A commission in charge of holding San Francisco accountable for its response to the drug and mental health crises hasn’t been able to hold a proper meeting for more than seven months as the city’s elected leaders neglect to fill its seats. 

There are currently only six active members on the 17-person Behavioral Health Commission, an oversight body with the power to draft policy and conduct reviews of programs run by the city’s Behavioral Health Department. The department has a $592 million annual budget and is responsible for providing mental health and drug treatment services. 

Because there are fewer than nine active members, the commission lacks a quorum and hasn’t been able to wield much of its power or hold meetings since February.

The term of the commission’s co-chair, Balham Vigil, expired 10 months ago, but Vigil continues to serve; the city has failed to appoint a replacement. The commission is required by state law, and 16 of its 17 members are appointed by the Board of Supervisors. 

A 17th seat is reserved for a member of the Board of Supervisors. But that seat has sat empty since January 2022. Supervisor Ahsha Safaí, who championed the creation of the Homelessness Oversight Commission, was the last Board of Supervisors member to fill the seat before Behavioral Health Commission members said he abruptly stopped attending. Safaí didn’t respond to a request for comment.

District 11 Supervisor Ahsha Safai during the San Francisco Board of Supervisors Meeting at City Hall in San Francisco on July 11. | Source: Isaac Ceja/The Standard

“The supervisors are just not appointing people,” said former commission member Geoffrey Grier. “You’ve got a lot of folks who want to be on the commission but they’ve got to wait a year? Nine months?”

Victor Young, a clerk for the Board of Supervisors, told The Standard there are eight people who have pending applications to serve on the commission. However, he said it’s difficult to find qualified members for the commission due to the types of experience needed for each seat. 

Each of the 11 supervisors gets one appointee to the commission. The six other seats are appointed by the full Board of Supervisors, including the one seat designated for a member of the Board of Supervisors.

On top of that, there are other complicated rules. At least nine of the 17 commissioners are supposed to be mental health patients or family members of mental health patients. Two commissioners are supposed to be mental health “advocates,” two seats are designated for mental health professionals, and one seat is to be held by a person “serving the public interest.” 

The commission currently has three seats occupied by mental health patients or their family members, two mental health professionals and one advocate.

The Behavioral Health Department is part of the Department of Public Health, the largest department in the city with a $3 billion budget. The Department of Public Health has at least four commissions overseeing its work. 

Supervisor Matt Dorsey, who is chair of the rules committee, which evaluates commission applicants, said he’s working on legislation that would shrink the commission from 17 members to 11. He told The Standard the commission’s stringent eligibility requirements have imposed barriers for him and other supervisors to appoint commissioners. 

Supervisor Matt Dorsey speaks at a press conference in San Francisco on June 29. | Jeremy Chen/The Standard

Do Oversight Bodies Work? Some Supervisors Are Skeptical 

In July, The Standard reported only one person working in City Hall was able to figure out how many departments, boards, commissions and advisory bodies the city has. A representative from the City Attorney’s Office eventually counted 53 departments, 56 boards and commissions, and 74 more advisory bodies, bringing the grand total to 183 different entities. 

The revelation frustrated many who said the city is plagued by too many overlapping bureaucracies. 

Supervisor Rafael Mandelman, who is one of five supervisors with active appointees on the Behavioral Health Commission, said the city should fill the vacant seats but was skeptical whether it would move the needle on solving city issues.

“If oversight bodies led to good government, we would have the best government in the world,” Mandelman said. 

Supervisor Rafael Mandelman listens to public comment at a board meeting at the Supervisor’s Chamber at City Hall in San Francisco in May. | Justin Katigbak for The Standard.

Supervisor Catherine Stefani called the commission into question in April 2020 when she alleged the body’s nonprofit fiscal agent may have improperly submitted invoices for administrative costs and the salaries of two staff members. The commission seat holders are unpaid and the body has since moved under the fiscal purview of the health department. 

Some commission members have taken issue with working under the health department, contending it threatens their ability to independently provide oversight. 

“We’re being overseen by the department that we’re supposed to have oversight of,” Vigil said. 

‘Lives Are at Risk’

The city is in the midst of an overdose crisis that’s claiming over two lives every day, according to preliminary data from the Chief Medical Examiner’s Office. Meanwhile, people with mental illness cycle through the city’s hospitals and emergency services.

The Department of Public Health referred questions about the commission vacancies to the Board of Supervisors. Board President Aaron Peskin did not reply to a request for comment.

“They come out, dictate to us and leave,” commission member Liza Murawski said of the health department. “There’s no accountability.”

