The trusty quarterback trending arrow points up for Dak Prescott and down for Josh Allen.

Plus, Brock Purdy is back, people! (Even though he never really went anywhere.) So is Russell Wilson, I think?

And who wouldn’t be excited for some Patrick Mahomes–Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson–Joe Burrow matchups in Week 11?

Here’s my weekly look at how quarterbacks stand using traditional statistics like passer rating, along with advanced metrics like Expected Points Added per dropback, via TruMedia, to provide a number-based outlook of the state of the position.

I’ll also give a sneak peek at the upcoming matchups using EPA per dropback for the quarterbacks and the defenses they will face in Week 11. A warning that there are plenty of unexpected names and question marks throughout that chart.

GO DEEPER

NFL midseason QB EPA rankings: Joe Burrow trending up, Brock Purdy trending down

Nos. 1-8

The San Francisco 49ers passer pulled off the best passer rating of his career in the team’s Week 10 thrashing of the Jacksonville Jaguars. That’s saying something since it’s the third time Purdy produced a passer rating north of 140.0 in 17 NFL starts. Maybe it helped to have Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams back in the lineup.

Prescott is having one of the better stretches in his career. The Dallas Cowboys quarterback led the league in EPA rate (0.33) and passer rating (125.1) during Weeks 6-10 (four games, Dallas had a bye in Week 7). Oddly, he’s done it while being the fourth-most-sacked quarterback in the span (13).

A weird couple of weeks for the Los Angeles Chargers’ Justin Herbert. In Week 9, he yielded the second-worst passer rating (65.4) and fifth-worst EPA rate (-0.20) of his career against the New York Jets. The Chargers won that game. In Week 10, he put up outstanding numbers against the Detroit Lions. Los Angeles lost that one. Herbert’s Week 10 EPA rate was the highest for a losing quarterback this season.

I promise I’m not trying to downplay the success of C.J. Stroud. He’s helping the Houston Texans become a playoff contender. Take Week 9’s awesome performance away for a second. Stroud’s last four games outside of that, Stroud compiled a 0.04 EPA rate and 85.6 passer rating. The most encouraging aspect of that is how those numbers seem to be his floor.

Things are spiraling for the Buffalo Bills’ Allen, and now there’s a new offensive coordinator in Buffalo after Ken Dorsey was ousted this week. Allen’s Week 10 EPA rate in the loss to the Denver Broncos was his worst since Week 14 in 2019. Allen produced consecutive negative EPA rates for the first time in the regular season since Weeks 1-2 in 2021. The swoon dropped him from third to seventh in this season’s overall EPA rankings.

Nos. 9-16

Lions running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for nearly 200 yards and three touchdowns and Jared Goff amassed his best EPA rate of the season in the win over the Chargers. A nice bounce-back outing for Goff after the bye. He struggled a bit in Weeks 7-8 with a -0.15 EPA rate and 76.9 passer rating.

Baker Mayfield has left that Week 6-8 stretch behind (-0.11 EPA rate, 77.1 passer rating). In the last two games, Mayfield tallied a 0.29 EPA rate and 111.1 passer rating. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB is easily having his best season since 2020 when he went to the playoffs with the Browns.

Geno Smith rebounded from the worst EPA rate and passer rating of his Seattle Seahawks career in Week 9 to propel the team to a last-second win over the Washington Commanders in Week 10. It was his third 100.0-plus-passer rating performance of this season.

In the last five Green Bay Packers losses, Jordan Love has yielded a -0.10 EPA rate and 67.8 passer rating. Love also possesses the league’s lowest completion percentage at 58.7 percent. All that said, Love has produced a 0.10 EPA rate or better in three of his last four games.

Coincidence that an AFC North foe was the last team to slow down the Baltimore Ravens’ Jackson this season? The numbers from Jackson’s Week 10 outing in a loss to the Cleveland Browns resembled his performance in a Week 5 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers (-0.31 EPA rate, 65.2 passer rating). His 56.5 completion percentage in Week 10 stands as a season low.

