Millions of Californians say their state is switching to renewable energy sources too quickly, and experts say that its strict and costly new rules on electric cars will price more people out of the Golden State.

Polling from the University of California, Berkeley, has revealed that, while Californians broadly support more wind and solar farms, nearly a third of residents say the switch to green power is taking place ‘too fast.’

Meanwhile, Stanford University experts warn that looming new rules requiring Californians to spend tens of thousands of extra dollars on costly electric vehicles will drive ever more from the state.

California recorded a net loss of 341,866 residents last year, many moving across state lines to Arizona and Texas, which have lower taxes, cheaper homes and looser environmental rules.

Californians are split on the state’s speedy moves against reliance on fossil fuels  

‘As the Golden State’s exorbitant cost of living and strict environmental mandates grow, Californians are hitting the road,’ researchers from the school’s Institute for Economic Policy Research, posted online.

Stanford’s Bruce Cain says California is moving too fast

California is at the vanguard of cutting out fossil fuels, which release planet-heating gasses when burned, producing more than a third of its power from renewables, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

In recent weeks, officials have greenlighted a study into wave and tidal energy potential off the state’s 840-mile coastline, and required more than 5,300 companies to report more details about their carbon dioxide emissions.

Gov Gavin Newsom, a Democrat understood to have ambitions to become US president, also signed a bill to study and plan for solar farms running in the vacant lots alongside the more than 15,000 miles of state highways.

The state has also asked the Biden administration to approve a plan to require all new vehicles sold in the state by 2035 to be either electric or plug-in electric hybrids, speeding the end of gasoline-powered vehicles. 

California’s Democratic Gov Gavin Newsom has long championed renewable energy and electric cars

A poll by Berkley’s Institute of Governmental Studies shows that voters broadly support this switch to the growing number of wind turbines and solar arrays that can be seen across the state.

But that still leaves 29 percent of voters saying the switch from hydrocarbons is happening ‘too fast.’

This is especially true among Republican voters. More than two thirds — 67 percent — say they want the administration of Democratic Gov Gavin Newsom to slow down the move away from fossil fuels.

‘The state’s voters largely back its climate change initiatives, although the partisan differences evident in many other policy areas are also present.’ said the institute’s co-director Eric Schickler.

Older Californians, as well as those living in the Central Valley, the North Coast and the Sierra Nevada mountain range, are more likely than others to use oil, coal, and other carbon fuels for longer, the poll showed.

A Tesla Supercharger station in San Francisco, California. Nice, if you can afford it

A common site in California nowadays: A solar farm, near Lancaster

Stanford scholars Bruce Cain and Preeti Hehmeyer in their new research warn that California’s speedy switch to renewables could be denting the appeal of a state that has in recent years been waving goodbye to residents.

The state’s population grew massively throughout the 20th Century, but peaked in about 2019-2020 and has been slowly declining since, thanks to fewer births and more residents moving out, often for cheaper living in Texas and Arizona.

In their paper, California’s population drain, Cain and Hehmeyer argue that tight environmental rules and the additional costs they place on consumers make one more reason for residents to leave.

Californians already pay over the odds for housing, they say. Making them shell out an average of $640,000 on an EV truck, when the diesel-powered equivalent is just $160,000, could be the last straw for a cash-strapped resident.

‘There is reason to be hopeful that these prices will ultimately come down and that charging infrastructure will eventually catch up, but the intervening years could be rough, and with more population and commercial outflows,’ the eight-page report. 

California voters were keener on EV subsidies than those in Texas or Arizona 

In their survey of more than 3,000 people across Arizona, California and Texas, they found that nearly of voters supported state subsidies for electric cars, another third was opposed.

Californians were significantly keener on EVs than residents of the other states.

The research was released at the same time as new US Census Bureau data revealed that California and New York combined lost nearly 1.4 million residents last year.

Overall, California recorded a net loss of 341,866 people, compared to 244,137 for New York.

Population experts have long studied America’s people flows.

Some explanations for interstate migration patterns are widely accepted.

Americans mostly relocate for better jobs, affordable housing, cheaper living costs, and to lower their tax bills.

America on the move: Texas, Florida, Georgia, and Arizona all counted more arrivals than departures 

Some move away from high crimes areas, homelessness, and the sight of drug addicts stumbling on the sidewalk.

Social problems have been a headache for officials in such cities as San Francisco and Portland.

Still, William Frey, a demographer at The Brookings Institution, a think tank, said Americans mostly hit the road for money.

‘Interstate movers are motivated by employment, housing, and family reasons,’ Frey told DailyMail.com.

The top relocation trends of recent years have seen New Yorkers flock to Florida and Californians choose Texas, he noted.

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SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) — The Marina Green — 74 acres that so many people love and cherish.

“That openness is a treasure that we have today,” said Dan Clarke, a concerned neighbor.

But that could change with a new project called “The Marina Improvement and Remediation Project.”

It could mean expanding the harbor footprint along Marina Green.

According to project supporters, this is what the Marina looks like today.

A rendering of what the Marina horizon looks like today is pictured.

A rendering of what the Marina horizon looks like today is pictured.

And what it could look like if the project proposal got the green light.

A rendering of what a new design of the Marina horizon could look like is pictured.

A rendering of what a new design of the Marina horizon could look like is pictured.

Here’s the issue: right beside the Marina Green is Gashouse Cove, an area that requires serious cleanup.

Laura Thompson is with “Keep the Waterfront Open.”

“PG&E is providing $190 million to close up that gas toxins that are coming up through the Gashouse Cove which is over by Fort Mason. That is the intent of the settlement to clean up that gas plant and toxins up,” said Thompson.

Many community members are upset.

MORE: SF civic pride campaign kicks off, rallies residents to support city

They say the SF Recreation and Park Department isn’t doing the cleanup and instead are pushing forward a controversial plan.

“Instead RPD, to use that money to clean up a minimal amount of the toxins and instead build a brand new big boat harbor in front of the last remaining waterfront area in front of the Marina Green,” said Thompson.

Frustrated community members protested today at SF City Hall right before the Recreation and Park Commission meeting, saying they want to maintain the Marina Green and its open waterfront.

“It’s a beautiful unique spot within San Francisco. People from all over the community use this place. To put a boat parking lot in front of Marina Green–it serves so few people when so many can get the advantages of this spot,” said Erin Roach with “Keep The Waterfront Open.”

MORE: Here’s where in Fisherman’s Wharf the GGP Ferris wheel would be relocated if approved

Outside City Hall, demonstrators carried signs that said, “No new boat harbor” and “Marina Green for the people.”

Inside meeting chambers, Recreation and Park Commissioners heard the proposal and nearly five dozen public comments.

The majority of the neighbors say “no-way” and that the plan is a “no-go”

Some even gave a thumbs down sign during the project presentation.

“People don’t want a harbor in front of the Marina Green,” said one speaker during public comment.

MORE: What San Francisco and Oakland are doing to increase their tree canopy in most vulnerable areas

“It is outrageous that I have to be here to plead that you not build a new harbor in front of the Marina Green,” said another speaker.

As part of the proposed plan, more than 200 boats would be relocated and moored along Marina Green.

Neighbors say that would block bay views.

Proponents of the plan say the plan would make the waterfront at Gashouse Cove more accessible.

MORE: SF’s wave-activated organ plays sounds of the sea

“We are for going ahead with the EIR. It will give lots of people a lot of opportunity to get on the water in the future,” said one speaker during public comment.

In the end, the Recreation and Park Commission unanimously voted to move forward with an environmental review study.

According to the Department of Recreation and Parks, commissioners added an amendment that the work include a financial feasibility study of the Marina with the objective of minimizing the number of slips in the West Harbor and identifying opportunities to add additional slips in the East Harbor.

The Department released this statement late Thursday afternoon:

The Marina Improvement and Remediation Project is an opportunity to clean up environmental pollution at the SF Marina while increasing public access and expanding recreation both in water and on land. This joint project with the San Francisco Recreation and Park Department and PG&E is governed by a 2021 settlement agreement approved by the Board of Supervisors.

Today’s action by the Recreation and Park Commission authorizes us to proceed with planning and design for environmental review under CEQA. This work will include a financial feasibility study of the Marina with the objective of minimizing the number of slips in the West Harbor and identifying opportunities to add additional slips in the East Harbor. The environmental review process is expected to take 18-24 months and includes an Environmental Impact Report, which will be prepared by the Planning Department. Once the review is complete, we will bring a proposed project back to the Commission for approval with the adoption of CEQA findings; the project will consider both community feedback and the purpose of the settlement to ensure an environmentally and financially sustainable marina.

If you’re on the ABC7 News app, click here to watch live

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San Francisco just moved one step closer to a controversial redesign of a Marina District harbor that would place yachts in front of one of the city’s most iconic views and clean up only some of the pollution the project was initially funded to deal with.

The San Francisco Recreation and Park Commission voted Thursday to move the project forward after an hourslong, sweltering hearing in front of a standing-room-only crowd that booed city staff as they laid out plans. 

