidst improving economic conditions, could tap the brakes on the recovery. Meanwhile, some people are still waiting on that recovery. Unemployment exceeds pre-pandemic levels, even with jobs widely available in certain sectors. The federal unemployment bonus is set to end on Labor Day, and about half of all states have already ended it (or attempted to). Millions of people remain short of food and behind on bills. A fourth stimulus check would certainly come in handy. But can we expect more help from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) in 2021?

That question has not been definitively answered. But plenty of clues signal which direction things are heading.

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Economic Recovery For Some

Relief payments were intended to ease COVID’s economic impact and support the economy in the process. The third round of relief payments started back in March, courtesy of the American Rescue Plan (ARP). Since then, about 169 million people have received up to $1,400 each, including another 2.3 million last month. That accounts for most of the $422 billion set aside. The ARP checks closely followed the $600 payments from January, which came nine months after the $1,200 payments from the pandemic’s early days. They seem to have worked, but have also helped many who didn’t actually need the money.

In the second quarter of 2021, the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 6.5 percent, according to the advance estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. (Supply shortages may have prevented even faster growth.) That continues the torrid pace from the first quarter, which saw 6.4 percent growth. The Conference Board forecasts continued growth through the rest of the year. The country’s gross domestic product (GDP), an estimate of economic activity across the U.S., has already surpassed pre-pandemic levels. By that general measure, the economy has already recovered.

Broad segments of the workforce have endured little economic hardship during the pandemic. Many jobs performed at a desk in an office are just as easily performed at a desk in someone’s home. And with fewer places to spend money during the pandemic, plus three stimulus checks, many Americans saved more than they might have otherwise. The personal saving rate ballooned to 33.7 percent in April of 2020 and has remained well above pre-pandemic levels ever since. In June of 2021, it sat at 9.4 percent, still above the 8.3 percent from February of 2020, the month before the pandemic started. On Face the Nation back in June, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan estimated that its customers had not spent 65-70 percent of their last two stimulus checks. That extra savings combined with pent-up demand has likely helped drive the broader economy during the rebound.

The housing market has also surged, thanks to low interest rates and people stuck at home realizing the limitations of their living space. The National Association of Realtors recently reported that the national median sales price for an existing home hit $370,600 in June, up 24.4 percent from June of 2020. That number rose or stayed the same all over the country. Much of that rise was helped along by houses priced above the median. Housing inventory increased over May, but was still down 18.8 percent year over year. And of the homes that sold in June, 89 percent were for sale for less than a month.

The stock market continues to perform well too. The Dow Jones remains far above where it was at this time last year. It regularly sets new record highs, or at least approaches them. It opened Monday morning at 35,229. Concerns about the Delta variant and lagging vaccination rates in parts of the world still linger. Slowing vaccination rates in the U.S. have also become a concern, as case numbers rise and mask mandates come back into effect in many parts of the country. Still, individual investors, flush with extra stimulus cash, remain in the market. Bigger investors continue to bet on a strong economic recovery in the months ahead.

While certain experts foresee some of the strongest economic growth in decades, many are also worried about higher inflation. Recent projections indicate that prices will rise about 5.5 percent in 2021, though the Fed believes inflation will be more like 3.0 percent. That’s compared to the 2.3 percent rate in 2019 and 1.7 percent rate in 2020. The latest data shows prices rising 5.4 percent over the last 12 months, the highest 12-month rate in over a decade. Prices moved up 0.9 percent in June. Rising used car prices account for about one-third of the rise, with inventory shortages largely to blame. Lumber prices also have played a part. Some of the rise is also likely due to depressed prices returning as the economy moves on from the pandemic.

Price hikes and product shortages also stem from the economy opening up all at once. Companies can’t keep pace with a year’s worth of pent-up consumer demand. They also have to revive and retool their supply chains in the midst of drastic changes in consumer demand patterns. And this is all happening as shipping issues and other slowdowns continue to slow production and delivery.

