She went to the hardware store to buy five gallons of paint in different colors.

“I wanted to make a mural in the corner of my bedroom,” she said. “And then I realized it doesn’t take 5 gallons to paint a few square feet. But I was stuck with $200 worth of paint. So I decided to just paint my whole damn house. I did a giant mural going down my entire hallway, down the stairwell, my cabinet and wall trim, my ceilings, I was just like, I’m getting rid of this paint. That quickly changed my house to be colorful and bright.”

“It was very much art therapy,” she said. “And it made me feel better. I had always wanted to make my space my own, but I just couldn’t. This was the first time where I was like, I have a canvas, I can do whatever I want!”

Slowly, she turned her home into a work of art. “When my friends saw my house, they told me to post it online, and I said, ‘This is crazy, I’m way too old for TikTok!’”

But during a slow period at work, she decided to try it. She cut two shots into a simple video, showcasing a bedroom window surrounded by a DIY greenery wall, and posted it to TikTok. Within one day, it had a million views.

The greenery wall that started it all, via her Instagram.

“It just went viral, my very first video!” she exclaimed. “I had no idea that was special! I didn’t really use TikTok. I just thought, this is so easy, anyone can do this!”

So she continued creating videos, documenting her painting, sharing renter-friendly decorating hacks, and making response videos to some of the crazier comments. “Boomers call it a tacky preschool aesthetic,” she said. “People think it’s young, but I just think it’s fun!”

She says she doesn’t read her comments anymore, since some are quite toxic, especially on TikTok. “I can’t believe people get upset about how other people decorate their homes. It’s not your home, chill out!”

In January 2023, she lost her full-time job, a casualty of the big tech layoffs at the time. But rather than look for another job, she decided to lean into content creation. She parlayed her internet fame into a new career as an interior decorator, taking on projects for open-minded clients that give her free creative rein, doing brand partnerships, and creating her own wallpaper designs.

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History and local connections count in San Francisco construction — especially as the city moves past the post-pandemic meltdown of its downtown office market and aims to overcome negative coverage from national news.

Firms based in the city dominated TRD’s first-ever ranking of general contractors in San Francisco. Several have been in the same family for generations.

“We’ve got relationships that go back 30 years or more,” said Bob Nibbi, CEO of third-ranked Nibbi Bros., which was founded by his grandfather in 1950. “That’s an advantage for times like these, when things get tight.”

The pandemic and subsequent negative perceptions of San Francisco are yet another chapter in the city’s ongoing boom and bust storyline, starting with its rapid Gold Rush-era development, followed by the famously destructive 1906 earthquake and fires.

The top-ranked company on the list, Cahill Contractors, started when founder J.R. Cahill was “inspired to rebuild” the city in the wake of the 1906 earthquake, according to the company’s website. These days, Kathryn Cahill Thompson, the company’s CEO since 2016, represents the fourth generation of family leadership.

Thompson and others on the list are all operating in an era of tough financing for construction loans and slow-moving projects.

“Construction is always the last to feel a recession. We’re out there building it, and in the meantime, developers are not getting the next project ready.”
Bob Nibbi, Nibbi Brothers

San Francisco had 6,600 residential units — a staple segment for general contractors — under construction as of the first quarter of 2023, according to data from the city’s planning department. That’s down from 9,600 in the first quarter of 2020.

TRD’s rankings took a three-year view, tracking both the number of projects the firms are working on and the total cost of the projects. The construction projects did not need to be underway in order to count toward the total, and both firms were given credit for joint ventures. The data is based on San Francisco permits issued between November 15, 2020, and November 15, 2023, and only covers projects within the city limits.

Cahill has been general contractor on 10 permitted projects during that time, according to city records, with a combined value of about $600 million. All of those projects were for apartments, except for a $16 million Buddhist temple with a community center near the Polk Street corridor. Another notable project is in the Bayview, with 118 units of affordable housing accounting for $100 million of that total.