The vote came despite an effort by two city leaders to pause the project until more members of the public have a chance to weigh in.

The project would add new, larger boat slips to the harbor, placing parked yachts directly in front of the popular Marina Green promenade. Dozens of people who spoke during public comment at Thursday’s meeting balked at that idea, saying the harbor extension would block the beautiful view of the Marin Headlands and Golden Gate Bridge, transforming one of the city’s most iconic public spaces into an enclave for wealthy yacht owners.

A man walks along the San Francisco Bay Trail at Marina Green, which currently offers an open view of the bay. | Source: Jason Henry for The Standard

“It’s not just for the rich people,” 70-year-old Lower Pac Heights resident Sharon Wong said about the Marina Green. 

Boaters, meanwhile, mourned the potential loss of a training ground for young sailors, while environmental advocates said the project failed to clean up enough pollution on the site.

Wong, who grew up near the city’s densely populated Chinatown, said those open bay views have offered her a lifelong connection to nature. She lamented the potential loss of one of the best places people can come to escape the hustle and bustle of Downtown, where, Wong said, “we don’t have this big expansive nature.”

A map outlines the proposed changes to the San Francisco Marina. The project would relocate boat slips from the southeast corner of the Marina to in front of Marina Green. | Source: Courtesy of San Francisco Rec and Park.

The marina redesign stems from a decadeslong legal battle between San Francisco and PG&E. 

The utility’s former coal gasification plant near the harbor polluted the bay for years, and the city sued in 2001 over chemical compounds called polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons discovered in the sediments of the East Harbor, according to the City Attorney’s Office. In 2021, PG&E settled with San Francisco, committing to pay up to $160 million to clean up harbor pollution. The settlement set off a multiyear discussion about how, exactly, to spend the money.

The proposal that came out of the process and went before the commission Thursday would radically change the marina. Many of the boat slips in the East Harbor, also known as Gashouse Cove, would be demolished, leaving a new shallow-water basin open to small boats like kayaks and canoes. Those boat slips would move to an expanded West Harbor, protected by a new breakwater, that would sit directly in front of the Marina Green.

The Recreation and Park Department argues that removing toxic pollutants from the lower East Harbor and rebuilding its boat slips, as many advocates want, would actually increase pollution because there’s natural sediment that covers the toxic material, according to department spokesperson Tamara Aparton.

“Rebuilding rather than relocating the harbor would require this natural sediment cover to be removed to accommodate the dredging required for the return of boats to the area,” Aparton told The Standard. “Removing the sediment cover would generate significant sediment pollution during construction.”

Boats float in the East Harbor at Gashouse Cove in San Francisco. | Source: Jason Henry for The Standard

But critics of the project, including city supervisors Aaron Peskin and Ahsha Safaí, speculate that the decision to leave the toxic material untouched is driven by dollar signs. That’s because the proposed slips in front of the Marina Green would be larger, allowing the department to charge more to park. And the new breakwater would reduce the costly dredging needed to maintain the harbor.

“This can’t be driven by the desire just to make money,” Safaí told The Standard.

Currently, dredging the harbor costs millions, Recreation and Park Department Project Manager Monica Scott said during the meeting. As a result, the department subsidizes the marina with $4 million from its general fund each year, Scott said.

“That is truly the goal that we’re trying to move away from when we talk about financial sustainability for the marina,” Scott said.

The project, as proposed, would spend about $68 million cleaning up pollution and $54 million on harbor renovations, Scott said.

Thursday’s commission vote directed city staff to conduct an environmental analysis of the project, which could take up to two years. In an apparent nod to the overwhelming public opposition to the project, commissioners also directed city staff to look into the financial feasibility of minimizing the number of slips in the West Harbor, where they have the potential to block views.

A person looks out at boats at the San Francisco Marina. | Source: Jason Henry for The Standard

That consolation, however, didn’t sate Marina District resident Erin Roach, who has led opposition to the project.

“At the end of the day, [the Recreation and Park Department] is still trying to divert funds from this settlement to solve a separate issue with the West Harbor,” Roach said. “And in doing so, San Franciscans stand to lose a beloved landmark.”

Thursday’s vote did not bind the project to the current design, and it will come before the commission again once the environmental review wraps up. If it stays on track, construction would begin in 2026.

Whether the wiggle room introduced by the commission Thursday will warm Peskin to the process, which he previously described as authoritarian, is yet to be seen. He’s largely taken issue with a perceived lack of effort on the part of Recreation and Parks to involve community input.

“If the Recreation and Parks Commission doesn’t get the message,” he told The Standard ahead of the vote, “I imagine the Board of Supervisors will cut the funding.”

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SAN FRANCISCO — A water main break in San Francisco’s Cow Hollow neighborhood has flooded some businesses and created a massive sinkhole at Fillmore and Green Streets Monday.

The situation was unfolding on Fillmore Street between Green and Union Streets and is impacting residents and businesses in Cow Hollow and Pacific Heights. A reported break in a water main late Sunday evening led to a flood of water, mud and debris at Fillmore and Union as shown in video posted to social media.

On Monday morning, San Francisco police and Department of Public Works crews were at the intersection of Fillmore and Green where the large sinkhole had opened up. Heavy equipment has been brought into the area.

The Twitter account for the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission on Monday morning confirmed that “a 16-inch water main break was reported at Union and Fillmore Streets” on Sunday shortly before midnight.

Last night shortly before midnight, a 16-inch water main break was reported at Union and Fillmore Streets. SFPUC crews responded to the scene and worked through the night to stabilize the situation. @Stefani4CA @SF_emergency @SFMTA_Muni

— SF Water Power Sewer (@MySFPUC) September 11, 2023

SFPUC crews responded to the scene and worked through the night to stabilize the situation, the tweet said. 

The broken water main was cast iron and had been installed in 1949. Officials said the break also affected a nearby 8″ water main and noted that residents in the area near the break are experiencing intermittent water and temporary service interruptions.  

Sinkhole caused by a water main break at Fillmore and Green Streets.

CBS SF

Later in the afternoon, repairs were paused after PG&E crews arrived scene to isolate a gas main inside the work area. Once PG&E finished, SFPUC crews resumed repair work on the water mains.

People are being asked to avoid the area as crews continue to make emergency repairs on the sinkhole. However, residents who live near the sinkhole don’t have much choice.

Kate Mattimore, who moved the area about six months ago, expressed her dismay at the sight of the sinkhole just steps away from her front door. 

“Shocked, obviously. I mean, it looks insane,” she said.

Michelle Ung works at the nearby Union Street Coffee Roastery. She described the situation as “terrible” and expressed hope that business would return to normal once the area was reopened to the public.

“The leak is from a 16-inch water main that is probably around 70 years old, so this is a large pipe. It’s old,” said San Francisco Public Utilities Commission spokesperson Joseph Sweiss. “PUC crews worked to proactively replace about nine miles of these sometimes century-old pipes a year, but leaks still do happen in the city. We don’t know the main cause yet, but we are investigating.” 

The San Francisco Public Utilities Commission acknowledged that residents and businesses will likely be affected by the emergency repairs. At this point, they say it’s all about making sure that the area is safe and are asking for patience from locals. 

“These repairs vary. This is a large pipe. It is an old pipe,” said Sweiss.

Authorities are saying the repair job could take a week or more.

For now, residents like Mattimore find themselves navigating the area amid ongoing repair efforts. She was hopeful that the situation will be resolved swiftly. 

“It seems like a relatively quick response. We’ll see how long it’s gonna last. Time will tell,” she said.  

Jose Martinez contributed to this story.

More from CBS News

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Following six-and-a-half hours of public comment, the California Public Utilities Commission decided this evening to give both Cruise and Waymo unfettered access to San Francisco streets for their driverless cars.

As a result, the city could see hundreds or even thousands more self-driving cars picking up and dropping off fee-paying passengers.

With Commissioner Karen Douglas’ absence today, four commissioners took part in the voting. This included Commissioner John Reynolds — who has been through the revolving door twice, first serving at the CPUC from 2013 to 2019, then becoming Cruise’s legal counsel from 2019 to 2021, then rejoining the CPUC in 2022. He did not recuse himself from the vote.

The commission voted 3-1 in two votes, one for Waymo and one for Cruise. Commissioner Genevieve Shirona was the lone holdout, saying she wanted Cruise and Waymo to offer specific information about how they would prevent their driverless cars from interfering in emergency scenes.

“I ask the commission not to vote on the resolution today,” Shirona said, asking that the vote be delayed another three months, to November 1.

Her concerns followed testimony on Monday from top representatives of both police officers and firefighters in San Francisco, who had reiterated their view that the autonomous vehicles were “not ready for prime time.” The San Francisco Fire Department has, in the last year and a half, logged 55 “unusual occurrences” of self-driving cars interfering with fire equipment of fire personnel, moving abruptly or almost hitting fire hoses and firefighters, or blockading fire trucks within fire stations.

During today’s hearing, however, the public testimony was mixed: Groups affiliated with the driverless car companies — wearing yellow “Safety for All” shirts and packing the auditorium — spoke out in favor of the expansion, as did some labor unions.