COVID has altered how and what people consume. The way these changes play out in a post-COVID world isn’t necessarily predictable. Companies, however, have had to guess where demand for their product will be when all the dust settles. Predicting the future is hard enough in a normal economy. It becomes much harder in an economy emerging from a pandemic. These price changes and shortages across a whole range of products will likely continue to plague consumers in the short-term. But economists predict they should improve with time. And some evidence, like the falling price of lumber, is already bearing that out.

No Economic Recovery For Others

The pandemic has better highlighted the growing imbalance across the broader economy. While many households have financially flourished during COVID, many others have fallen far behind where they were in early 2020. Much of the gap depends on whether wage earners could work remotely or had public-facing jobs that required them to be on-site.

Financial insecurity is still widespread, and the loss of a job and the loss of hours have been some of the main reasons. Ten percent of American adults (approximately 20 million people) reported a shortage of food in their household over the previous week, according to a Center on Budget and Policy Priorities analysis of U.S. Census survey data from late June and early July. Approximately 16 percent of renters (11.4 million people) have fallen behind on their rent, including 21 percent of renters with children in their household. The federal eviction moratorium, which has been extended until October 3, doesn’t forgive rent that was owed, it pushed the debt into the future. Meanwhile, only a small fraction of the $46 billion Congress allocated for rental assistance has actually made it to tenants and landlords.

As of late June/early July, over a quarter of American adults (63 million people) reported some difficulty keeping up with expenses in the prior week. An April survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York determined that over 58 percent of those receiving a third stimulus check have or will use the money on consumption or paying down debt. That includes debt incurred during the pandemic. A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll from last February listed food and housing costs as the second and third most popular uses of the then-upcoming stimulus.

Employment also remains below pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate fell to 5.4 percent in July, but many fear the rise of the Delta variant will hinder that growth. (July numbers precede the latest spike.) Many of the low-wage jobs lost during the pandemic have not returned. Approximately 385,000 people initially applied for unemployment insurance for the week ending July 31. (A typical pre-pandemic week saw about 250,000 new unemployment applications.) Another 95,000 people sought Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA), which supports freelance and self-employed workers. The approximately 4..6 million people collecting PUA will lose benefits on September 6, when the program ends. As of the week ending July 17, about 13 million workers were receiving some form of unemployment aid. Many jobless Americans have not received unemployment insurance and other government benefits, because of long waits, perceived ineligibility and other issues.

Job growth still faces some headwinds, aside from the Delta variant. Some have argued that overly generous benefits made unemployment more attractive than working. But other considerations factor into one’s ability to work too. Remote schooling created childcare issues for many parents. Summer break doesn’t necessarily change anything. The full vaccination rate is 50.1 percent for the country. But state percentages range from 67.9 percent in Vermont to 34.8 percent in Alabama. Many counties across the country have vaccination rates lower than that.

So the threat of COVID, particularly the now-dominant Delta variant, is still real in places. Many people remain uncomfortable working in public around strangers. A gap between labor force skills and job requirements can make hiring more difficult, not to mention the rising standards of what workers will accept. And then there’s the general friction that inevitably arises when an entire economy slams its foot on the gas.

As before the pandemic, many who are willing to work cannot find jobs with the wages and benefits they need to survive. According to Marie Newman, a U.S. Representative from Illinois, “there is not a shortage of Americans looking for work, there is a shortage of Americans willing to work for starvation wages with no benefits, no health care, and no protections during a pandemic.”

About half of all states are trying to force the issue and push people back into the job market. These states, most led by Republicans, have discontinued the $300 federal unemployment benefit bonus for their citizens ahead of the official Labor Day end date. Alabama, Idaho, and Nebraska are among the states that stopped benefits on June 19. Arkansas, Florida, Ohio, and Texas followed on June 26. Maryland and Tennessee wrapped up benefits on July 3, and Arizona on July 10. But many workers have sued their states. Arkansas, Indiana and Maryland have since temporarily reinstated benefits. A recent analysis from a payroll services company called Gusto showed that cutting off federal benefits may not be leading to more hiring.