Murawski said she’s been awaiting data on the number of case managers in city-funded programs for several years, spending countless hours pleading with the department to no avail. She wants to know if the city has enough case managers to meet client demands and connect them with lifesaving services.

The commission is supposed to monitor contracts and outcomes of the city’s mental health services and report their findings to the Board of Supervisors and the state. However, commission members said the city’s reliance on nonprofit contractors has created a firewall that makes it impossible to obtain the data needed to evaluate the services. 

In April, former commission member Terezie Bohrer resigned in an email to the clerk, explaining she thought she could be a better advocate “on the ‘outside’ with less governmental constraints.”

Others have accused the health department of being purposefully unhelpful in helping them obtain information necessary to do their jobs. 

“They’ve been pretty much keeping us in the dark,” Vigil said. “People’s lives are at risk.”

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But the Bay Area cannot keep up with the spectacular collapse of prices during Housing Bust 1. That had been a doozie.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

In San Francisco, the median price of single-family houses dropped by 8.5% in July from June, and by 14.1% from a year ago, to $1,460,000 million, according to the California Association of Realtors today.

In the 16 months since the peak in March 2022, the median price has plunged by 29%, or by $600,000 (red line).

The three-month moving average (3mma), which irons out some of the monthly ups-and-downs of median prices, fell by 2.6% in July from June and was down by 23.1%, or by $474,500, from its peak in May 2022 (green line).

Housing market downturns are slow-moving. Prices don’t plunge overnight, as you’ve come to expect from cryptos. Housing market downturns take years to play out. Housing Bust 1 started in different markets at different times. In San Francisco, the median price peaked in May 2007. Nearly five years later, in February 2012, it bottomed out, having dropped 31% from the peak.

Housing Bust 2 started after the peak in May 2022. May was month zero, and we’re now in month 16 of this downturn.

So we started comparing the Housing Bust 2 in San Francisco against Housing Bust 1, in terms of the percentage drop from the peak.

In 2007, the median price peaked in May; in 2022, it peaked in March. So we’re off by two months, which adds some seasonality to the mix. But we’re using the 3mma for both periods, which irons out some of the seasonality.

So we find:

• HB 2: In month 16, the median price 3mma was down 23.8% from peak
• HB 1: In month 16, the median price 3mma was down 13.6% from peak.
• Both experienced a sucker rally of three months that started in month 10 for HB 1 and in month 12 for HB 2, providing lots of false hopes.
• The rally was steeper in HB 2, after prices had dropped a lot faster.
• After three months, both rallies died and prices headed south, extinguishing the false hopes.

In the San Francisco Bay Area, the median price of single-family houses dropped by 5.2% in July from June, by 0.8% from a year ago, to $1,255,000, as the different counties moved to different drummers.

In the 15 months since the peak in April 2022, the median price has plunged by 16.3%, or by $245,000.

Given the large size of the nine-county Bay Area, with a population of around 7.6 million people and about ten times as many transactions as in San Francisco alone, the median price is less volatile. So the 3mma was not needed, and all comparisons here are between the unsmoothed original median prices.

The Bay Area’s Housing Bust 1 was atypical in how fast it moved. April 2007 was the peak. By February 2009, in less than two years, it had plunged by 59%. It then rose and re-dropped a few times, and by January 2012, it was still down by 54% from May 2007. Then it took off again.

In the Bay Area’s Housing Bust 1, the median price plunged over the first 15 months by 40%. Prices just kept plunging without any kind of rally. That was very fast for housing downturns.

Housing Bust 2 started out plunging even faster, but then had this magnificent rally, perhaps driven by the magnificent Nasdaq rally, that has now also ended, and prices turned south again:

Look, the Bay Area, and particularly the most expensive counties, are a part of the US where “Housing Crisis” means homes are too expensive, even starter shacks are too expensive, for people to be able to afford to live here.

So there is constant political juggling over creating taxpayer-subsidized “affordable housing” and other subsidies. The problem simply is that homes are too expensive, and creating subsidies – whether subsidized housing or down-payment assistance, or whatever – isn’t going to help, and may make the pricing situation worse.

What is needed is for the market to sort out this “Housing Crisis.” The market needs to be allowed and encouraged to sort it out. That’s really the only way to solve the Housing Crisis.

The Fed’s interest rate repression and QE, which drove up all asset prices, did an amazing job in the SF Bay Area to create this Housing Crisis. Higher interest rates (we just discussed them, good lordy) and QT (the Fed has shed $759 billion in securities) should be allowed to undo that damage, with the market letting home prices find their balance to where people don’t have to leave – and they did leave in large numbers! – in order to dodge the ridiculous housing costs. The local economy would function a lot better if home prices are allowed to find an economically sustainable level.