Others criticized the robo-taxis’ effects on jobs, safety, and accessibility.

A representative with the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 6, whose members are likely to gain jobs servicing self-driving car hubs, said, “We call on the CPUC to approve Cruise and Waymo’s application to expand.”

And several members and representatives from SEIU Local 87, which represents janitorial workers, said the expansion of autonomous cars would “bring a new era of jobs.”

Both the IBEW Local 6 and SEIU Local 87 have signed labor-union agreements with Cruise as of Thursday, saying in a press release that the company will employ “dozens of workers who will construct and staff Cruise’s car-charging facilities.”

Many more unions, however, spoke out against the expansion, including, SEIU 1021, Teamsters and the California Labor Federation. It’s “affecting the livelihood of millions of American families,” they said in a joint statement.

The California Labor Federation, San Francisco Labor Council, other regional labor councils and around a dozen unions sent a letter to the CPUC on Wednesday, decrying the use of “automation and artificial intelligence to replace and de-skill workers.” The unions urged the state body to postpone the vote until it can gather more safety evidence and there is “a better understanding of the displacement of workers that will result.”

Some members of the public commented on Reynolds’s work at Cruise, too — but the commissioner defended his actions.

Reynolds said he had recused himself from autonomous vehicle votes for the first year following his stint at the company, but was now using his “familiarity with this emerging technology” to make decisions. He accused opponents of autonomous vehicles of using “anecdotal data analysis lacking sufficient rigor.”

Bob Stern, who co-wrote the Political Reform Act of 1974, said in an interview that Reynolds was indeed legally in the clear; the prohibition against him voting lasted just one year, he said.

The vote follows a months-long delay, during which several San Francisco officials and groups have urged the state body to pump its brakes on the rollout: The entirety of the Board of Supervisors opposes the expansion, city transportation and planning officials sent a letter to the CPUC imploring it to limit the planned rollout, and taxi drivers have frequently protested the expansion of the robotaxis as a threat to their livelihoods.

The San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency has logged 600 incidents involving autonomous cars since June 2022, when self-driving tests started in San Francisco, involving unexpected stops or other traffic disruptions.

It will likely herald a massive expansion of self-driving cars on San Francisco streets: Cruise’s CEO said on a July 25 earnings call that the city could handle “several thousand” Cruise vehicles on its streets — an expansion of perhaps tenfold or more from its current total of 303 Cruise cars permitted to operate in San Francisco. 

Waymo did not outline an expansion plan beyond saying it would grow “in a very measured way” from its 250 cars in San Francisco today.

The Vote: 3-1

For: Alice Reynolds, Darcie L. Houck, John Reynolds

Against: Genevieve Shiroma

Additional reporting by Joe Eskenazi.

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By Erik Sherman

August 09, 2023 at 08:46 AM

Researchers created a model to identify parameters that would indicate a financially viable conversion.

With rapidly falling office property valuations that, according to one study, could lead to $800 billion in lost value by 2030, concern about what to do in the sector is understandable.

One of the potential strategies is to convert office buildings to housing. There have been questions about how effective this could be, given issues of building layout and the number of adjustments necessary to enable habitability.

A new National Bureau of Economic Research working paper (meaning not yet peer reviewed) from researchers at New York University and Columbia Business School, with support from the Brookings Institution, suggests “a set of criteria to identify commercial office properties that are physically suitable for conversion, yielding about 11% of all office buildings across the U.S.” The conversion specifically was to “green apartments.”

The paper’s authors were Arpit Gupta, an associate professor of finance at New York University; Candy Martinez, a doctoral student in finance at Columbia Business School; and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, a professor of real estate at Columbia Business School.

The researchers noted the “triple forces of rising interest rates, the emergence of remote work, and environmental taxes” and estimated that a building with a pre-pandemic valuation of $100 million would likely have a present value of $38.9 million, a drop of 61% loss of value.

The paper shows a “pro-forma real estate model that identifies parameters under which these conversions are financially viable” as well as “several policy levers available to federal, state, and local governments that could accelerate the conversion, and that may be necessary should policymakers desire the creation of affordable housing.”

The researchers found potential candidates through a six-step process:

1. Focus on locations in a city where the negative pressures on office are strongest but where there are “strong transportation amenities.”
2. Consider only buildings constructed before 1990 because often “historic buildings tend to be cheaper, have smaller floor plates, and are more charming, all of which increases their conversion appeal.”
3. The model works with A-, B, and C buildings that are underused as many tenant companies have employed a flight-to-quality approach toward leased real estate.
4. Require buildings to have at least 25,000 square feet in size to ensure enough economies of scale for conversion.
5. Eliminate buildings with a distance from windows to core of more than 60 feet to enable enough light and air circulation as well as room for enough plumbing.
6. Eliminate buildings with no or few long-term leases left.

The top five metro areas with the highest number of potential conversions were New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island (634 buildings, 68.4 million gross square feet); San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont (358, 21.2 million); Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana (254, 16.2 million); Washington-Arlington-Alexandria (155, 11.6 million); and Chicago-Naperville-Joliet (113, 14.0 million).

The researchers then showed a pro-forma for a 212,500 square foot office building that went from $4.12 per square foot rent pre-pandemic to $3.50 post-pandemic. After conversion, with a usable 175,000 square feet, and hard and soft costs of $80 million, plus $10 million in green improvements, given 30 months to design and 18 months to lease up, market rate apartments would command $8 per square foot for a 2033 NOI of $11.5 million (up from $3 million post-pandemic), a net present value in 2022 of $4.1 million, and a 2022 IRR of 16.8%. For affordable apartments, the costs are the same, rent would be $6.84 per square foot, 2033 NOI of $9.2 million, 2022 NPV of -$8.6 million, and a 2022 IRR of 12.1%.

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This article is part of our Design special section about making the environment a creative partner in the design of beautiful homes.

Eleven years ago, Sally Liu, a water-resources engineer, and her husband Bay Chang, then a senior research scientist for Google, bought a 0.84-acre lot for $2.675 million in suburban Hillsborough, Calif. Avid environmentalists in their mid-40s with two young sons, they set out to build something different from the neighborhood’s overblown mansions and closer to their hearts: a green energy home.

“I really did not want a large house next to a lawn,” said Ms. Liu, who is now 56 and advises for the Nature Conservancy.

The couple hired Aidlin Darling Design, a San Francisco firm, to build what the architects would come to call the “House of Earth and Sky.” Joshua Aidlin and Peter Larsen, the principals on the project, had ample experience with LEED, an evolving national standard for green buildings. And the couple wanted, and received, no less than the highest of the four LEED certifications: platinum.

“Sally and Bay had been to a friend’s rammed-earth home, and had fallen in love with the material,” Mr. Larsen recalled, referring to the compacted soil used in ancient constructions and many contemporary, sustainable ones. Ms. Liu’s desire for a drought-resistant garden was another prominent theme.

Within a week, the owners had a working model. Its ecological strategies for a durable, all-electric home were incorporated in a sculptural composition of rammed earth and glass walls, clerestory windows and blackened wood cladding, all customized for the partially sloped site.

“It was a diagram for sustainability,” Mr. Aidlin said. “The forms all had a function.” But before their clients settled on the version they built in 2015, the architects added Ron Lutsko, a landscape architect, and Gary Hutton, an interior designer, to the creative team.

Intended for intergenerational living — in itself a green idea — the 7,477-square-foot enclave (including basement) is not monolithic. It has three public and private zones linked by insulated glass-walled walkways shaded by steel trellises or roof overhangs. The sections are laid out in a U shape around a central limestone courtyard dotted with garden beds and block-like stone benches where the family and friends can gather.

“We wanted an abundant connection to the outdoors from every space,” Mr. Aidlin said. So the entire light-filled indoor-outdoor composition sits at the center of a garden.

If you are a guest, you can climb from the car court at street level, through an entry garden of native grasses and up a flight of stairs to the formal front door. Turning right from the foyer takes you into Mr. Chang’s sanctum, where he keeps his prized board game collection. Turning left leads to a 65-foot long, open-plan sequence of living spaces on the north edge of the courtyard. This 1,000-square-foot area is lit with LED pendants and finished with nontoxic or low-VOC materials that have the downside, Ms. Liu noted, of degrading with powerful sunlight. (Though automated blinds have reduced the impact, the stained floors have faded to natural walnut.)

Beyond the public space is a private area containing bedrooms and gardens for the couple and their sons, who are now adults. A glass-walled bridge that borders a reflecting pond links the living/bedroom wing to a poolside pavilion on the south side of the central courtyard. The pavilion contains a family room and guest spaces for the couple’s parents.

The modern design inconspicuously incorporates water- and energy-conservation features. Retractable steel-and-glass doors open onto the courtyard from different sides of the house, offering a sleek visual contrast to the exterior walls and allowing for cross ventilation.