The federal unemployment bonus and the previous round of stimulus checks have helped Americans still awaiting their recovery to pay bills and put food on the table. The advance Child Tax Credit provides some additional support to families. But this money often runs out before some people can take another job. And some politicians feel that the payments haven’t been enough.

Support For A Fourth Stimulus Check

A group of Democratic Senators, including Ron Wyden of Oregon, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, sent a letter to President Joe Biden at the end of March requesting “recurring direct payments and automatic unemployment insurance extensions tied to economic conditions.”

As the Senators reasoned in their letter, “this crisis is far from over, and families deserve certainty that they can put food on the table and keep a roof over their heads. Families should not be at the mercy of constantly-shifting legislative timelines and ad hoc solutions.”

An earlier letter to President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris from 53 Representatives, led by Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, carved out a similar position. “Recurring direct payments until the economy recovers will help ensure that people can meet their basic needs, provide racially equitable solutions, and shorten the length of the recession.”

Additional co-signers included New York’s Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Michigan’s Rashida Tlaib, two other notable names among House Progressives. The letter didn’t place a number on the requested stimulus payments. But a tweet soon after put it at $2,000 per month for the length of the pandemic.

$2,000 monthly payments until the pandemic is over. https://t.co/6tuia6prFJ

— Ilhan Omar (@IlhanMN) January 28, 2021

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A May 17 letter from members of the House Ways and Means Committee renewed the push for additional stimulus. “The ARP’s $1,400 checks alone will keep 11 million people out of poverty this year, with UI (unemployment insurance) expansion and other provisions in the bill accounting for the another five million. A fourth and fifth check could keep an additional 12 million out of poverty. Combined with the effects of the ARP, direct payments could reduce the number in poverty in 2021 from 44 million to 16 million.”

There’s also talk about automatic payments that would go out when specific economic metrics reach certain thresholds (for example, if unemployment rises to 6 percent). These triggers would make stimulus checks a reactive force in countering what’s happening in the economy, sparing struggling Americans from Congressional delays.

A majority of Americans also favor recurring relief payments. According to a January poll from Data For Progress, nearly two-thirds of all voters support $2,000 monthly payments to all Americans for the length of the pandemic. Supporters include a majority of Independents and Republicans. A struggling restaurant owner’s online petition calling for $2,000 monthly payments for every American adult is approaching 2.8 million signatures.

The Urban Institute estimated that another stimulus payment could reduce poverty by at least 6.4 percent in 2021. Many economists are also onboard. A 2020 open letter from experts in the field argued “direct cash payments are an essential tool that will boost economic security, drive consumer spending, hasten the recovery, and promote certainty at all levels of government and the economy – for as long as necessary.”

California Governor Gavin Newsom recently signed a new budget into law, which includes a stimulus check for about two-thirds of the state’s residents. The $100 billion California Comeback Plan, as part of their $262.2 billion budget, will pay $600 to residents earning between $30,000 and $75,000 per year. Residents in that income range who have kids will receive $1,100. The state’s previous stimulus went to those with an annual income under $30,000.

The Biden administration, which authored the third round of stimulus checks, isn’t against a fourth round. But the president recognizes their high price tag. He also seems to have other priorities, specifically infrastructure and help for families. Neither the the American Jobs Plan or the American Families Plan included another relief payment as proposed. Other plans currently bouncing around Congress don’t either.

“He’s happy to hear from a range of ideas on what would be most effective and what’s most important to the economy moving forward,” said White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki. “But he’s also proposed what he thinks is going to be the most effective for the short term for putting people back to work, to getting through this pivotal period of time, and also to making us more competitive in the long term.”