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PHILADELPHIA — As motorists struggled with the first day of what is expected to be a month-long commute on Monday, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro signed a declaration of emergency to expedite the rebuilding of a bridge over Interstate 95 that collapsed after being damaged in a fire Gasoline tanker had gone up in flames.

The Northeast Philadelphia fire and bridge collapse are under investigation by the National Transportation Safety Board. Details about what might have started the fire were few, but after the gasoline ignited, experts said it could easily have reached temperatures high enough to threaten the strength of the steel and concrete supporting the bridge .

Officials said replacing the bridge — and repairing the adjacent southbound bridge, which has been deemed unsafe for traffic — could take months. Demolition work began on Monday. The declaration of emergency has made $7 million in state funds immediately available and the state can proceed without complying with normal bidding rules.

The collapse of the bridge, which carries about 160,000 vehicles a day, shut down traffic on surrounding roads and dealt an economic blow to the region by leaving a section of the East Coast’s busiest freeway impassable. The detour involves diverting traffic onto US 1, a much smaller road north and west of the bridge.

Mapping the closure of Philadelphia Interstate 95 and new detour routes

Flashing freeway signs on northbound I-95 warned motorists of the collapse about 120 miles away in Columbia, Maryland.

“Accident in Philadelphia at exit 26,” read the message. “All lanes closed.”

Despite the closure, a steady stream of vehicles continued Monday into the heart of the city, past Lincoln Financial Field and an attorney’s billboard with a message reminiscent of Philadelphia asking drivers, “Are you hurt?”

Downtown traffic signs warned that I-95 was closed and urged motorists to use Interstate 676. Traffic swerved on the detour like a school of fish.

A few cars stayed as far as exit 26, where the exit ramp led to side streets lined with row houses, car lots, tire shops, and appliance stores. Traffic pushed forward slowly, bumper to bumper, including a slow parade of cars, trucks loaded with building materials, public transit buses, and a red Toyota Camry with black-painted rims driven by plumber Dave Marciano.

Marciano, 44, grew up nearby but now resides in New Jersey. Many of his customers are from Northeast Philadelphia and the neighborhoods near the collapse.

He stopped at a gas station on Cottman Avenue, where he was filling up after a long night at the nearby casino where he lost “everything,” including his wallet. He was on his way to a job and said the traffic only made his bad day worse.

“It’s never like that,” he said over the hum of the news helicopters. “Cops block everything.”

Around the Tacony neighborhood, police SUVs blocked roads leading east to the Delaware River and the collapsed freeway. Marciano said the closure will “disrupt everything” as his job requires driving through North Philadelphia.

“It’s an inconvenience to drive on 95 from the start,” he said, echoing a common complaint from Philadelphians about road projects that never seem to be completed.

Marciano said he’s not sure how he’ll be doing over the next few months. “Leave earlier,” he said. “I’m pretty smart when it comes to figuring things out.”

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said Monday he spoke with Shapiro (D) and Philadelphia Mayor Jim Kenney (D). The chief of the Federal Highway Administration was at the scene and federal agencies responsible for trucking and hazmat transportation were involved in the response, officials said.

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg spoke about the Philadelphia freeway collapse during the 2023 annual convention and legislative summit on June 12. (Video: The Washington Post)

Buttigieg said the region “will have the full support of the US Department of Transportation until normality is restored.”

While state officials consider how to restore the freeway, it will be up to the NTSB to investigate the incident. Sarah Sulick, a spokeswoman for the panel, said the team charged with the investigation consisted of experts in trucking and hazardous materials, highways and emergency response.

Pennsylvania’s governor says rebuilding the Interstate-95 overpass will take months

The Board is expected to issue preliminary findings of fact in the coming weeks, but a full report is expected to take at least a year. The final report could include recommendations on how to prevent similar incidents in the future.

The collapsed bridge was constructed in 2016 and is considered in good condition, according to the state. It was built as part of a $270 million project to replace bridges along a section of I-95 and make other highway upgrades.

Andy Herrmann, a former president of the American Society of Civil Engineers, said burning gasoline seemed the likely cause of the collapse. While standard design guides consider seismic protection and other risks, fire protection is not usually a priority, Herrmann said.

“The cost of fireproofing all overpasses across the country would be enormous,” he said.

A study funded by the Federal Highway Administration found that fires in the United States caused bridge collapses 30 times from 1980 to 2012. The broken bridges were made of steel 45 percent of the time, concrete 17 percent, and wood 38 percent, according to University at Buffalo researchers.