Those beautifully striated 18-inch-thick walls, made of compacted soil gathered from the site, were engineered by David Easton, an inventor in Napa, Calif., who concocted the blend of sand, earth and Portland cement. They are low-maintenance and rot-resistant, and their thermal mass shields the interiors from outdoor temperature fluctuations. This feature minimizes the use of hydronic heating and cooling systems embedded in the wood-covered concrete floors inside.

Asymmetrical “butterfly” roofs rest lightly above the living area and combined pool and guesthouse. Their wide wings angle upward so that out-of-sight arrays of photovoltaic solar panels absorb maximum sunlight that is converted to electricity and sent to the grid. The house produces and stores enough energy to power all needs, though a Tesla battery, to be used during storm-related blackouts, is still to come.

The V-shaped roofs double as rain collectors and drain into a 5,000-gallon underground cistern that preserves runoff for nonpotable purposes like irrigation. A 500-gallon cistern under the pool deck likewise collects used household water for the gardens, which Mr. Lutsko populated with native live oaks and with species he jokingly calls “honorary natives,” like Mediterranean Jerusalem sage and olive trees.

Because the site slopes up from the car court, the architects were able to excavate a subterranean floor for a garage, family entrance, wine cellar, utility rooms and the base of a rectangular concrete tower three stories tall.

The tower is just wide enough to contain a steel spiral staircase that rises past the living rooms on the main level, up to a third-story crow’s nest. The slender tower is not an architectural conceit, but a passive stack effect cooling chimney with a motorized window at the top to ventilate the interiors when they get hot and simultaneously pull cooler air up from the basement.

“It could have been automated but Sally and Bay did not mind being active users,” Mr. Larsen said.

Several years later, the combination of passive- and engineered-solar power seems to work as planned. At first, not fully trusting the energy systems they had invested in, Ms. Liu monitored everything closely. “I am an engineer who loves spreadsheets,” she said. “The goal was to be net-zero energy, and I was relieved the solar numbers met the goal.” That is partly because with many days in the 80s, the pool rarely requires heating.

Ms. Liu can now divert more of her attention to her other environmental causes, which she tends from a home office. The room’s raised floor gives her views of the gardens even from her desk.

“It all looks natural. I can see a ‘meadow’ and the hills on one side. In the other direction, I look at a ‘forest’ of trees,” she said. “And this wonderful house is simply a conservation cipher for others to decode.”

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With the introduction of more climate protection regulations, ClimateTech companies can more easily get the green light for their innovative products and solutions. We are entering an era of complete modernization of HVAC systems (heating, ventilation and air conditioning).

The North American market for HVAC systems was valued at nearly $44 billion in 2022, and it is projected Grow to over $62 billion by 2029 at a compound annual growth rate of 5.2%. Demand will remain strong due to climate change with its extreme temperatures, the growing real estate market and companies’ efforts to reduce costs through energy-efficient appliances. If you are building an HVAC business, now is the time. Here are just a few market niches that you may be able to fill.

Refrigerants need to be replaced

The refrigerants currently used are harmful to the environment. Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are potent greenhouse gases used in refrigeration and air conditioning that are thousands of times more harmful than carbon dioxide. The good news for the HVAC industry is that a global agreement dictates that all refrigerants with GWP – the global warming potential – must be replaced by 2030, a very ambitious target.

HFCs are detrimental to the ozone layer and are considered the main contributors to global warming. And they are used by every air conditioner manufacturer. In the future, companies will have to adapt to new requirements.

In October 2022, President Joe Biden signed an international agreement committing the US and more than 130 nations to reduce the production and use of HFCs by 85% over the next 14 years. According to scientists, the measure will help at least partially mitigate the upcoming increase in global temperatures.

It’s time to save energy and costs

Existing HVAC systems consume too much energy and, what is worse, they work non-stop. I’m a big advocate of cost efficiency and the right insulation process could help many companies and manufacturing facilities. I recently visited a factory that was using an HVAC system that I helped develop. But they had a cavity in the wall through which air could easily flow, so they lost a lot of energy. Basically, the cooling process never stopped.

You cannot save energy by leaving the air conditioner on all day. HVAC systems are not designed to work 24/7 – they should not run more than 8 hours a day. The same goes for our homes and office buildings, as well as the data centers of big tech companies like Google and Apple.

In New York, most greenhouse gas emissions come from city buildings, as many of them are old. In Arizona and Texas, where temperatures reach over 100°F, the need for energy savings is enormous. It opens up a window of opportunity for new business areas, for example for insulating materials.

According to the current status reportsThe demand for energy efficient solutions in buildings will fuel the growth of the insulation market, which is expected to reach US$42.5 billion in 2029.

Alternative energy HVAC solutions

The resources of our planet are not unlimited. According to some estimates, we will run out of fossil fuels this century. Electricity prices will also rise due to the increasing load on the electricity grid. The development of entirely new alternative energy based HVAC systems is critical for both business and the planet.

We also need to lower the cost of food production: most agribusinesses use technology that leaves a large carbon footprint. New HVAC systems could use solar power, ice-powered air conditioners, geothermal heat pumps, and possibly technologies we haven’t developed yet. This is all a great opportunity for entrepreneurs looking for their “next big thing” and a market with potential for exponential growth.

Latiful Kabir is an advanced manufacturing engineer and HVAC (heating, ventilation and air conditioning) expert based in Clarksville, Tennessee.

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It has been said that while mining may not be everything, nothing else would be possible without it. Critical resources have come to be used as shorthand to mark human progress; from the Stone Age, to the Bronze Age, to the Iron Age, to the Information Age. When technology reached a point where the smelting of steel became widespread, economies grew rapidly and humanity shifted from the prehistoric era to the modern. Interestingly large parts of the artisanal mining sector have never moved much beyond these pre-modern advancements. Therefore a great deal of the minerals and metals that make the most sophisticated technologies possible today, are still obtained in a way that would not be unrecognizable to a miner from thousands of years ago.

Control over resources and dominance of their trade have been important to the economic foundations of societies since the beginning of human civilization. Whether they were precious resources like gold, diamonds or other precious gems or more critically strategic resources; like obsidian, iron and copper. Control over their dominion was almost always an essential ingredient for civilizational success. The Maya and Inca in the Americas developed vast trading networks and riches, which the Spanish conquistadors were so keen to dominate and plunder upon discovery.  The medieval southern African kingdom of Mapungbwe grew into a wealthy city-state, trading mineral resources and other goods throughout the continent and as far away as Arabia, India, and China from the 10th-14th century AD.(1)

Later resource booms feverishly lifted cities and whole regions from obscurity to prominence, sometimes in a matter of months. San Francisco’s population was less than 500 in 1847, but by the end of 1849 following reports of the gold strike at Sutter’s Mill it had swelled to near 25,000. Critical minerals have always played a role in these booms, and their overexploitation, or a sudden crash in value can cause harsh bust cycles to quickly follow. Leaving newly minted communities just as suddenly desolate, abandoned ghost towns, again in the span of mere months. It can be a head spinning whirlwind, as towns like Bodie, CA will attest. A place where people seemingly just up and left in a hurry, mid-meal or on a whim one day, without even bothering to pack. 

Black Gold

Gold still holds quite a bit of allure and more value than ever but strategically over time its importance has waned. With the advent of the automobile age and a shift away from gold standards, oil quickly vaulted to the top of the list of commodities considered most critical. Wildcatters, first in Pennsylvania then later in Texas, staked everything on risky ventures and a freewheeling, gambler’s mentality held sway. Wars were waged in pursuit of oil or over its access. Somewhere between a quarter and a half of all interstate conflicts since 1973 can be connected to oil, and secure supply chains have come to be considered crucial for national survival. Oil is ostensibly the lifeblood of any modern economy. It was even the US oil embargo on Japan that likely presaged their attack on Pearl Harbor. Access to oil is still an essential fixture of national security and drives policy decisions in capitals the world over. However, with the world on the cusp of an unavoidable and well overdue shift toward renewable energy, the balance of power is moving away from hydrocarbons and towards a new set of critical minerals. Necessary for semiconductors and microchips, satellites and lasers, and critical in every way for computing and data storage, there is no future without critical minerals. If oil is the blood that keeps an economy pumping, critical minerals will be the air it breathes going forward. A question worth pondering is, will the stakes over these newly critical resources be as high and become as contentious as past conflagrations over oil have proven to be?(2)

Green Gold

Everyone is generally familiar with the minerals that have powered the world since the onset of the industrial revolution, first coal and oil and more lately nuclear and natural gas. These are ubiquitous the world over, known to be reliable sources of concentrated energy and basically understood, as far as impacts and sustainability are concerned. Less understood are the new class of critical minerals that have gained importance in the last 30-40 years. As the ICT revolution accelerates and the world pivots towards green economies, these unsung minerals have almost invisibly become the crux-point in global commerce and a functioning of modern society. So many of the devices and conveniences taken for granted rely on these minerals. So what are they exactly and what challenges are posed in obtaining ample supplies of each?

Not so Rare Earths

While the term ‘rare earths’ is often misconstrued by many to mean the elements themselves are lacking in abundance, they are not actually all that rare and can be found in great quantities in many places around the world. They are just rarely mined, and not easy to process. Processing is highly energy and water intensive and quite damaging to the environment in the long term.   