I’ve been pretty harsh on Wilson for his empty stats and a career-worst game (in terms of EPA) during this season. Wilson’s EPA rate probably should’ve been higher given how often the Broncos began possessions inside Bills territory in Week 10. But … Wilson looked the part again in a thrilling win. During the Broncos’ current three-game winning streak, Wilson has amassed a 0.05 EPA rate and 115. passer rating.

Nos. 17-24

Plenty of teams could use a Sam Howell-type quarterback right now. Too bad the Commanders squandered very good outings for Howell in Week 8 and 10 losses to the Philadelphia Eagles and Seahawks, respectively. Howell totaled a 0.18 EPA rate and 111.8 passer rating in those two games.

You might not know this, but Josh Dobbs ranked ninth in EPA rate (0.12) and 10th in passer rating (99.4) during the first four weeks of the season while starting for the Arizona Cardinals. So I’m not totally stunned by the success he’s having in Minnesota. It’s more about how quickly he’s acclimated himself with the Vikings.

Burrow and Derek Carr possess very similar overall numbers, and I wouldn’t have imagined that to be the case more than halfway through the season. It feels so much better for the Cincinnati Bengals’ signal caller, though. despite the setback in Week 10 against the Texans. The Carr seemed too unsettled in Week 10 — and sustained a concussion and right shoulder re-injury — despite coming off a 0.22 EPA rate and 119.6 passer rating in Weeks 8-9.

The Indianapolis Colts’ Gardner Minshew made it the ninth time this season in which a quarterback guided a team to a win this season with a passer rating south of 70.0.

The Las Vegas Raiders are 2-0 since Aidan O’Connell took over as the starter in Week 9. O’Connell didn’t set the world on fire in the team’s Week 10 win over the New York Jets with a -0.27 EPA rate and 72.0 passer rating. O’Connell had more success against the New York Giants in Week 9 (0.25 EPA rate, 90.3 passer rating).

Justin Fields is expected to start this week for the Chicago Bears after missing the last month with a right thumb injury. Rookie Tyson Bagent kept the Bears viable with a 2-2 mark as a starter despite posting lackluster rates.

Nos. 25-33

We’re only two weeks removed from the Tennessee Titans’ Will Levis yielding a 0.13 EPA rate and 130.5 passer rating in his first start in a win over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 8. Last two weeks for Levis: -0.16 EPA rate, 59.8 passer rating.

Current Falcons starter Taylor Heinicke isn’t passer-rating qualified yet so he’s not listed in the rankings. In three appearances, Heinicke has produced a 0.02 EPA rate and 84.2 passer rating. His Week 10 numbers in a loss to the Cardinals: -0.25 EPA rate, 84.0 passer rating.

No hyperbole here with the Jags’ Trevor Lawrence. He compiled the worst EPA rate and third-worst passer rating of his career in the blowout loss to the 49ers. Quite the way to halt consistency. During Jacksonville’s five-game winning streak, Lawrence tallied a 0.04 EPA rate and 100.2 passer rating.

The Browns and Steelers both stand at 6-3 and are very much in the thick of the AFC playoff race. This despite their respective quarterbacks Deshaun Watson and Kenny Pickett continuously near (or in) the basement of these rankings. Watson picked up his biggest win as Browns QB in Week 11 against the Ravens, but now he’s out for the year with a right shoulder injury. As for Pickett, he hasn’t thrown a pick since Oct. 1.

Mac Jones’ time as the New England Patriots’ starter may be nearing an end with Bailey Zappe replacing Jones on the final drive in the Week 10 loss to the Colts.

Would you have ever thought this statistic would exist? So far, undrafted rookie Bagent has pushed the Bears to more wins in four starts this season than 2023 No. 1 pick Bryce Young has for the Carolina Panthers.