“The crash of a tanker carrying a large quantity of flammable substances, forest fires or arson can bring down a modern bridge,” the researchers wrote in 2013.

They also found that “even if a fire caused the failure, in most cases there is also another cause of the failure,” such as the combined effects of fire and collision.

In 2007, a gas tanker overturned near the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge and caught fire, causing a section of the freeway to collapse. In 2017, an elevated section of Interstate 85 in Georgia collapsed after a fire. The NTSB concluded that the cause had been caused by rolls of plastic and pieces of fiberglass stored under the street.

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october 11, 2022Updated: Oct. 13, 2022 6:32pm

Opened in 1927, the Ahwahnee Hotel in Yosemite is one of the “great lodges” of the US National Parks system. Many guests have reported strange happenings on the hotel’s sixth floor. (Courtesy of Yosemite National Park Service/MCT)

Handout, HO/MCT

The famous 95-year-old Ahwahnee Hotel at Yosemite National Park will be closed for 8 weeks at the beginning of 2023 for seismic upgrades, according to the park.

The $31.6 million project — funded by the Great American Outdoors Act of 2020 — consists of a major seismic upgrade throughout the hotel as well as a kitchen renovation, according to a Yosemite National Park press release. Kitchen project work is currently underway and the seismic safety upgrade will begin near the end of the year.

“The Ahwahnee is a crown jewel of national park lodges” said Cicely Muldoon, Yosemite National Park superintendent. “This much-needed work will ensure the Ahwahnee is seismically safe for present and future generations of Yosemite visitors.”

The seismic support upgrade will focus on bracing the chimneys and support walls, replacing window frames and dining room glass in high use visitor areas, the release added. The current central cooling system will also be updated along with improvements to the fireplace.

The Ahwahnee — which opened in 1927, contains 97 guest rooms and 24 cottages — will be closed for reservations from Jan. 2 till March 2 and will not be accepting reservations during that time due to the construction.

Famous visitors to the historic park have included presidents and international dignitaries such as John F. Kennedy and Queen Elizabeth II.

Joel Umanzor (he/him) is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: joel.umanzor@sfchronicle.com

Joel Umanzor joined The San Francisco Chronicle as a breaking news reporter in 2022. A 2021-2023 Hearst Fellow, he was previously a breaking news reporter on The Houston Chronicle’s Metro desk.

Originally from Richmond, Calif., Umanzor graduated from San Francisco State University in 2021. When not in the newsroom or chasing down a source, he can be found painting, listening to hip-hop or watching sports.

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Tiger King star Allen Glover is detained at the Beaufort County Detention Center in South Carolina after being arrested for driving an open container, driving with a license revoked and driving under the influence of alcohol.

The BC sheriff’s department pulled the former handyman from Greater Wynnewood Exotic Animal Park Wednesday at 10 p.m. due to a “defect in his vehicle,” according to TMZ.

Allen – whose first prison term was at the age of 18 – was arrested in the parking lot of a strip club in Valley Brook, OK, just 14 months earlier for a DUI not driving.

Caught! Tiger King star Allen Glover is detained at the Beaufort County Detention Center in South Carolina after being arrested for driving an open container, driving with a license revoked and driving under the influence of alcohol

Joe “Exotic” Maldonado Passage famously paid Glover $ 3,000 to cut off the head of his archenemy – Big Cat Rescue founder Carole Baskin – but he never intended to.

The 58-year-old former roadside zoo owner then offered an undercover FBI agent $ 10,000 to “follow the 60-year-old big cat rights activist into a mall parking lot and just lock her up and drive off.”

Joe spent the last three years in Grady County Jail in Chickasha, OK; but the Denver 10th District Court of Appeals ruled on July 14 that his 22-year sentence was reduced to 17 for technical reasons.

Maldonado Passage regularly updates fans on social media about his legal path to obtain a pardon and fully challenge his conviction.

Remember him The BC sheriff’s department pulled the former Greater Wynnewood Exotic Animal Park craftsman Wednesday at 10pm because of a “defect in his vehicle.”

Mug shot 2020: Allen – whose first jail time was at the age of 18 – was arrested in the parking lot of a strip club in Valley Brook, OK, just 14 months earlier for a DUI not driving

Key witness: Joe ‘Exotic’ Maldonado-Passage famously paid Glover $ 3,000 to cut off the head of his arch enemy, Big Cat Rescue founder Carole Baskin (R), but he never intended to

“The truth will land in President Biden’s lap. Thanks to Jeff [Lowe] for giving out everything he recorded while Agent Bryant and Amanda Green were obstructing justice, committed perjuries and conspired to kidnap me, ”the openly gay polygamist with guns wrote on Facebook on Tuesday.