Rare earth elements or REEs are a grouping of 17 minerals that occur together in deposits and are therefore mined in conjunction. Four of the most important of these for the green energy transition are neodymium, dysprosium, praseodymium and terbium. China not only dominates the processing of these elements into usable forms, but in some cases like dysprosium 100% of the supply is sourced from China. China also contains substantial REE deposits of its own. In 2010 they controlled approximately 95% of the market in REEs, that is down to somewhere around 60% today, as more production has come online in Australia and elsewhere. The Mountain Pass Mine in California was reactivated in 2018 and is the only current REE mine in the US, providing about 15% of global REE supplies, but it still relies wholly on China to process what it digs out of the ground.

China currently controls 90% of the processing capacity for light REEs and 100% of the processing capacity for heavy REEs. Processing is notoriously dirty, as the byproducts are radioactive tailings, and a lot of them since so much ore must be refined to produce significant quantities of the various minerals. One other concern is the price fluctuations of the various minerals in the group. Since they are mined in conjunction, spikes in demand in a few may not necessarily equate to higher profits for mine operators if prices for others remain low, a leveling out effect can happen since they don’t all rise or fall in tandem.

Some 20 new REEs projects in the next few years should begin operations in the US, Canada and Australia which will put further downward pressure on prices as more midstream production capacity opens up. There is also some interesting potential to process coal waste in a way that allows efficient and more environmentally friendly extraction and processing of REEs, recycling what’s now just a toxic byproduct of coal mining and turning it into usable REEs.(7-8,10-16,30)

Copper Still King

Copper is surely much more familiar to the non-geologists out there, but its criticality is likely underestimated. It is still a superior and irreplaceable element, prized for its electrical conductivity and malleability. With a long history of being mined and active sites with ample deposits in Peru, Chile, China, the DRC, Zambia, Australia and the United States there wouldn’t, on the surface, appear to be any supply chain problems. Dig deeper though and it becomes apparent that given the upward trajectory of demand and the downward trajectory of productivity, due to the declining quality of the ore and the increasing difficulty in accessing what is available, there could be trouble ahead. China leads by far in both refining and demand for copper, accounting for around 50% of both. Supplies seem strong based on current projections but given the long lead time for projects and the lack of any new mines being planned beyond the late 2020s, concerns exist about long term supply outlooks. Current output meets current demands, but as these supplies inevitably shrink due to productivity loss, and with demand only expected to grow exponentially, finding new sources of ore is imperative or else supply shortages may arise. There’s also the matter of how water intensive copper mining happens to be, coupled with the harsh reality that most deposits are found in arid and already water stressed areas.(16-17,30)

Conflict Cobalt

Cobalt is one of the most crucial elements going forward as the world turns towards renewable energy. It is actually retrieved as a by-product of copper and nickel mining. Their fates are therefore inextricably linked. Currently close to 70% of cobalt is mined in one country, the Democratic Republic of Congo or DRC. A major component of electric vehicle batteries, and with demand for it set to skyrocket, possibly by as much as 40x in the next 20 years, secure supply chains will be essential for any successful green transition. The DRC is a difficult case, seemingly beset by every intractable issue a country could face and a classic reminder of the ‘resource curse’. Facing conflicts both internally and externally, climate threats, predatory business partners, corrupt government officials and a massive land area that is 1/4th the size of the US with very little internal infrastructure. It is a difficult place to navigate in all respects, so the DRC is an unlikely focal point for so much of the globe’s future success to hinge, but the world will depend on it. Artisanal mining accounts for a great deal of the current cobalt supply, around 20% by official metrics, but the unknown-unknowns of the Congo are legendary, so any number is a guess at best. A pair of large multinational companies do the rest of the mining, one Swiss and one Chinese. Artisanal mining or ASM presents many challenges, child labor is rife, environmental standards are nonexistent, safety is an afterthought, and infiltration by transnational crime organizations is rampant. It’s also often the best or only economic opportunity for isolated communities and industrious individuals. Given the taint associated with ASM, many companies rightfully steer clear of supply chains that originated in Congo (or at least make a claim to). Given the increasing reliance on ever rarer supplies though, this isn’t a long term viability. It’s likely impossible to declare, even now, with any true confidence that minerals from the Congo, minerals surely in some part mined by child labor, aren’t already deeply embedded in supply chains. Most experts believe some part of every phone, computer, electric car, etc has at least some minerals that would be considered ‘conflict’ as a major component. Blood diamonds are high in the public imagination but blood smartphones or laptops or EVs not so much.(29-30,16-17)

Double Nickel on a Dime

Nickel is another mineral concentrated in particular geographic regions, making supply chains potentially unreliable. Indonesia and the Philippines currently represent 45% of the world’s supply. Used mainly in stainless steel production but also increasingly a major component of electrical vehicle batteries, it’s also a key source of cobalt. Indonesia has shaken up the supply chain the last few years with its sudden ban on exports of raw ore at the beginning of 2020, two years earlier than previously announced. This set in motion a scramble to set up processing plants within Indonesia in order to maintain uninterrupted flows for China’s voracious steel industry.

Indonesia had tried a similar plan in 2017 but had to relent due to inadequate smelter capacity, as soon as enough operators became operational the ban was swiftly put back in place, to the seeming surprise of commodity markets. Successfully pulling in billions in new foreign capital, Indonesia sparked consternation from buyers but ultimately capitulation, as there are not any better options than meeting their stipulations. They’ve also begun to implement export taxes on various types of processed nickel as well, in an effort to further expand their industrial base and revenues. Their current control over nickel allows them this leeway, since alternatives to their supply are nonexistent. Diversifying this supply chain in the long term is an important step, but as it stands no projects are on the horizon outside of Indonesia, so for now they will remain the only nickel game in town.(30,33-36)

Lithium Nirvana

Nicknamed ‘white gold’, lithium’s prospects have never looked better as it has the highest demand among any of the critical minerals. Prices are up over 700% since the beginning of 2021. The key component in the efficient lithium-ion battery revolution that has truly changed the world. Making everything from the original iPod possible to the latest Tesla models so fast. Chile and Australia currently have the most active lithium mining sectors and China once again dominates the processing sector, handling about 75% of the total and over 80% of a particular high-end type that is most coveted by battery makers, while also hosting significant reserves of their own. The US has one functioning mine right now, in Silver Peak, NV but reserves are thought to be plentiful. Demand is being met currently but looking ahead beyond 2030 it’s likely given the emissions targets being set, and the amount of electric vehicle adoption necessary to get there, supply compared to demand will get much tighter in the medium to long term.(21,30-32,37-39)                                         

The Middle Kingdom’s Ground

China has many advantages making it possible for it to maintain dominance of the whole spectrum of critical mineral supply chains, from production to processing. The country itself is blessed with an abundant supply of various minerals. What it lacks in domestic oil potential it more than makes up for with access to the whole gamut of critical minerals. Lax regulations and government incentives allow processing to be done far more cheaply than anywhere else. Not only are domestic sources abundant, but China has also aggressively pursued mining opportunities in many corners of the globe whether in Africa or Australia, Indonesia or South America. Unafraid to source from regions and countries that most Western corporations don’t take a risk on, due to the prevalence of conflict, corruption and unregulated ASM mining, which makes them no-go zones legally.  Chinese dominance is no accident, it has been a concerted effort, arching over many decades of development policy. As far back as 1975 China had a serious state policy in place regarding critical minerals.(10-12,14-17) 

               It was in 1975 that China founded the National Rare Earth Development and Application Leading Group or simply the RE office. Recognizing the national importance of these elements to future economic development, an aggressive multi-pronged approach was instituted to guide China’s nascent industrial policy and eventual expansion into a global behemoth. The first years offered support to the infant-industry, to help operators gain a foothold in global value chains and to inject much needed cash into the country’s economy. Exports were encouraged and export-tax reimbursements were available to rare earth producers, Japan and the US were both early customers. This led to a doubling in production from 1985-1990. The late 80s and early 90s saw a shift in priorities and policies in the West and Japan, which led to less processing capacity globally and more concentration within China. Concerns over environmental degradation and radioactive runoff were high in Europe and elsewhere. Japan set about offshoring its processing to China as well, in a move to gain more steady access to supplies and cheaper overall production costs due to subsidies, while also sparing its own environment. At this stage the Chinese policy was working incredibly well, an abundance of supplies and processing and lack of oversight led to a steady drop in prices. Concern began to grow as time went on over illegally mined elements entering the supply chain though, as these eroded prices ever further. Producers in China would eventually engage in collusion in the early 90s to help stabilize prices.(10-12, 14-17)

               At this point in the early 90s the strategic value of the minerals began to be reconsidered, and recognized as more than just a source of foreign capital for China. Foreign investment in upstream production started to be scrutinized and disallowed in most cases, meanwhile investment in downstream production was still actively encouraged. Previously granted mining licenses were revoked, the minerals were officially designated as critical to national security and strict export controls were put in place. This was meant to help tamp down what was considered over investment in the mining sector and over supply, but considering the amount of illegal mining this only went so far as a preventative measure. As growth overall in China began to skyrocket in the 90s central planners foresaw issues with their earlier rare earth strategy. Environmental damage, long term sustainability and local impacts were already on their radar, as the previous rush for economic development at any cost had caused quite a bit of unchecked exploitation and environmental damage. Foreign investments in mining were further restricted throughout the 90s, stricter production quotas implemented and export quotas and taxes were introduced. This led to major advantages for processors in China, who now had access to cheaper raw materials, which then encouraged foreign firms to shift even more processing to China. At this point close to 60% of mined rare earth material came out of China, around this same time they were admitted to the WTO, further strengthening ties to global supply chains.(10-12, 14-17)

The late 90s and early 2000s saw increased emphasis on export quotas to rein in illegal suppliers and stricter production quotas in a complicated, firm by firm, region by region policy. This pushed consolidation in the industry and led to greater state control over time. Foreign investments were even further curtailed in mining and processing, as concerns over the environment and over-exploitation of the non-renewable resources gained attention, from both regional authorities and locals on the ground, who voiced concerns over rampant pollution.