Swinerton Construction took the second-place spot, with 10 projects at a total of about $485 million in costs. Nearly half that total came from one project, a 16-story, 500-unit apartment building in SoMa.

The company recently announced that it would name president David Callis as CEO this month when current CEO Eric Foster retires. Swinerton is even older than Cahill, with more than 130 years of history in San Francisco.

Nibbi Brothers had eight projects permitted for a total of about $450 million. CEO Bob Nibbi is the third generation to run the company along with his brother, Michael, who is the vice president, and his father, Larry, who is chairman of the board.

Bob Nibbi said that affordable housing projects have been keeping his employees busy as the rest of the development pipeline dries up, with market-rate multifamily development “pretty much non-existent.”

With fewer projects to bid on, Nibbi is “aggressively competing” for GC work and as concrete subs on other GC’s projects, he said. But even if labor costs are down slightly, elevated material prices, higher interest rates and lower rents still mean that most projects outside of affordable housing and public sector work don’t pencil for developers, he added.

“Construction is always the last to feel a recession,” he said. “You’ve got work on the books and we’re out there building it, and in the meantime, developers are not getting the next project ready.”

Fourth-place Webcor Construction had three projects in the works according to permitting data, with a total value of nearly $260 million.

Two of the Webcor projects — an $84 million apartment tower on Treasure Island that broke ground in mid-2022 and a $45 million R&D building near Potrero Hill that topped out last year — are joint ventures with other construction firms, according to city records. Webcor’s only solo project, also on Treasure Island, is also its biggest: a 22-story mixed-use building with 250 apartments estimated to cost $130 million.

At 50 years old, Webcor is one of the younger companies on the list. It began on the Peninsula. Oracle’s headquarters in Redwood City, the Academy of Sciences in San Francisco and SFO’s Terminal One are among the most prominent projects in its history, according to the company.

Turner Construction was the only construction firm based outside the Bay Area to make the top five. The company is headquartered in New York City’s Hudson Yards, with a Bay Area office in Oakland.

Its work on a $231.1 million project developed by its New York landlord, Tishman Speyer, called Brannan Square, propelled the company onto the list. Turner built two of the three buildings at the 1 million-square-foot SoMa office and retail development, which centers around a one-acre park and recently began leasing.

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In this piece, we will take a look at the 16 biggest plumbing companies in the world. For more plumbing companies, head on over to 5 Biggest Plumbing Companies in the World.

Plumbing is one of the most important industries in the world. This is due to the simple fact that human health and living standards have massively improved as time has progressed, and at the heart of this improvement is sanitation and waste management since it is crucial to prevent the outbreak of diseases.

At the same time, plumbing has also allowed humans to live in regions that were previously uninhabitable. The ability to use hot water is one of the most important inventions of modern day society since it enables populations living in harsh climates to maintain their hygiene. Therefore, the plumbing industry itself is worth billions of dollars. On this front, a research report from Global Industry Analysts estimates that the global plumbing fixtures and fittings market was worth $81.8 billion in 2020. From this, it will grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4% to sit at roughly $111 billion by the end of 2027. According to the research firm, within this market, the kitchen sink and fixtures market will outpace the broader market by growing at a 5.1% while the bathroom fixtures segment will follow the market by growing at 4.5%.

Global Industry Analysts also estimate that China will grow faster than the market as well, with its plumbing and fixtures market growing at a 5.7% CAGR to sit at $30.2 billion by the end of 2027. As far as the U.S. is concerned, the country’s plumbing market was worth $17.3 billion in 2020 to account for almost a quarter of the entire market.

Speaking about the trends in the market, the plumbing industry is also being influenced by technology, especially due to its potential to contribute to climate change and the efficient utilization of the Earth’s natural resources. However, before we get to that, the industry itself is facing several problems as we settle into 2023. The U.S. economy is currently witnessing a paradigm shift as the Federal Reserve grapples with both the painful reality of inflation and the consequences of its fight to contain it. The Fed’s decision to rapidly increase interest rates has stressed the U.S. financial system, including the housing industry as people find it more difficult to get mortgages to buy more homes, and construction firms also find it harder to finance their working capital. Naturally, any impact on the housing market will also impact the plumbing sector, and the industry has been anticipated to experience slow job growth until 2030. However, at the same time, in what is perhaps a counterintuitive fact, the plumbing industry is still facing a labor shortage, with the National Association of Home Builders estimating that there was a 55% plumbing labor shortage in 2021.