“And Carole and Howard” [Baskin] are right in the middle. Thanks Jeff, James [Garretson], and Allen [Glover]. Now let’s add [John Reinke] to my witnesses and we got that done. Even my oldest brother performed. Pity [my ex-‘husband’] John Finlay doesn’t. ‘

Joe’s attorney, John M. Phillips, posted a video Tuesday of meeting her “secret weapon,” Jeff Lowe, who briefly took over Greater Wynnewood Exotic Animal Park.

Joe’s mug shot from 2018: The 58-year-old former roadside zoo owner (pictured) then offered an undercover FBI agent $ 10,000 to follow the 60-year-old big cat rights activist “into a parking lot in a mall and simply cover her and “drive away”

‘I’m Done with the Carole Baskin Saga’: Joe spent the last three years in Grady County Jail in Chickasha, OK; but the Denver 10th District Court of Appeals ruled on July 14 that his 22-year sentence was reduced to 17 for technical reasons

“The truth will fall into President Biden’s lap.”

“#Freejoeexotic”: Joe’s attorney John M. Phillips (L) posted a video on Tuesday in which he meets her “secret weapon” Jeff Lowe (R), who briefly took over the Greater Wynnewood Exotic Animal Park

Despite its myriad of flaws, Maldonado Passage is certainly a colorful character who ran for both president and governor of Oklahoma in 2016.

Meanwhile, Hedwig and the Angry Inch’s John Cameron Mitchell is working hard on the Australian set of the limited Peacock series Joe Exotic, which is also streamed on NBC and USA Network.

Kate McKinnon of SNL produces and plays Carole Baskin alongside Dennis Quaid, Kyle MacLachlan, William Fichtner, Brian Van Holt, Joel Marsh Garland, Dean Winters and Lex Mayson.

Spin-off series is coming: Meanwhile, John Cameron Mitchell of Hedwig and the Angry Inch (pictured on Jan.

Accumulation of over 34 million viewers! Tiger King: Murder, Mayhem and Madness ranked first on Netflix’s Top 10 Most-Streamed Netflix Lists for 25 days between March and April 2020

Here, Kitty Kitty: The eight-part documentary series by directing duo Eric Goode & Rebecca Chaikli really became a pop culture phenomenon in the age of COVID-19 quarantine, spawning a number of spin-offs

Justin Tipping directs the series’ first four episodes based on 2020 Robert Moors Wondery podcasts, Joe Exotic and Over My Dead Body.

Tiger King: Murder, Mayhem and Madness ranked # 1 on Netflix’s top 10 most-streamed list for 25 days in a row between March and April 2020 – with over 34 million viewers.

The eight-part documentaries by directing duo Eric Goode & Rebecca Chaikli became a real pop culture phenomenon in the age of COVID-19 quarantine and spawned a number of spin-offs.

The post Tiger King’s handyman-turned-‘hitman’ Allen Glover arrested for second DUI in 14 months appeared first on DAILY SAN FRANCISCO BAY NEWS.

“A lot of stress, a lot of crying from the start,” said Maria.

In April, she paid moving companies to move her belongings to her new home in Wake County.

“They answered me a couple of times. They said the stuff would be loaded on the truck in two or three days, but that was a month and a half ago,” she said.

During their stay in California, Maria and her husband received a binding move estimate from the Florida-based company Alliance Moving & Storage.

“They seemed a lot cheaper, they called us $ 2,500,” she said.

When it was time to move, the movers didn’t show up on the scheduled date, and when they finally showed up, only one man from Deluxe Moving from New York showed up with a new contract, and the price of the move jumped from $ 2,500 to more than $ 5,800.

“Because we were so close to our moving date, we felt we had no other options and just do what they said,” said Maria.

Maria said it took the one man from Deluxe Moving 10 hours to get all of his belongings into the truck and his floor was damaged in the process.

Eventually everything was loaded into the truck and Maria flew to Wake County with her husband and moved into her house in April, expecting Deluxe Moving to deliver everything.

However, it is now four months later and they are still waiting.

She said when her husband called Deluxe Moving to get an update, “they told him they were loading the truck this weekend and now they say they will be loading it in a week.”

Frustrated with nothing of her belongings, Maria contacted the troubleshooter Diane Wilson.

Wilson approached both companies.

Alliance Moving & Storage said that it is only the broker, not the actual carrier, and as stated in the contract, it is not responsible for anything against the carrier. They apologized as brokers and said they would continue to stand up for Maria. A representative added that due to this and other complaints related to the Deluxe Moving Group, Alliance has terminated its agreement with the carrier.