Illegal mining also continued to plague Chinese regulators. The success of prior policies actually incentivized illegal miners to continue unabated since prices increased dramatically. Estimates vary over the size and impact of illegal mining, and given the opaque nature of Chinese statistics and the obfuscation inherent to all illegal enterprises, nailing down exact figures is impossible. What is known is that it is not an insignificant source of rare earth elements in China. Some put the number at 25-40% of total national output prior to 2013, coming from illegal sources and that’s from the leader by far in global output. As stricter reforms were enacted some claim that number fell below 20% after 2014 but others say illegal sources still constituted over 50% of the supply chain post-2017. As an example of how blatant this illegal supply was, reported imports of REE from China by various countries, like Japan, South Korea and the United States were consistently higher than official Chinese export quotas for years at a time. 2009 was actually the only year where the reported export/import numbers aligned worldwide and that was amidst a global financial meltdown and a sharp decline in commodity demand and prices. In any case, China controlled around 97% of the REE markets in 2010, whether or not all sources from the country were accounted for, or all its policies were successful.

In 2010 export quotas were lowered significantly causing a spike in prices that left many international customers of China unable to afford the minerals crucial to their production. China’s two month ban on exports of rare earths to Japan over a dispute involving a fishing boat captain near the Senkaku Islands the same year, was meant as a shot across the bow at a regional competitor, but it was perhaps too effective. In the end it seemed to serve as a wake-up call to every country with regards to the implications of Chinese dominance of this critical sector. In some ways this move jump started the global race for rare earths and other critical minerals. Demand for smartphones exploded in this era too and the electric vehicle industry also began in earnest. Two cases were brought before the WTO over China’s export restrictions around this time, and in both cases the challenging parties prevailed, a new era of competition was certainly underway.(10-11, 14-17)

The Beautiful Country’s Landscape

Starting in 2018 the United States began compiling a list of commodities considered critically important to national security.  According to Tanya Trujillo, Assistant Secretary of the Interior for Water and Science, “Critical minerals play a significant role in our national security, economy, renewable energy development and infrastructure.”

Updated yearly the list, as of 2022, contains over 50 minerals and metals. From the familiar like aluminum, graphite, lithium, platinum, and tin. To the more obscure and less readily available like cobalt, cesium, dysprosium, and all the so-called rare earths. There is only one active rare earth mine in the US, at Mountain Pass, CA and it was only brought back online in 2018. It is still working towards being able to process what it mines though, with most all processing for rare earths done overseas. All of Mountain Pass’ output so far has gone to China for final processing and the US obtains around 78% of its rare earths from China currently. The 50 odd minerals deemed most critical have a wide variety of uses; nuclear power, missile guidance, fiber optics, LED/LCD screens, solar cells, batteries of all kinds, magnets and steel production, are all impossible without stable and consistent supply chains of these elements.(3-4)

               Biden’s Executive Order no. 14017 was released early in his term and put a clear emphasis on securing the US supply chain for critical minerals and drastically increasing both mining and processing in the country. His order built upon others from prior administrations and is among a basket of proposals to build out a reliable US-based supply chain. Covid-19 exposed vulnerabilities to an over-reliance on extended supply chains and just-in-time shipping. Especially with regards to such essential base minerals. While they are basically invisible, without them none of the modern amenities we take for granted like smartphones, electric vehicles, powerful computers, widespread internet connectivity or even electricity would be possible. The recently released National Security Strategy may not have explicitly mentioned mining and minerals and their fundamental importance, but reading between the lines most of the goals and strategies revolve in some way around ready access to them. One recent example of this obvious criticality was the temporary halting of F-35 production due to concerns over a magnet alloy sourced from China.(5-9,27)

               US policymakers want to reformulate industrial policy and jump start a mining boom within its borders, but high level thinking and big plans don’t often translate to practical solutions. China’s head start has allowed it to build out all the necessary infrastructure and tweak policy as they’ve gone along, making it ever more effective and precise. The US is a tortoise joining the race late, with a Chinese hare that has a huge head start. While the US is most certainly starting from far behind it can’t allow this factor to cause it to be overly strident or make imprudent plans. At the same time the US does need to start running, since it already missed the starting gun, relying solely on tripping China as a way to catch up is not a sensible strategy.

               Recent legislation such as the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPs Act and use of the Defense Production Act by the Pentagon, squarely target a new brand of industrial policy for the United States.. Targeting something, versus actually hitting the mark though, are two very different things. It takes steady effort and careful aim to make the right impact. The US may want to drastically diversify supply chains for critical minerals but there’s several hurdles standing in the way.

First there’s the matter of the outdated mining laws which were drafted 150 years ago, so obviously fail to factor in modern needs or technologies. There’s also the exceptionally long lead time for mining projects that needs to be considered. Plans of this magnitude, with so much upfront investment ($10s of billions) and scale of work (years of assessments and approvals before ground can be broken), take well over a decade to bring fully online. Delays in permitting in the US can add years to already years-long initiatives and the pendulum swing of political priorities make venturing into a mining project that much more risky and costly in the US. While quotidian corruption may not be the issue it is in other countries, operators in the US still face a monumental morass of red tape before ever breaking ground. Ensuring environmental responsibility obviously needs to remain a top priority but interminable delays can’t be allowed to stymie such a critical industry. More focus should be put on shovel-ready projects, many of the proposals being put forth are still for pilot or demonstration programs.

There is however positive progress being made on various fronts and the significant incentives being offered appear to already be paying dividends. Nearly $7 billion is being invested to increase battery production within the US. With companies like MP Materials being one of the beneficiaries. Having recently reported a doubling in earnings and making ambitious plans to onshore all processing of REE mined at Mountain Pass, to a California plant by the end of 2022. The company is also about to finish a magnet factory in Texas as well. Other mines and processing facilities are in the works, with more lithium mines planned in Nevada, North Carolina and Imperial County, California and processing plants in the works in Arizona, Minnesota and Michigan. Apple and Tesla have also announced plans to onshore much of their supply chains to the US in coming years. The same thing is happening with semiconductors with several large manufacturing facilities in the works in Ohio and other parts of the Midwest. All of these will need consistent and secure access to dozens of critical minerals.(5,21-25,31,37,40)

Recycling is another area the US is emphasizing. It’s possible to keep the critical minerals we already do have, in our pockets or castoff in closets and drawers, out of landfills and continue to reuse them for decades to come. On that same front, stockpiling of strategic minerals for lean times and to counter wild market dynamics is another pillar of the Biden plan.(22,28)

Another comparative advantage the US has is its strong network of allies and trading partners. The Pentagon has been pushing partnerships with Australia and the United Kingdom to develop more processing capacity to diversify supply chains with mixed success. It has also called on Australia to review foreign (i.e. Chinese) investment in its mining sector, which it has recently vowed to do. One concern the US has beyond China’s domestic dominance of the critical mineral supply chain, is all the various ownership stakes and mineral rights it has acquired globally. Chinese companies often have significant stakes in overseas mining and processing ventures, whether in Africa, Australia, South America or Indonesia. This complicates matters with the new laws requiring Chinese-free supply chains. Entanglement is such and supplies of certain minerals are so concentrated geographically, that total decoupling is all but impossible. This cuts both ways though, even with China’s overall dominance there are critical facets of the industry that they don’t control, but still rely upon, so export bans as a weapon won’t work for either side except as a way to shoot yourself in the foot.(43-45,25-29)

US partnerships in the EU and elsewhere, with both governments and corporations, can prove to be fruitful, yet also need to be continually nurtured. France is already expressing concerns over Biden’s new industrial policy, likening it to the Chinese one that led to their early lead, but seemingly that is exactly the point. Biden’s new policies have even raised the ire of Chinese commentators, who criticized Canada for doing the “bidding” of the US (again) in an ironic turnabout.(20,46)