Story continues

With that out of the way, now let’s focus on the rising trend of smart housing. According to research from Grand View Market Research, the solar heater market was worth a mere $2 billion in 2016 but is expected to outpace the broader global plumbing fixture market by growing at a CAGR of 8.1% by 2025. The research firm attributes this growth to rising energy prices that end up increasing everyone’s natural gas or electricity bill as well as a rising global population. Additionally, according to the same research firm, the global smart bathroom fixtures market is also expected to outpace the broader market, since it will exhibit a CAGR of 10.5% between 2020 and 2027 to sit at an estimated $6.7 billion by the end of the forecast period. Grand View Market Research attributes this growth to the novel features offered by products such as smart toilets which are self cleaning and have innovative devices like smart faucets which help users save water. The smart faucet segment is expected to grow at 10.9% by 2027. At the same time, the smart toilet segment formed the largest market share, as it commanded 33% of the broader market in 2019.

Don’t Miss: 20 Biggest Plumbing Supply Companies in the World

Finally, the winds of sustainability have already started to blow in the industry itself, with the chief executive officer of Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation (NYSE:ZWS), a water flow systems products provider, Mr. Todd Adams, outlining in a recent earnings call:

Our customers care about the sustainability of their buildings and retrofit products, that’s why we will soon complete our first product lifecycle analysis, the document, end-to-end environmental impact of our Elkay stainless steel sinks with plans to do more. Creating LCA’s alongside environmental product declaration gives our customers additional confidence that Zurn Elkay products will help them achieve their own sustainability goals and earn sustainability certifications like WELL 2.0 and LEAD. We simply believe that doing the right thing and we’re proud of our sustainability efforts continue to be recognized. For the third consecutive year, Newsweek has named Zurn Elkay one of America’s most responsible companies. We’re continuing to build on all the work we’ve done and including embedding ESG into our strategic planning process efforts and hope that you will take care of a look at our report later this month.

With these details in mind, today we’ll take a look at some of the biggest plumbing companies in the world, out of which the top picks are Centrica plc (OTCMKTS:CPYYY), CRH plc (NYSE:CRH), and Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A. (OTCMKTS:CODYY).

Photo by Marian Florinel Condruz on Unsplash

Our Methodology

We started off our hunt for the largest plumbing companies by first making a list of all companies that make and sell plumbing products. Then, their latest twelve month revenue was calculated, and the top sixteen biggest plumbing companies in the world are listed below.

Biggest Plumbing Companies in the World

16. Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation (NYSE:ZWS)

Latest Twelve Month Revenue Estimate: $1.2 billion

Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation (NYSE:ZWS) is an American firm headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The firm makes and sells water control products and solutions such as valves, controls, piping, and tubing.

By the end of last year’s fourth quarter, 24 of the 943 hedge funds surveyed by Insider Monkey had held a stake in the company. Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation (NYSE:ZWS) is one of the biggest plumbing companies in the world, alongside others such as CRH plc (NYSE:CRH), Centrica plc (OTCMKTS:CPYYY), and  Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A. (OTCMKTS:CODYY).

15. Watts Water Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:WTS)

Latest Twelve Month Revenue Estimate: $1.9 billion

Watts Water Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:WTS) is an American company based in North Andover, Massachusetts. It provides products such as leak protection equipment, valves, rainwater harvesting solutions, and water filtration equipment.

Insider Monkey dug through 943 hedge fund portfolios for their fourth quarter of 2022 investments and found out that 21 had bought Watts Water Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:WTS)’s shares. Out of these, Ian Simm’s Impax Asset Management is the firm’s largest hedge fund investor since it owns 1.9 million shares that are worth $284 million.