I see little point in examining the New York quarterbacks, but since the Giants’ Tommy DeVito doesn’t qualify for overall rankings, here you go: -0.30 EPA rate, 67.8 passer rating vs. Cowboys in Week 10.

(The Cardinals’ Kyler Murray will be ranked once he’s passer-rating qualified. Murray returned from his knee injury with a -0.12 EPA rate and 71.0 passer rating in the team’s Week 10 win over the Falcons.)

Week 11 defense vs. QB EPA matchups

*Injury uncertainty heading into Week 11

(Photo of Dak Prescott; Cooper Neill / Getty Images)

The post NFL QB EPA rankings: Dak Prescott transferring up, Josh Allen transferring down and is Russell Wilson again? appeared first on DAILY SAN FRANCISCO BAY NEWS.

Friday was a day to digest the NFL schedule and analyze the weekly fixtures and calendar dates from every possible angle. Cowboys fans had plenty to munch on with the numerous prime-time appearances and big duels that will make up the 2023 season. We have the full coverage of Cowboys Wire, from key takeaways to point spreads to TV ratings predictions. We also look back at the schedule release videos – that of the Cowboys and their opponents – to see how the other clubs announced their participation in America’s Team (and sometimes started their trash-talk a little earlier).

Meanwhile, the front office had a busy day of paperwork with all eight draft picks. We have news on the training program that has helped the Cowboys find three of this year’s most athletic youngsters, Luke Schoonmaker goes straight to the top for advice on how to be a tight end in Dallas, and Deuce Vaughn sits down that draft day by his father’s offer. All that plus an undrafted free agent to get to know now and why the first month of the season will be crucial in keeping headquarters in Big D a little less hot. Next up are news and notes…

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Final Score Prediction for every Cowboys Game in 2023 :: Cowboys Wire

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Bookmark now; The Cowboys end the season 14-3. Along the way there will be a surprisingly clean victory over the NFC East, five Fortyburger games, an overtime thriller and the exorcism of at least one longtime green jersey demon.

The 10 Best Insights From The Cowboys 2023 Schedule, Plus Preseason Matches :: Cowboys Wire

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The good news: No triple road trips and there are plenty of lower level attacks for Dan Quinn’s group to take on. The bad news: There are very few enemy defenses that can move around with ease, and a lot of late nights for those tracking and covering the team. In the preseason, the Cowboys host Jacksonville, travel to Seattle, and welcome the Raiders to town.

Cowboys open -2.5 at Giants in Week 1, 12-game favorite in 2023 :: Cowboys Wire

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It’s early days, but Dallas starts as an underdog in just five competitions: San Francisco, Chargers, Philadelphia, Buffalo and Miami. The widest spread is +4 for the week 15 game against the Bills in mid-December in upstate New York.

Must-See TV: The 5 Biggest Games on the Cowboys Schedule of 2023 :: Cowboys Wire

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America’s team always turns heads. But this year, the encounters with the 49ers, Eagles, Bills, Seahawks and (check again) the Lions could be the biggest games of the season.

Cowboys 2023 schedule: FOX desperately wanted the Cowboys’ game in Buffalo for massive ratings :: Blogging the Boys

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The network had the Cowboys’ visit to Buffalo — a scenario guaranteed to only happen once every eight years — higher on its wish list than the Cowboys-Eagles. It’s one of eight Dallas games in 2023 to air on Fox.

The Bengals have campaigned with the NFL to host a Black Friday game every year :: ESPN

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NFL manager Mike North said the Bengals have volunteered to not only host the league’s first Black Friday football game, but also serve as a permanent venue for the game, much like Detroit and Dallas have traditionally Home teams are on Thanksgiving. Amazon, which airs the game on the busiest shopping day of the year, suggested to the league that launching the game in the country’s largest retail market would be a “fun way” to showcase the concept.

WATCH: Cowboys Auditions for “Yellowstone” Scheduled for 2023 Release Video :: Cowboys Wire

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For this year’s production, the team received Hollywood help from Yellowstone creator Taylor Sheridan. And they let cowboys past and present, from the Triplets to Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Trevon Diggs, try out their acting and even singing skills.