On the sidelines of the recent G-20 meetings in Indonesia it appears that many of the concerns surrounding critical minerals were addressed. Leaders grappled with the implications of Biden’s legislative victories over the summer that brought to life his nascent industrial policy. The Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) was touted as part of a global plan to tackle climate change and meet Sustainable Development Goals. Some projects under its rubric include moves towards more efficient grids, sustainable mining projects, and increasing digital access and financing for SMEs in the developing world.(41)

The EU, as a bloc, needs to reckon with its own divisions and come to a consensus on a path forward to maintain critical mineral supplies. The newly hawkish attitude from Washington towards Beijing has certainly raised eyebrows in Germany. National security concerns from the US side have forced many companies that export to the US market to make hard and often expensive choices, since the Chinese market is also a critical one for them as well. Some are resorting to siloing of their supply chains to serve both simultaneously, but this is costly and leaves SMEs at a supreme disadvantage, margins are often thin so building out multiple supply chains isn’t an option for many companies. SMEs are the backbone of the German and therefore EU as a whole’s economy, so this figures into the political calculus in Berlin and Brussels. Keeping their own industrial bases humming and people employed is of the utmost concern. There’s also a lot of rightful skepticism regarding US reliability, as many companies and governments who had been solid partners got burned badly by the Trump administration’s abnormal geopolitical gyrations. Questions about the outcome of the 2024 US election and the direction it will take weighs heavily on decision makers and potential partners, leaving many no choice but to hedge their bets with China, just in case.

On the Ground

               China’s overwhelming success with critical minerals and their commanding lead as both a global supplier and consumer would not be possible without large amounts of overseas investments in infrastructure and aggressive pursuit of new supplies near and far. While being a top down approach on the one hand, on the other it unleashed a torrent of chaotic and sometimes overlapping/unproductive projects, so waste was unavoidable. Western investors tend to approach large-scale investments like mines quite cautiously and then respond quickly to market conditions. Commodity markets by their nature are subject to wild fluctuations, so counting on consistent returns is just not possible, but try telling that to shareholders. The Chinese investment approach to mineral extraction differs in that when they come to town, they are in it for the long haul. Domestic demand is such in China that even with a downturn in price they still need raw materials, so they will continue operations through a recession or sudden swing in a particular mineral’s price. Whereas Western companies will pull back on production or shut down altogether if the market is not in their favor. This whipsaw retrenchment approach, tied to market swings, is hard on the local labor force. Chinese mines on the other hand will keep operating so their local employees stay employed.(17)

A lack of oversight and more independence allows Chinese operators to be more flexible with local demands as well. A Swiss manager in Africa, for instance, is held in check by a board, obligations to shareholders, and a strong regulatory regime at home, so they just cannot possibly get done what a Chinese manager freed from all these strictures can. Chinese brokers in Africa are also open to buying artisanally mined minerals and then just plugging them into the supply chain. Western companies are bending over backwards to make sure their supply chains don’t even come close to touching these minerals, at least not while they are in the problem countries. Run the same ore through a few midstream processors and muddle its origins, thereby making it impossible to tell what minerals are from where, and with enough inured blindness no one is the wiser. Chinese mining operators are also being backed by a concerted cyber campaign against competitors. The Australian company Lynas reports battling bot attacks on a daily basis, in what is a new front in back-handed business tactics.(17,19)

In the Ground

Artisanal mining (ASM) and its impacts are difficult territory to navigate, moral quandaries abound and many a philosophical paradox is brought forth to ponder. There’s no doubt that mining of any kind is a dirty and dangerous business. Whether in the best regulated and safest mine, run by the most responsible multinational corporation or not. ASM makes up a major proportion of the economy of some countries and many regions rely almost solely on it. At the same time it can have absolutely devastating effects on communities. Environmental damage goes unchecked and unmitigated, child labor and other forms of exploitation are  rampant, and safety is not of any concern. It is also an inefficient use of resources and can leave viable mining sites unusable in the future due to improper mining practices. The amount of ASM going on currently and the percentage it already makes up of global output, perhaps 25% or more with some minerals, makes it an undeniable reality in any post-carbon world.(17,29,49)

Liminal Spaces & Criminal Cases

Transnational crime is another undeniable fact of the global mineral supply chain that must be considered. Given the amount of artisanal mining, the exploding value of the minerals and the easy obfuscation possible in mineral supply chains, criminal actors are almost certainly already deeply enmeshed. Gold has long been used in money laundering schemes and that has only become more prevalent as prices have spiked in the last two decades. Many of the critical minerals have seen massive spikes in value the last few years, which opens the door to opportunists of all kinds. Private military contractors like Russia’s ‘Wagner’ group are known to be operating in and around artisanal mines in Africa, extracting value and exploiting people in every way possible.

In South America drug smugglers operate brazenly in the mineral supply chain. Through complicated schemes involving shell companies and forged documents, gold is shuffled seamlessly into the global supply chain and cash comes back clean. Cartels are even known to be operating the ubiquitous “We Buy Gold” stores that have cropped up in nearly every town in America since the Great Recession of 2008, turning dirty money into gold and then back into clean money when the gold is resold to processors. Theft of catalytic converters from vehicles is another crimewave sweeping the US that can be connected directly to the demand for critical minerals. There is very little reporting currently on criminal activity in critical mineral supply chains outside China (or inside for that matter), but gangs there have long controlled black markets and illegal mines. To think the same won’t happen in other countries and regions with poor governance and a lack of oversight as the value and scarcity of these minerals continues to increase would be naive.(12,18)

The Race with No End

The framing for the pursuit of minerals is often put into the context of a ‘race’ but that presupposes winners, losers and a finish line. The rush to go green and develop renewable and more efficient sources of energy and ever faster more powerful computers, is just the way forward. The climate connection ties everyone on the globe together, in hopes of a victory or in a shared loss, because the alternative is an untenable planet on which to dwell. The US may be starting late but at least the recognition of the necessity for swift action is now an imperative.

The complexities and interconnections of mineral supply chains and the needs for renewable energy will only increase exponentially going forward. Managing an industrial policy that encompasses so many moving parts, spans all points of the compass, involves highly technical processing at every level, and exceptionally long lead times will not be a simple task. China has a nearly 50 year head start and has been tweaking policy to fit the moment all along. Leapfrogging to play catch-up is not impossible though. As technology improves, rapidly moving forward with the latest advancements and utilizing what the Chinese have learned from decades of policy will give new operators an advantage of sorts. Chinese BRI investments in overseas infrastructure have actually fallen off since 2017, except in the realms of ICT and security/surveillance technology which remain strong. A recent move away from the BRI towards the Global Development Initiative (GDI) and Global Security Initiative (GSI) represent a shift, somewhat, in Chinese policy. What that will mean for investments on the ground and supply chain security overall remains to be seen, their notion of “indivisible security” is very vaguely defined currently. So much capital has been committed and plenty of projects have broken ground already in Africa, Australia, and Indonesia that there will not be a significant shift anytime soon away from a China-led supply chain.(47-48,50)       

For US policymakers and corporations the path forward is clear. Given current deficits in both upstream, midstream and downstream production, building out a resilient ecosystem of raw ore supplies all the way through to finished workable alloys and metals is crucial. Efforts are underway to map US geologic deposits for the various critical minerals to get an idea of how much actually exists within the US. Some projections of global supplies over the next 20-40 years for the most critical minerals seem to indicate there may not be enough of these minerals in existence to even meet future demand. Reliance on technologies yet to be invented is the gamble the globe must make going forward it seems. There are promising experiments ongoing to recover minerals from deposits on the seafloor. It is possible enough minerals exist at the bottom of the ocean to power a planetary transformation into a post-carbon future. There are also some scientific advancements in recycling coal ash waste and using that as a source for critical minerals. Combined with aggressive e-waste recycling programs many of these minerals can be recovered and reused repeatedly, eliminating the need for costly and environmentally damaging mining projects.(16)

In the meantime it behooves the US, and every country for that matter, to develop a realistic plan of action in the face of these facts. Finding more sources of minerals that can be sustainably obtained is one pillar. Another is education; ensuring the engineers, geologists, and chemists needed for this transition exist and are being educated in universities is key. Education of the general public is necessary as well, since many have no idea of the stakes but everyone is a stakeholder now. Developing new sources of ore is important but so is proper management of the known deposits and active mining sites. Locking whole regions and countries out of the value chain due to the presence of artisanally mined minerals is not a sound or even feasible policy. It stymies the people living there unfairly and merely opens the door to illegal mining with no rules or standards whatsoever. The vacuum left in these areas when major multinationals leave, is a void that is quickly filled by militias, criminals, or jihadists. Coherent strategies with realistic outlooks on ASM and its inevitability need to be adopted.

The new US industrial policy is a promising start, it seems as if there is finally recognition from both Democrats and Republicans that ceding the whole space to China is not a workable approach. There was no actual strategy from the West until very recently with regards to critical minerals, other than letting market forces play out and the chips fall where they may. Covid-19 disruptions and China’s recalcitrant stance of late has thrown into sharp relief the need for a diversification of supply chains of all kinds. From advanced microchips to basic medicines, an overreliance on just-in-time shipping and stretched supply chains led to severe shortages.