14. A. O. Smith Corporation (NYSE:AOS)

Latest Twelve Month Revenue Estimate: $3.7 billion

A. O. Smith Corporation (NYSE:AOS) serves the needs of both residential and commercial customers by providing products such as water heaters, boilers, filtration products, and tanks. It is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

Insider Monkey’s December quarter of 2022 survey covering 943 hedge funds revealed that 26 had invested in the firm. A. O. Smith Corporation (NYSE:AOS)’s largest shareholder is Ian Simm’s Impax Asset Management which owns four million shares that are worth $232 million.

13. MSC Industrial Direct Co. Inc. (NYSE:MSM)

Latest Twelve Month Revenue Estimate: $3.8 billion

MSC Industrial Direct Co. Inc. (NYSE:MSM) is a diversified industrial equipment manufacturing firm that also supplies plumbing products. It is based in Melville, New York.

30 of the 943 hedge funds covered by Insider Monkey had invested in MSC Industrial Direct Co. Inc. (NYSE:MSM) during 2022’s December quarter. Seth Rosen’s Nitorum Capital is the firm’s largest investor through a $78 million stake.

12. Mueller Industries, Inc. (NYSE:MLI)

Latest Twelve Month Revenue Estimate: $3.9 billion

Mueller Industries, Inc. (NYSE:MLI) is an American company headquartered in Collierville, Tennessee. The firm’s Piping Systems business division sells plumbing products such as tubes, fittings and valves.

Insider Monkey’s Q4 2022 survey of 943 hedge funds revealed that 27 had held a stake in the company. Mueller Industries, Inc. (NYSE:MLI)’s largest shareholder is Mario Gabelli’s GAMCO Investors which owns 2.4 million shares that are worth $145 million.

11. Toto Ltd. (OTCMKTS:TOTDY)

Latest Twelve Month Revenue Estimate: $5.27 billion (1JPY = 0.0076USD)

Toto Ltd. (OTCMKTS:TOTDY) is a Japanese building products company that sells plumbing products such as sinks, toilet seats, faucets, valves, and more. It is headquartered in Kitakyushu, Japan.

10. Pool Corporation (NASDAQ:POOL)

Latest Twelve Month Revenue Estimate: $6.2 billion

Pool Corporation (NASDAQ:POOL) is an American company headquartered in Covington, Louisiana. It provides pool and garden equipment including irrigation systems and commercial pumps, and filters.

By the end of last year’s fourth quarter, 37 of the 943 hedge funds part of Insider Monkey’s database had invested in Pool Corporation (NASDAQ:POOL). Robert Joseph Caruso’s Select Equity Group is the firm’s largest shareholder since it owns 1.5 million shares worth $454 million.

9. Fastenal Company (NASDAQ:FAST)

Latest Twelve Month Revenue Estimate: $6.9 billion

Fastenal Company (NASDAQ:FAST) is an industrial equipment products manufacturer based in Winona, Minnesota. The firm provides plumbing contractors with different products such as fasteners and washers.

40 of the 943 hedge funds part of Insider Monkey’s Q4 2022 study had bought the company’s shares. Fastenal Company (NASDAQ:FAST)’s largest hedge fund investor is William Von Mueffling’s Cantillon Capital Management which owns a $251 million stake.

8. Watsco, Inc. (NYSE:WSO)

Latest Twelve Month Revenue Estimate: $7.2 billion

Watsco, Inc. (NYSE:WSO) sells plumbing and bathroom remodeling supplies. It is headquartered in Miami, Florida.

As of December 2022, 32 of the 943 hedge funds surveyed by Insider Monkey had bought a stake in Watsco, Inc. (NYSE:WSO). Out of these, Tom Gayner’s Markel Gayner Asset Management is the firm’s largest investor since it owns 500,250 shares that are worth $124 million.

7. Masco Corporation (NYSE:MAS)

Latest Twelve Month Revenue Estimate: $8.7 billion

Masco Corporation (NYSE:MAS) sells bathroom products such as shower trays, shower bases, sinks, and toilets. It is based in Livonia, Michigan.