A Fourth Stimulus Check Is Unlikely

All of this tacit and explicit support keeps alive the possibility of another stimulus check. The support doesn’t make a fourth payment likely, however. And there are many reasons why.

Vaccinations are progressing steadily, albeit not as quickly as in the spring. Adults and those at least 12 years old are eligible to be inoculated in all 50 states. (Trials for children under 12 continue.) Three different options are available to the public. But actually putting needles in arms is taking time, even with supply readily available. Americans have received over 351 million doses, with 58.7 percent of the population having received at least one dose and 50.1 percent completely vaccinated. Vaccination numbers continue to increase at a rate of over half a million doses per day. That rate has ticked up in the last week or so. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) had advised that the fully vaccinated could forgo masks and social distancing in most indoor and outdoor settings. But their revised guidance recommends that vaccinated people in areas with higher COVID transmission revert to wearing masks indoors again.

With vaccinations rising, the nation’s economy continues to recover. Looser restrictions have helped businesses, and jobs are available in many sectors. Many industries are even complaining of worker shortages, which are leading to wage increases. The number of new unemployment claims remains lower than it has been for much of the pandemic. Consumer confidence has plateaued at its highest point since early last year. Inflation concerns and rising COVID case numbers could dampen optimism about business conditions and the job market.

Consumer spending drives two-thirds of the country’s economy. And excess pandemic savings, along with three stimulus checks, has boosted people’s spending power. That spending power has increased even more since monthly Child Tax Credit payments started arriving on July 15. An improved financial position generally also raises optimism for the future. The ongoing vaccinations, which have allowed the economy to safely reopen, certainly help. All that additional spending, along with the release of pent-up demand, has led to more jobs as companies hire to address consumer needs. With the economy surging, a fourth round of stimulus checks seems less urgent.

Aside from the generally improving economy, the political machinations of Washington make a fourth stimulus check a longshot. The American Rescue Plan, which included the third stimulus check, passed along party lines. Republicans were not interested in spending anywhere close to $1.9 trillion, though some did support the third relief payment. They termed the package a “blue state bailout,” claiming it went well beyond the scope of COVID and would increase the deficit, leading to inflation.

The Democrats used a process called reconciliation to pass the bill in the Senate without Republican support. That allows budget-related matters to proceed with a simple majority rather than the filibuster-proof 60 votes. Generally only one reconciliation bill can pass per fiscal year. But a subsequent ruling by the Senate parliamentarian, who interprets the legislative body’s rules, opened up a path for additional spending legislation. Without reconciliation, any bill would need at least 10 Republican votes, along with every Democratic vote.

But the Biden administration has other priorities. One of its biggest is addressing infrastructure. The proposed American Jobs Plan, which aimed to rebuild roads, repair bridges, do away with lead pipes, extend broadband, modernize the country’s electric grid and much more, carried a price tag of $2.3 trillion. Biden and a group of Senators from both parties agreed upon a scaled-back infrastructure plan costing around $1 trillion. The resulting bipartisan bill, now called the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, is nearing a final vote in the Senate. Neither the original version nor the bipartisan version includes a fourth stimulus check. One could, in theory, be added. That seems unlikely given the price tag.

The American Families Plan, focused on childcare, education and more, would have cost another $1.8 trillion in its initial form. The Democrats are now pushing forward a $3.5 trillion budget blueprint that focuses on their various “human infrastructure” initiatives. A fourth stimulus check is not included, though one could theoretically still be added as well. The Democrats’ extended plan is a more likely home for a fourth stimulus check than a traditional infrastructure plan. Funding these plans may also involve tax increases, which Republicans would oppose.

Plenty more negotiating seems inevitable before any bill comes to a final vote. And securing 10 Republican supporters in the Senate for whatever legislation results is far from certain. Democrats may very well be anticipating the need to use reconciliation again to push through legislation.