As the US now shifts towards what looks to be a divided government, with Republicans in control of the House, the question for our partners and allies becomes will the US continue clearly on the path of progress. Or is divisiveness once again going to divert attention away from the true threats facing the country and the world. Debates over the debt ceiling could lead to a long shutdown of the government much like in 1994, this will only serve to further shake the confidence of US allies. Demands for austerity at any cost from the right over deficits and the desire to chalk a win of any sort, could deflate the impact of Biden’s recent legislative victories. While hawkishness against China may be overblown on both sides it does represent the one arena where there is some agreement. Countering a perceived threat and bolstering national security are major parts of the new US industrial policies, whether this can be kept separate from partisan politics remains to be seen. A lot of trust in the sanity of centrist Republicans has evaporated both here in the US and abroad, and no one perceives the extremes of either party as viable. Restoring faith in the US as a reliable partner will take time and demonstrating to potential partners a bipartisan commitment for future endeavors is essential. 

China isn’t immune to uncertainty either, while Xi Jingping coasted into a third term seemingly effortlessly, keeping the trajectory of growth moving ever upwards will increasingly be a challenge. The situation in Hong Kong just prior to the pandemic has not been forgotten. Many Western businesses have been moving on to more friendly and predictable locales in Asia, and millions of Chinese citizens have left or are planning to. The competition for China will therefore be coming from both internal and external forces for the time being. The US may not even need to bother trying to “trip” China in an effort to catch up as it seems to have erected many self-limiting stumbling blocks of its own already.

We are certainly nowhere near the ‘end of history’, as a whole new great game gets underway, this time with more and far bigger players. Yet with the US enacting sweeping industrial policy and widespread recognition of the stiff headwinds the West faces going forward, this could very well be the end for neo-liberalism as an overarching strategy of world order. Especially if China has anything to say about it.

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27~ Trump Administration. “A Federal Strategy to Ensure Secure and Reliable Supplies of Critical Minerals.” commerce.gov, 2020, www.commerce.gov/sites/default/files/2020-01/Critical_Minerals_Strategy_Final.pdf.

28~ Timmer, John. “Toxic Cleanup Technique Can Get More Rare Earth Metals Out of Ores.” Ars Technica, 3 Nov. 2022, https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/11/toxic-cleanup-technique-can-get-more-rare-earth-metals-out-of-ores/

29~ Pecquet, Julian. “US Looks to Africa to Diversify Supply Chain for Critical Minerals.” The Africa Report.com, 10 Oct. 2022, www.theafricareport.com/243847/us-looks-to-africa-to-diversify-supply-chain-for-critical-minerals.

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High-ranking honors awarded Paso Robles, California.-based JUSTIN Vineyards & Winery, the restaurant and its tasting menu made from locally sourced ingredients by the Executive Chef Rachel Hagstrom

PASO ROBLES, California., December 5, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — JUSTIN Vineyards & Winery is proud to announce that The Restaurant at JUSTIN has received a coveted MICHELIN Star – one of the culinary industry’s highest awards – as part of the MICHELIN® 2022 Guide California as well as a MICHELIN Green Star for its sustainability practices. The Restaurant at JUSTIN is one of four restaurants in the United States to have received both a MICHELIN Star and a MICHELIN Green Star. The restaurant in the JUSTIN is run by the executive chef Rachel Hagstrom and shows the ultimate California Food and wine experience featuring dishes made with the freshest local ingredients.

The restaurant at JUSTIN has received a coveted MICHELIN star – one of the culinary industry’s highest awards – as part of the MICHELIN® Guide California 2022, as well as a MICHELIN Green Star for its sustainability practices. Led by Executive Chef Rachel Haggstrom, The Restaurant at JUSTIN is one of four restaurants in the US to have received both a MICHELIN Star and a MICHELIN Green Star.

The signature dining experience at JUSTIN Vineyards and Winery features a 4-course prix fixe menu that exudes understated excellence and the best of California cuisine. Complemented by pairings of JUSTIN’s award-winning wines and stunning vineyard views, the restaurant brings a fine dining experience to the wine country of Paso robes.

A MICHELIN star is awarded to restaurants that offer excellent cuisine based on five universal criteria: quality of ingredients, harmony of flavors, mastery of techniques, the chef’s personality as reflected in their cuisine and consistency throughout menu over time. The MICHELIN Green Star recognizes restaurants that are at the forefront of the industry in terms of their sustainability practices. First unveiled in 2020, the MICHELIN Green Star has been introduced in several editions of the MICHELIN Guide 2021.

“This MICHELIN recognition is incredible testament to the pursuit of excellence we strive for every day,” he said Clarence Chia, Senior Vice President of Marketing, eCommerce and Direct-to-Consumer at JUSTIN Vineyards & Winery. “From our award-winning wines to our sustainability practices to our MICHELIN Star status, we pride ourselves on embodying the JUSTIN mantra ‘extraordinary in every way’ in everything we do. We are incredibly proud of Executive Chef Haggstrom and the entire hospitality team at JUSTIN Vineyards and Winery on this tremendous achievement.”

Currently, 95% of the ingredients on the seasonally changing menu come from either JUSTIN Vineyards and Winery’s 26-acre garden or from local suppliers and farmers throughout the Central Coast, with The Restaurant at JUSTIN being one of the largest buyers at the local Farmers’ Market. The garden houses an orchard with 150 trees, edible flower fields and features exotic fruits, vegetables, herbs and an apiary. all of which provide plenty of ingredients.

“The culinary industry is driven by passion, artistry and creativity with a constant pursuit of perfection. I love to watch every day how ingredients are cultivated in the garden, just a few steps from The Restaurant, to be put on the plate and finally how this dish not only nourishes the human being, but his soul,” said Executive boss Rachel Hagstrom. “To be recognized by MICHELIN for something I love is a dream come true and just surreal. I am truly honored to be among the chefs I consider my heroes and mentors.”

Chef Haggstrom and his team source the “less-than-perfect” produce from local suppliers, save these items from food waste, support the local supply chain and showcase these locally sourced produce in pasta fillings, desserts and beautifully presented dishes.

Established in 1991 when Paso robes While it was still in its infancy and there were no other restaurants within miles, The Restaurant at JUSTIN became a beacon for the community with a long legacy of excellence that followed. Awards include the Wine Spectator’s 2017 Restaurant Award, an award recognizing top restaurants with a great wine program, and 17 consecutive years of receiving the Wine Spectator’s Award of Excellence, recognizing restaurants with a well-chosen wine list from quality producers with a thematic adaptation to the menu in price and style. Most recently, Restaurant at JUSTIN was ranked second for Best Winery Restaurant in USA Today’s 10Best Reader’s Choice Travel Awards 2022 and first in California. The restaurant also received a Gold Award for Sustainability from Elite Traveler in 2022 for its environmental practices.

A CaliforniaBorn in Haggstrom, Executive Chef joined JUSTIN in 2019 and is best known for her elevated farm-to-table cooking style, which is influenced by the state’s abundance of fresh, seasonal produce and allows her a wide range of ingredients California’s Seasons on the plate. She finished her studies California Culinary Academy – Le Cordon Bleu a san francisco and then worked his way through the kitchens of various elite culinary destinations, including The Dining Room, the MICHELIN starred restaurant at the Ritz-Carlton San Francisco, the former Chef’s “Postrio”. Wolfgang PuckAnd Thomas Kellers The three MICHELIN star restaurant The French Laundry. Most recently, Haggstrom served as Executive Chef at Balboa Bay Resort before assuming her current role as Executive Chef at The Restaurant at JUSTIN.

Nestled in the rolling hills of Paso robesThe restaurant at JUSTIN is open for dinner Thursday through Sunday with seating from 6:30am to 6:30pm 8 p.m. Reservations are required and can be made at JUSTINWine.com.

About JUSTIN Vineyards & Winery
located in Paso robesEstablished in 1981, JUSTIN Vineyards & Winery is known for producing world-class wines Bordeaux Grape varieties including the legendary ISOSCELES blend of Cabernet Sauvignon, Cabernet Franc and Merlot. Located at 11680 Chimney Rock Road, the winery has a tasting room, luxury five-star accommodations at the JUST Inn, and a restaurant—making it one of the few Central Coast wineries to offer all three options. In Sept 2018a new, second location, JUSTIN Downtown, has opened and features an expansive wine tasting bar, lounge and full dining room prominently located on the plaza along Downtown City Park in the heart of Paso robes. In addition to its outstanding hospitality, JUSTIN regularly receives top awards around the world and is establishing itself as a leader in the new world of Bordeaux-style winemaking. JUSTIN wines are available everywhere from discerning wine merchants and restaurants The United States, or directly from the winery via JUSTIN’s Tasting Rooms, the online shop or to members of the exclusive wine club of the JUSTIN Wine Society. To learn more about JUSTIN, visit www.justinwine.com.

SOURCE JUSTIN Vineyards & Winery

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