The new bars in San Francisco are not headed downtown.

Liquor license data from the California Department of Alcoholic Beverage Control shows bars and restaurants with full-sale liquor licenses in San Francisco are popping up in different neighborhoods than before. A bar or restaurant must have a full-sale liquor license to sell beer, wine and liquor.

In 2021, the number of liquor licenses obtained by establishments in neighborhoods like Chinatown, the Marina, the Castro/Upper Market and the Inner Richmond all doubled compared to 2019. For example, Chinatown went from no licenses acquired by establishments in 2019 to six in 2021. In contrast, the Financial District and South of Market both saw a 40% decrease in the number of liquor licenses obtained in 2021 compared to 2019. The Financial District alone saw six fewer licenses in 2021 than in 2019.

We compared 2021 to 2019 because there were just 55 licenses obtained by new establishments in 2020 during the period of the strictest lockdowns, compared to 77 in 2019 and 87 in 2021. The state’s liquor license data does not include establishments that acquired a liquor license in 2019 and then subsequently closed, so our estimates are likely slightly underestimating the number of establishments acquiring licenses in 2019.

Between June 2020 and June 2021, only 11 new full-sale liquor licenses were actually distributed throughout the city, according to ABC data. The total number of on-sale licenses is currently capped around 1,050 due to a 1939 law that linked liquor licenses to a county’s population. However, existing licenses are bought and sold among businesses, which changes the geography of the bar scene within San Francisco. These transfers are causing a shift in the density of full-sale licenses in neighborhoods away from downtown.

“Downtown is a dense area of ​​office spaces that used to be the main area where people congregated to work, have lunch, enjoy a cocktail and have dinner meetings,” President and CEO of LiquorLicenseAgents.com Rob De La Torre said. “Since the change of environment has caused more people to work from home in local neighborhoods, the licensed locations that were successful before have lost business and opted to open new locations elsewhere or sell their liquor licenses to new establishments opening in the communities.”

Our analysis shows that prior to the pandemic, the Financial District and South of Market were seeing growth in license numbers. The Financial District added 9 more liquor licenses in 2019 than in 2017 and South of Market also more in 2019 than 2017. With both neighborhoods now trending downward, the data suggests the pandemic has played a role in shifting bars away from downtown San Francisco.

“Licenses go where the customers are,” CEO of Future Bars Group Brian Sheehy said. “And the customers-for the past years- have not been downtown.

However, Sheehy says downtown will see its comeback and soon. He says, although licenses have not come into the Financial District and South of Market in the last few years, things are already beginning to change. With the recent announcement of the end of California’s statewide mask mandate, Sheehy is confident this will help return full-sale liquor licenses to downtown San Francisco.

“Those types of licenses are needed in this part of town, and we are very confident that business is going to come back,” Sheehy said. “It is going to take a few months, but there is massive pent-up demand and we are seeing that, especially over the past week with the word getting out that the mask mandate is going to go away.”

The demand for liquor licenses is also showing up in the market. Prior to the start of the pandemic, liquor licenses in San Francisco county cost anywhere from $250,000 to $280,000. In the fall of 2019, these prices dropped about 30% to $190,000. However, with recent prices coming in anywhere from $220,000 to $250,000, De La Torre is optimistic about what this means moving forward.

Regardless of neighborhood, business owners who want full-sale liquor licenses have the same high price to pay. That is about the only thing they have in common, Sheehy says, as a neighborhood bar and high-traffic downtown bar provides two completely different experiences, though he notes the importance of both. Full-sale liquor licenses are always in demand, he says, leaving the future of neighborhood bars unknown if downtown rebounds as he predicts.

“The limitation on licenses- it frustrates a lot of people. But, I really think it is a system that works and it maintains a good balance. Every corner of San Francisco cannot have a license, and so you need to be a pretty good operator to be able to make it, because of the cost of doing business these days,” Sheehy said. “And of course, you cannot do it without these licenses, which are a very very valuable commodity, and the cost of these licenses is only going to go up as the economy comes back.”

Amy Coval is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: amy.coval@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @amy_coval

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Garima Vyas always wanted to live in a big city. She thought of New York, long the destination for 20-year-olds, but was well aware of the cost and complicated subway lines.

So Vyas chose another metropolis that is increasingly becoming the next best option for young people – Houston.

Vyas, 34, a technician, has lived in Houston since 2013. “I knew I didn’t like New York so this was the next best thing,” said Vyas. “There are a lot of things you want to try when you are younger – you want to try new things. Houston gives you that whether it’s food, people, or dating. And it’s cheap to live in. “

The choices made by Vyas and other members of the millennial generation about where to live have changed the country’s political geography over the past decade. You’ve left New York and California and settled in places where TV sitcoms are less likely with around 20 city dwellers, including Denver, Houston, and Orlando, Florida. Attracted by jobs and overlooked by cultural conveniences, they have helped add new craft breweries, condominiums, and liberal voters to these again-conservative places.