As for Deluxe Moving, after several attempts, Wilson finally got a rep on the phone who said they were facing a driver shortage due to the COVID-19 pandemic and claimed their goods were on the way.

Maria says she’s been hearing that for months.

“Not all hope is lost, but I would just say 95% of hope is lost,” she said.

Hopefully the movers will get through, but Maria is about to file an insurance claim.

She is not alone. Wilson has heard of other families facing the same situation when they move.

To prevent this from happening to you, get several estimates. If a price is too good to be true, that’s a red flag.

Next, do your research, read reviews, and see if the mover is licensed. If you are moving within the state, contact the North Carolina Utilities Commission at (919) 733-7766 or online to access the list of certified moving companies. You can also ask the commission if it has any complaints against the company. If you’re moving from one state to another, the US Department of Transportation’s website can help you find registered and insured moving companies and check for complaints.

Once you have chosen a moving company, take a close look at the contract and you will receive everything in writing, including the price and possible changes, as well as the pick-up and delivery dates. Finally, try paying with a credit card to protect your move.

Copyright © 2021 WTVD-TV. All rights reserved.

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The city of San Francisco, in partnership with the Yerba Buena Center for the Arts (YBCA), has announced that it will grant 130 local artists $ 1,000 per month for six months as the arts scene there and around the world continues amid the ongoing Covid- 19 crisis. Funding, which comes from a $ 870,000 city scholarship approved by the San Francisco Arts Commission late last year, is administered by the YBCA and is open to individuals in all areas of the arts including the visual arts, music, dance, creative writing, Film, theater and art education. Applications are accepted by April 15, recipients will be notified by April 20, and first payments will be made in May.

To qualify, applicants must be able to provide proof of residency in any of the thirteen of the twenty-seven San Francisco zip codes that are known to have the highest number of Covid-19 cases, as well as meet other criteria. Applicants must have an annual personal income of less than $ 60,900 and demonstrate that their practice is “rooted in a historically marginalized community,” according to the YBCA website. The financing is not tied to any conditions; Recipients don’t have to use the money to produce a project or show how they spent it.

“From the day the pandemic hit San Francisco, we knew this health crisis was going to hit artists, and painters in particular,” said San Francisco Mayor, London Breed. “The arts are really critical to our local economy and are an integral part of our long-term recovery. If we help the arts recover, San Francisco will recover. “

Districts where resident artists are eligible for the scholarship include the hard-hit Bayview and Mission. Latinos in the mission in particular have suffered as a result: Although they only make up 15 percent of the population there, Latin Americans are so far responsible for 41 percent of Covid-19 cases and 21 percent of deaths in the district.

ALL PICTURES

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California already has a historic year for wildfires.

So far, 1.66 million hectares have been burned – an area five times the size of the city of Los Angeles. Almost no part of the state is untouched. From the Santa Cruz Mountains to Riverside County, the slopes of Mount Hamilton to the Napa Valley and the northern Sierra, 15,800 Florida and New Jersey firefighters are fighting two dozen major fires, many of which were triggered by rare thunderstorms two weeks ago.

And although the fire brigade is finally gaining the upper hand with many, fire experts have a clear message: This year is particularly dry and the worst could still come.

“We’re approaching the peak of the fire season,” said Daniel Berlant, a spokesman for Cal Fire, the state’s main fire service.

There are at least two more months, and possibly three more, during which the risk of huge new fires will continue to increase, before the autumn rains hit. And 2020 has seen the second most acres burned in a year in modern history, after just 2018 when 1.97 million hectares were burned.

“It’s so important that we get public help,” said Berlant. “We have been incredibly busy the past two weeks. These were fires kindled by Mother Nature. We need people who can reduce the risk of man-made fires. “

An analysis of the precipitation patterns in autumn over the past ten years speaks for itself.

Using San Francisco as a proxy for Northern California, the first significant rain shower of half an inch or more in seven of the last 10 years did not occur until after November 15. That’s 11 weeks now. In the other three years it came on October 16 at the earliest. That’s another seven weeks.

“We hold our breath, so to speak, until we just get into the rainy season,” said Jan Null, a meteorologist at Golden Gate Weather Services in Half Moon Bay, who combed through the data.

“Just because current events are slowly subsiding doesn’t mean we won’t see more fires,” he said. “We are heading for what is usually the most dangerous part of the fire season.”

BOULDER CREEK, CA – AUGUST 19: Volunteer firefighters for the Boulder Creek Fire District view the direction of the fire before dispatching to fight the fire at the CZU August Lightning Complex on August 19, 2020 in Boulder Creek, California ( Dai News Group Sugano / Bay Area)

The past explains the future.