Chew toys, rap, and that anime bus: How Cowboys opponents revealed the Dallas 2023 matches :: Cowboys Wire

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Some teams kept their videos simple (look at cards). Some chose sweet (Philadelphia). Some tried to capitalize on the latest trends like TikTok and AI. And some went straight for the jugular, impaling every opponent as hard as they could; The Chargers remain the trolling kings with their Easter egg-filled anime video that holds no fire.

NFL Betting 2023: Exploring Which Coach Could Be Fired First :: The 33rd Team

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The first four games of the season will set the tone for any coach… and could be the beginning of the end for someone. The Cowboys appear to have a 3-1 start within reach (and maybe even 4-0). But if they come out with just .500 in week 4, you should be on your guard. The next two games will be tough; Going into a bye with a 2-4 mark could cause panic and result in Mike McCarthy being substituted on the week off.

Deuce actually went to work with his father :: The Mothership

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This line from Cowboys scout Chris Vaughn to his newly drafted son wasn’t just for dramatic effect. The two actually drove to The Star together on Thursday to begin minicamp activities. “We had our conversations like we always do,” Deuce said. “I’m just talking about what exactly it takes to make it at this level.”

Dallas Cowboys second-round pick Luke Schoonmaker wants to speak to Jason Witten :: Fort Worth Star-Telegram

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The rookie tight end grew up with Rob Gronkowski but wants to learn what he can from the greatest cowboy to ever play the position. “I’ve been looking at Witten lately,” Schoonmaker said. “As a player he is of course spectacular. He will be a Hall of Famer. He as a person, as a teammate. He’s such a leader.” He’s already reached out to Big Witt for advice.

How pre-draft practice gives a glimpse into the physical and mental state of the Cowboys’ rookie trio :: Dallas Morning News

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44 NFL contenders trained at the EXOS facility in Phoenix this year. That group included seven players drafted in the first round…and three of the Cowboys’ eight picks. Linebacker DeMarvion Overshown scored best in lower body explosiveness while nose tackle Smith took second place. On the sixth lap, Eric Scott Jr. finished fourth overall.

All Cowboys draft picks officially signed; Contract Details :: Cowboys Wire

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The team signed all eight draft picks Thursday, just ahead of this weekend’s rookie minicamp. Mazi Smith, who was selected in the first round, leads the way with a four-year contract worth $13.27 million that is fully guaranteed. The last pick that year, Jalen Brooks, signed a contract worth $3.92 million.

Sources: Agent Allegedly Offered Gifts to Encourage Players to Draft :: ESPN

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Agent David Canter is under investigation for allegedly offering the teams bribes — such as the use of vacation properties — in exchange for brokering his clients. Canter’s veteran clients include DeMarcus Lawrence, the defensive end of the Cowboys. Attempting to incentivize a team to recruit a player is not specifically prohibited by the NFLPA; Canter’s attorney says the agent did not commit any wrongdoing.

The NFL’s Best UDFA Matches 2023: An Undrafted Contender to Watch on Any Roster :: The Athletic

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The Cowboys always find highlights in the UDFA league, but Kansas offensive player Earl Bostick could be the one to watch this year. A characterful ex-tight end with 34 1/8-inch arms, he’s athletic enough to stand a chance.

NFL QB Index: Who tops a way-early list of MVP candidates in the middle? Check out my top 10! :: NFL.com

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2023 could not only be a rebound year for the Cowboys starting quarterback, but his best year ever. Marc Sessler picks Prescott as one of his top ten candidates for MVP. Brandin Cooks and the team’s new tight end could improve Prescott’s numbers. But “durability concerns – he’s missed 17 games in the last three seasons – and problematic plays are part of the mix.”