The US Census Bureau is expected to formally account for this change next week by disclosing the number of population shifts in the once-a-decade reassignment of Congressional seats. The sun belt is expected to receive seating at the expense of the states in the north.

In most projections, Texas gets three seats, Florida two, and Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon one each. Seats in Alabama, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, West Virginia and California are expected to be lost.

The moves have reshuffled politics. Once solidly conservative places like Texas have seen ever larger islands of liberalism in their cities, fueled by the migration of younger adults who are democratic. Since 2010, the 20- to 34-year-old population has grown 24% in San Antonio, 22% in Austin, and 19% in Houston. This comes from an Associated Press analysis of the American Community Survey data. In the November elections, two states that have grown rapidly in their largest cities – Arizona and Georgia – turned the Democrats upside down in the presidential contest.

Even if the population increase in Arizona over the past decade is one of the fastest growing states, with 7.1 million inhabitants, especially in the Phoenix area shown here, the increase was not enough to give the state a 10th congressional seat announced by Congress enter Census Bureau Monday April 26, 2021. (AP Photo / Ross D. Franklin)

These demographic winners are almost all in the sun belt, but climate isn’t the only thing they have in common.

“These places are growing not just because they’re warmer, but because that’s where the jobs are and the young people are moving there,” said Ryan Wiechelt, professor of geography at the University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire.

There are other drivers of population growth, such as overseas immigration and births. But as foreign immigration subsided over the decade, and then collapsed during the pandemic, internal relocations have become an increasingly large factor in the country’s reorganization, say demographers.

Places with jobs have long attracted transplants, but that shift was different because house prices in previous employment clusters – such as Boston, New York, and Silicon Valley – rose so much that the cost of living became an increasingly important factor in relocations. said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist for Redfin.

“Since the last real estate crisis, young millennials have had to move to places with really strong job markets,” Fairweather said. “Now, during the pandemic, I think that’s changing – you don’t have to move to San Francisco if you want a job in engineering.”

Many young people still move to traditional destinations like New York and California for careers, experts say. You are now just leaving them relatively quickly and have a wider range of alternative job centers to choose from. “Every year these places attract a lot of young people, but they lose more,” said William Frey, demographer at Brookings Institute, of traditional seaside magnets, joking that his hometown of Washington, DC, “rents” young people.

Instead, places with cheaper housing, growing economies, and recreational facilities have become popular. Colorado was the third most popular place for young adults to move to since 2015. According to Frey’s analysis of early census data, more than 20,000 new young adults were recruited from other countries each year. The state has seen a boom in the past decade as its libertarian lifestyle, outdoor attractions, and growing knowledge-based economy have attracted young people from across the country.

As a result, the Denver skyline is regularly littered with construction cranes. Apartment complexes are created from parking spaces. Because when these tenants have children and want to buy houses, waves of new subdivisions arise in the shadow of the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains.

With most graduate transplants relocated to Denver and the satellite communities, Colorado has grown from a solid Republican state to a competitive swing state to a solid democratic state. It’s a pattern that some policy experts expect could be repeated in other states that import loads of young people, even traditionally conservative Texas.

In this April 23, 2021 photo taken, Sydney Kramer, a graduate student at the University of Colorado, poses for a photo on campus in Boulder, Colorado. Kramer is typical of many newcomers to Colorado. The 23-year-old moved to the university town of Boulder in January to begin studying atmospheric and ocean sciences. She could have stayed in Miami, a natural place for someone who interests her and where she completed her undergraduate degree. But Kramer was depressed by Florida’s anti-science turnaround under the control of the republican state. (AP Photo / David Zalubowski)

Sydney Kramer is typical of many newcomers to Colorado. The 23-year-old moved to the university town of Boulder in January to begin studying atmospheric and ocean sciences. She could have stayed in Miami, a natural place for someone who interests her and where she completed her undergraduate degree. But Kramer was depressed by Florida’s anti-science turnaround under the control of the republican state.

“The government and politics haven’t necessarily caught up there yet,” Kramer said of Florida, noting that state regulations prohibited the use of the term “climate change” in some of the previous governor’s official documents. “Everyone here has a high level of education and is really informed about climate change.”

“This,” she said of Boulder, with its abundance of environmental and forecasting organizations, “is just a great place for my industry.”

The New Jersey native, who didn’t want to grapple with the high rents in New York City, was impressed with the excitement of her new neighbors talking about hiking, camping, and skiing, and the combination of outdoor activities and urban amenities the area has to offer . “It’s a really wonderful place for anything you can get for the cost of living,” she said.

Riccardi reported from Denver and Schneider from Orlando, Florida.

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