Eight of the ten deadliest fires of all time in California occurred in October or November, from the Camp Fire that killed 85 people in the city of Paradise in 2018, to the Wine Country Fires in Napa and Sonoma Counties in 2017 to Oakland Hills Fire in 1991.

Similarly, seven of the ten most devastating fires in California history, as measured by the number of houses burned, occurred in October or November.

Experts say that there are two main reasons: lack of rain and strong, dry wind.

Unlike most other states, it almost never rains in California in the summer. As part of California’s Mediterranean climate, most rainfall ends in April each year and, apart from a few light splashes, doesn’t really start again until November. This means that by October it was almost six months without rain.

Grass, bushes and trees are therefore usually the driest of the year in October.

Records show that most of California’s worst fire seasons, ranked by acres burned, come after a drier than normal winter. Why? In wet winters, there is more snow in the Sierra Nevada. The longer it lasts into summer, the less space there is to burn. And more rain means more moisture in the vegetation.

Unfortunately this year was a dry winter.

On April 1, the national snowpack in the Sierra was only 54% of its historical average. Last year it was 161%, and California ended up with a sub-par fire year with only 259,148 acres burned nationwide.

The same goes for rains. As of October 1, San Francisco received only 50% of historical average rainfall, San Jose 49%, Oakland 42%, and Sacramento 53%. In contrast, Los Angeles and San Diego had normal rainfall years and received 101% and 133% of their historical averages, respectively.

Simply put, conditions in Northern California are drier than normal, which has contributed to the explosive spread of the CZU, SCU, and LNU fires this month.

Craig Clements, director of the Fire Weather Research Laboratory at San Jose State University, called the thunderstorms in mid-August, which caused 12,000 lightning strikes and started around 700 new fires, a rare occurrence. California haven’t seen anything like it since 2008. People shouldn’t read too much into it as a predictor for the rest of the year, he said. Instead, they should look at the broader rainfall patterns, combined with a heat wave that much of the state suffered just before the fires, and daily measurements like overnight humidity.

“It’s crazy that we had so many ignitions at the same time,” said Clements. “For many it is apocalyptic. But it was a weather event. Let’s hope that this was the big event of the year. “

Huge amounts of dead bush, trees, and other vegetation, some killed during the state’s five-year drought and others piled up from decades of firefighting, are making the fires hotter and bigger.

Clements and his students regularly test the amount of water in chamois, a common flowering shrub, to determine the moisture content of the fuel.

In Quail Hollow Ranch County Park in the Santa Cruz Mountains near Ben Lomond, they found a moisture content of 67% on August 16. It was there in the middle of September last year. In other words, bushes and other vegetation in the Santa Cruz Mountains that are still burning are as dry now as they were a month later last year.

“We’re seeing fuel moisture levels that match our drought years,” he said. “Because we probably won’t get any rain for the next few weeks, these fuels will continue to be dry. And they are already critical. “

Climate change also plays a role. The world’s 10 hottest years, dating back to 1880 when modern temperature records began, have all occurred since 1998, according to NASA and NOAA, the parent agency of the National Weather Service. Hotter weather dries out vegetation earlier in the year, resulting in a longer fire season.

Add to this the strong “Santa Ana” winds in Southern California and “Diablo” winds in Northern California, which blow hot inland air over the state, increase the risk of fire and typically peak in October.

FAIRFIELD, CA – AUGUST 19: A Cal Fire Tanker drops fire retardant fabrics on a hill behind homes in the Rolling Hills neighborhood of Fairfield, California on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. Residents were ordered when the LNU Lightning Complex wildfire threatened the neighborhood. (Anda Chu / Bay Area News Group)

“We have a big fire season ahead of us. We call it the year of fire, ”said Robert Baird, director of fire and aviation management for the Pacific Southwest for the US Forest Service in Vallejo. “People shouldn’t let their vigilance down.”

Baird, whose own family was evacuated from their home near Vacaville for one night two weeks ago because of the LNU complex fire, said people across the state should remove the vegetation around their homes and have an evacuation plan and list create with objects they would take if they suddenly had to go because of an rampant fire.

“People need to look at red flag warnings as if they were tornado warnings,” he said. “They are a grueling combination of dry air, wind and heat. They can be murderers and have killed people. “

“If there is a fire on the ground,” he warned, “it will be too late to make your preparations.”

U.S. Forest Service firefighters clear debris from a steep slope as they tackle the Dolan Fire in Big Sur on Tuesday, August 25, 2020. (David Royal / Monterey Herald Correspondent)

The post What to anticipate within the coming months appeared first on DAILY SAN FRANCISCO BAY NEWS.