Dak and Emmitt open Academy of Country Music Awards at The Star :: Bri Amaranthus (Twitter)

The story originally appeared on Cowboys Wire

The post Cowboys high wishlist for Fox, Deuce Vaughn makes good on promise, Dak for MVP in ’23? appeared first on DAILY SAN FRANCISCO BAY NEWS.

FRISCO, Texas — Dak Prescott can’t stop thinking about the Dallas Cowboys’ 23-17 loss to the San Francisco 49ers in the wild-card round of the playoffs.

He entered the postseason believing the Cowboys were ready for a deep run and maybe put to rest the franchise’s 26-season Super Bowl drought. Instead, they were the only home team to lose on the first weekend of the playoffs.

“There’s probably some games, some moments in an athlete’s career that just stick with them forever, and I’m sure that’ll be one of them,” the quarterback said at Ford Center recently.

The disappointment may linger, but the work to renew the optimism he had in January will soon begin.

After the loss to the Niners, Prescott said he would take a little bit of time away to reboot. He passed on playing in the Pro Bowl after a long period of constant rehab due to the dislocation and compound fracture of his right ankle in 2020, the right latissimus strain he suffered in training camp and the right calf injury he suffered in October.

A year ago at this time, Prescott was just getting out of a cast after a second surgery on his right ankle. He was in a walking boot and a month or so away from signing the richest deal in Cowboys history: four years, $160 million, including a $65 million signing bonus.

If 2021 was about Prescott’s return to health, 2022 will be about his ability to carry the Cowboys back to a Super Bowl with a roster that may look a lot different than the one that finished 12-5 and won the NFC East.

“Dak has the skill to make that happen,” owner and general manager Jerry Jones said on 105.3 The Fan in Dallas after the season ended.

Unlike last year, quarterback Dak Prescott heads into the offseason without having to rehab back from major injury. Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images

History, however, is not on the side of Prescott, who’s entering his seventh season as the Cowboys’ starter in 2022.

Since 1980, only three quarterbacks have made it to their first Super Bowl with their original team after a longer run as the every-game starter than Prescott has had as the Cowboys’ starter. Ken Anderson was in his 10th season with the Cincinnati Bengals when they made Super Bowl XVI. Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan were in their ninth seasons as the starters for the Indianapolis Colts and Atlanta Falcons in their first runs to Super Bowls XLI and LI, respectively.

Prescott is coming off a season in which he set a franchise record for touchdown passes (37). He completed a career-best 68.8% of his passes. He threw for 4,449 yards in 16 starts, the second-best total of his career. He directed the no. 1 offense in terms of yardage and points.

Yet it wasn’t good enough to get the Cowboys past the first weekend of the playoffs.

It was almost as if Prescott had two seasons inside one season: the first six games before suffering a calf injury and his last 10 after the calf injury.

Before getting hurt on the overtime touchdown pass to receiver CeeDee Lamb to beat the New England Patriots in Week 6, Prescott was an MVP candidate, throwing for 1,813 yards with 16 touchdown passes to four interceptions while completing 73.1% of his passes.

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After the injury, he threw for 2,636 yards with 21 touchdown passes and six interceptions and completed 66% of his passes. Those numbers are still good but not at the level Prescott showed in the first games of the 2020 season before his ankle injury and the first six games of the 2021 season.

“I went through a period in the time right there in the season and just didn’t play my best ball, and people tried to say it was the calf,” Prescott said on “The Rich Eisen Show” podcast. “The calf got better. I did everything that I needed to do for it to heal.”

Something happened, be it the ineffectiveness of the running game in part because of the partially torn posterior cruciate ligament Ezekiel Elliott suffered in October, the refusal to give running back Tony Pollard more looks, the inconsistencies on the offensive line or the unavailability of key receivers Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup or Lamb because of COVID-19 or injuries.

At times, Prescott’s footwork seemed out of whack, although coach Mike McCarthy called that a “blanket statement.”