Joe Manchin of West Virginia, among the most centrist Democratic Senators, has warned against overusing reconciliation. He is also apparently unwilling to do away with the filibuster, which would lower the number of votes needed to pass legislation to 51. Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema doesn’t want to abandon the filibuster either. With bipartisanship still hard to come by (the tentative infrastructure deal notwithstanding), the Biden administration is in a tough spot. They’re unlikely to add a fourth stimulus check to any plan, driving up the price tag by hundreds of billions of dollars. They’re also unlikely to use reconciliation to pass another stimulus check on its own.

What Other Aid Is Out There?

While a fourth stimulus check is improbable, more direct payments to Americans have already been signed into law. The American Rescue Plan includes an improved Child Tax Credit and extended unemployment benefits.

Under the revised Child Tax Credit, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is paying out $3,600 per year for each child up to five years old and $3,000 per year for each child ages six through 17. Monthly payments of up to $300 per child started July 15 and will continue through December of 2021. The remainder is to be issued when the recipient files their 2021 taxes. The benefit does not depend on the recipient’s current tax burden. In other words, qualifying families will receive the full amount, regardless of how much — or little — they owe in taxes. Payments start to phase out beyond a $75,000 annual income for individuals and beyond $150,000 for married couples. The more generous credit will apply only for 2021, though Biden has stated his interest in extending it through 2025.

The American Rescue Plan also extended the weekly federal unemployment insurance bonus of $300 through Labor Day. (As mentioned before, half of all states have ended the additional unemployment or will be ending it soon.) Those eligible for Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC), which covers people who have used up their state benefits, and PUA have also seen their benefits extended through early September. PEUC runs out after 53 weeks. PUA expires after 79 weeks. The ARP also added $21.6 billion to the Emergency Rental Assistance Program, which is being distributed to state and local governments, who then assist households. Most of the $46 billion total has yet to reach tenants and landlords.

The infrastructure plan also has the potential to create many jobs across a wide swath of the economy. How the proposed initiatives are ultimately distributed across the scaled-back bipartisan outline or the broader Democratic plan remains to be seen. The American Families Plan includes 12 weeks of paid family leave that could reach as high as $4,000 per month, depending on a worker’s income. It also boosts the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit and places a ceiling on the cost of childcare for many families. The plan sets aside $200 billion for universal preschool. In addition to helping working parents pay for childcare, the plan looks to allow more parents to return to the workforce.

Additional money in people’s pockets from any proposed plan is still hypothetical, of course. Nothing has found its way through Congress yet.

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Originally published Tuesday, August 3, 2021 at 12:41 p.m. ET.

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SAN FRANCISCO (AP) – Digital payments company Square Inc. says it has agreed to acquire Afterpay, which gives merchants a “buy now, pay later” option in an all-stock deal valued at approximately $ 29 billion offers.

Square said Sunday it had agreed to buy all of the shares in the Australian company and that the estimated value of the transaction was based on the closing price of Square’s common shares last Friday.

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Square enables retailers to process credit card transactions with devices that plug into tablets or smartphones. The San Francisco-based company said the acquisition is expected to close in early 2022.

The company plans to integrate Afterpay into its services so that merchants can offer their customers the option of paying for goods later without a credit card. Afterpay users could manage their installment payments right in Square’s Cash app.

“Square and Afterpay have a common purpose,” Square CEO Jack Dorsey said in a statement.

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About 70 million people use Square’s Cash app. As of June 30, Afterpay served more than 16 million users and nearly 100,000 merchants, including large retailers, the company said.

Installment payments are popular with retailers as they encourage customers to spend more money. And they allow customers who do not have sufficient credit or credit at the time of purchase to leave a store with the item they want. Payments are made in multiple installments without interest over time – unless customers are late, in which case additional fees or interest may apply.

“Afterpay is deeply committed to helping people spend money responsibly without incurring service fees for those who pay on time,” said a joint press release announcing the deal.

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