As the indicators that have emerged as a result of the pandemic show.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

The US economy has turned into the weirdest brew ever. Some aspects are booming, such as everything to do with online shopping and entertainment, while other aspects such as airlines and hotels are in the worst of depression ever. Well, eight months after the pandemic, here is my monthly update on recreation in the cities, in terms of what people are doing and where they are going, if anything, as seen from the indicators that have surfaced in almost real time as a result the pandemic.

These raw, unadjusted indicators compare the daily or weekly data this year with the level just before the pandemic or at the same time last year. Uncleaned the dates, she stumbled upon the shift in the Labor Day calendar, which fell on September 7th this year, while it fell on September 2nd last year. Independence Day was similar. But that’s the beauty of raw data.

People who go to Places of Commerce.

How many people visit stores, malls, restaurants, hotels, cinemas, airports, hospitals, offices, other commercial centers, and other landmarks in the 40 largest subway areas in the United States? The AEI’s weekly index tracks this based on cell phone GPS data from Safegraph.com (everyone tracks cell phone GPS data, including Google for their traffic information on their maps).

It does not track how much money they spent but how many people have visited trading venues and compares the number of visits on a weekly basis to the number of visits in the week before Covid, which ended January 15. A value of 100% would mean that the visits are “old normal” again in January. However, be aware that January is always a bit slow in many parts of the country given the hangover after the holidays. Still, that’s the point of reference.

The graph shows the AEI data released today for the week ending October 18. The top bold blue line is Kansas City (80% of the January level). The lower bold red line is San Francisco (45% of the January level). The bold lines in between represent Dallas (69%), Philadelphia (60%), New York (55%), and Los Angeles (49%). Click on the diagram to enlarge it.

Restaurants measured by “seated guests”.

OpenTable provides daily data on “seated guests” and tracks how many people – walk-ins and those who made reservations online or by phone – actually sat in restaurants to eat and drink compared to the same day of the week the same week last Year. based on thousands of restaurants in the US who shared this data with OpenTable. I converted the daily numbers to a 7-day moving average to accommodate the daily fluctuations.

These are the types of restaurants that guests can make reservations at. This does not apply to cafes, fast food restaurants, delis and the like. Currently, in the eighth month of the pandemic, the “seated guests” are still 41.1% fewer than last year at this point in time:

The number of restaurants that took reservations before the pandemic and are now taking reservations again has still decreased by an average of 26.5% in the last 30 days compared to the same period last year. This is a crude substitute for how many of these restaurants have reopened – grossly because some outdoor dining only have reservations canceled as diners may not show up if it’s suddenly too cold and windy (one of our favorites in San Francisco has that done; it is open, but it no longer takes reservations):

The discrepancy between the number of restaurants open, which is only 26.5% lower than last year, and the number of seated diners, which is 41.1% lower, can partly be explained by reduced capacity in restaurants inside or outside become.

Go to the office.

How many people walk into offices every day compared to the Good Times? Kastle Systems provides access systems for 3,600 buildings and 41,000 companies in 47 states and uses this data to determine “office occupancy”. The “10-city average” office occupancy in Kastle is currently 27.4% of the pre-pandemic level from the beginning of March and is thus still 72.6% lower than at the beginning of March.

Office occupancy with the subway: The utilization of these 10 subways is shown as a percentage of their level from the beginning of March – the “high-end” is a utilization of only 43.3% of the level from the beginning of March:

1. Dallas: 43.3%
2. Houston: 36.8%
3. Austin: 35.4%
4. Los Angeles: 34.0%
5. Philadelphia: 28.8%
6. Washington DC: 24.0%
7. Chicago: 21.8%
8. San José: 18.2%
9. New York: 17.4%
10. San Francisco: 14.7%

The weekly “Back to Work Barometer” from Kastle shows how the office occupancy in these 10 metros has developed since the beginning of March (graphic from Kastle Systems, click to enlarge):

The graph above is not a measure of employment, but rather a measure of the impact of home work on office occupancy. Offices may be open, but instead of 1,000 people working in an office building on a given day, there might only be 200 people working in the office and 800 people working remotely.

Landlords and their lenders who still think working from home is just a slip up will be billed in due course. Read … Synchrony Financial Releases Radical Work-from-Home Plan, Layoffs, And “Office Footprint Reduction”

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Drone shots of roofs with aluminum and steel shingles. Get a bird’s eye view of the details of each installation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=videoseries

The post Down-to-Earth View of the “Restoration” in Close to-Actual Time, Eight Months into the Pandemic appeared first on DAILY SAN FRANCISCO BAY NEWS.