“I don’t think it’s, you know, ‘My god, we’ve got to fix that,’ No, that’s not the case,” McCarthy said. “I think just like anything if he was standing here he’ll tell you there’s some throws or some things we maybe need more reps at or more timing. And I think with the challenge of having multiple perimeter options [out], getting in tune with every guy on every particular route, working through the route tree, we definitely need to continue working on the details of that. So I think it all will be a part of moving forward.”

One other thing changed after Prescott’s calf injury on Oct. 17. His personal quarterback coach, 3DQB’s John Beck, took a job as an assistant with the New York Jets on Nov. 2 to help tutor Zach Wilson, the No. 2 overall pick in the draft.

Prescott said he was still getting feedback from Adam Dedeaux, Beck’s partner.

“The in-season is not that important, I guess you can say as much as the off-season is,” Prescott said during the season. “But yeah, I look forward to getting back to him [when] the off-season happens.”

Prescott credits Beck and 3DQB as part of the foundation to his success. While his pregame warm-up became a viral sensation, the details of the program helped further Prescott’s game. Last offseason, however, they could not do everything they wanted because of Prescott’s recovery from the ankle injury.

Back in motion! @dak #3DQBTEXAS pic.twitter.com/vPYv94kzCQ

— 3DQBTexas (@DamianDevon) April 7, 2021

“Everything had to involve rehab,” said Beck, who will not return to the Jets. “Like in the beginning there were days that we couldn’t have him on his feet going through a normal work day. We had to do things that took him off his feet and be strategic on how we’d work some rotational abilities, his balance, his mechanics without requiring too much from his leg and ankle too soon.”

Considering the detail involved in the position of the shoulder relative to the hips and the torque required to make certain throws, there was only so much they could do.

“Dak by nature is a pusher,” Beck said. “He’s going to push the envelope. He’s going to try to come back sooner, ‘Hey, I’m feeling good. Let’s go.’ But you’ve got to be smart with it.”

Most of the power comes from Prescott’s right leg, although not every throw requires the same amount of strength. A lot of the work Prescott goes through is to simulate game situations so the unnatural can become natural.

“Dak is wired that way to have great feet and be as clean as possible,” Beck said.

The goal last offseason was to get Prescott back to where he was before the injury. Now the goal is to make him better than he has ever been, “even if it’s by just one percent,” Beck said.

The workouts bounce between the Dallas area, including Prescott’s backyard turf field, and California. The time on field varies. Sometimes teammates will be on hand with Prescott putting together trips to build a better rapport on and off the field.

“I know he’s excited to have an offseason that feels like his normal offseason,” Beck said.

Beck is right.

“Just having a full offseason to be able to go through my training and not worry about getting my leg healthy, all my quarterback drills and everything that I do in a normal, healthy offseason,” Prescott said.

In addition to his health at this time a year ago, Prescott’s contractual future was in question. Would the Cowboys place the franchise tag on him again? Could they justify such a big contract coming off such a severe injury?

Those questions were answered by March when he signed a deal that averaged $40 million per season, topped only by Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes ($45 million) and subsequently topped by Buffalo’s Josh Allen ($43 million).

While not perfect, Prescott answered questions about his ability to return from the injury during the course of the season.

Now Prescott, who turns 29 in July, needs to answer another question: Can he take the Cowboys to a Super Bowl?

“I’m a worker. That’s all I know,” Prescott said from the AT&T podium after the loss to the Niners. “I’ll take maybe a week or so to get away I guess you could say, clear my mind. But that’s kind of hard for me, especially after a season like this, having a chance, having the people that we have, I think this is a season that will probably stick with me and motivate me throughout the rest of my career, not just this offseason. I’ll be back at it pretty quick.

“I’m looking forward to getting better, becoming a better player, and doing whatever I can to help the team to get back to this position, but more importantly win.”

The post Shifting previous 2021, Cowboys’ Dak Prescott welcomes offseason centered on development, not restoration – Dallas Cowboys Weblog appeared first on DAILY SAN FRANCISCO BAY NEWS.