28 out of the 943 hedge funds polled by Insider Monkey had invested in the firm in last year’s December quarter. Out of these, Masco Corporation (NYSE:MAS)’s largest investor is Natixis Global Asset Management’s Harris Associates through a $391 million stake.

6. UFP Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:UFPI)

Latest Twelve Month Revenue Estimate: $9.6 billion

UFP Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:UFPI) sells plumbing products through its construction segment. It is based in Grand Rapids,  Michigan.

Insider Monkey took a look at 943 hedge fund portfolios for last year’s fourth quarter to find out that 29 had bought UFP Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:UFPI)’s shares. Out of these, Cliff Asness’ AQR Capital Management is the firm’s largest investor since it owns 428,286 shares that are worth $63 million.

Centrica plc (OTCMKTS:CPYYY), UFP Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:UFPI), CRH plc (NYSE:CRH), and Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A. (OTCMKTS:CODYY) are some of the biggest plumbing companies in the world.

Click to continue reading and see 5 Biggest Plumbing Companies in the World.

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Disclosure: None. 16 Biggest Plumbing Companies in the World is originally published on Insider Monkey.

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Dive Brief:

• Lendlease’s rough 2023 continues. The Australia-based builder and developer hit pause on Hayes Point, a $1.2 billion, 47-story mixed-use tower in in San Francisco, CEO Tony Lombardo told investors during an earnings call Monday.
• The project, originally set for completion in 2026, is the company’s largest investment in the U.S., according to Reuters. If finished, the project will hold 300 condos and over 300,000 square feet of office space, according to the San Francisco Business Times.
• The stall follows Lendlease laying off about 10% of its global staff — or about 740 workers — in mid-July. At the time of layoffs, an official statement from Lombardo claimed the worker reduction wouldn’t impact project delivery dates.

Dive Insight:

In its rocky earnings report released Monday, Lendlease announced an AU$232 million statutory loss ($150 million USD). Nonetheless, the company claimed its financial position was stable in its 2023 annual report, with AU$22.9 billion of work in progress and AU$8.7 billion in external construction backlog revenue. The latter represented a 17% drop from its full-year 2022 results.

Lombardo addressed Hayes Point in the earnings call, stating the project was paused to “de-risk” the investment, which has cost AU$260 million to date, until Lendlease secures more tenants or a capital partner.

“So until we get one of those two things to come to fruition, we won’t restart,” Lombardo said. “From a capital perspective, we still see good returns in that project. So we don’t feel at the moment there’s any risk of impairment.” 

Lombardo said that of the work Lendlease launched this year, Hayes Point was unique in that it didn’t have outside capital backing the project.

Within the U.S., the San Francisco property market has been hit particularly hard. Following remote work trends that started during the pandemic, office vacancies have remained persistently high. 

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San Franciscans are more likely to be thinking about skipping town in the next year than residents of any other major metropolitan area, according to new data.

The data was released by the American Housing Survey, a survey conducted once every two years by the U.S. Census Bureau, and shows that about 18% of residents of the San Francisco metropolitan area plan on moving from their home in the next year. Of those residents who said they plan on moving, nearly half, or about 8% of the metro area’s total population, say they plan on moving to a different city, the largest share of any major metro in the data.

Because this survey looks at metropolitan areas, which are bigger than cities, it’s possible that people who indicated they were thinking about moving cities could be pondering a move within the metro — from San Francisco to Oakland, say, or vice versa. This could explain part of the difference between San Francisco and some other metros in the data that have only one major city, like New York. But overall, the data shows that people in the San Francisco metro area are more likely to be considering substantial moves than in other metros.

Only Seattle’s metro area came close to San Francisco’s, with 7.2% of residents planning to move to another city. The Seattle area had a larger share of people thinking about moving, but more of its residents said they planned on moving within their city than S.F.’s.

Large, busy metropolitan areas tend to see more migration in general than other parts of the country — people tend to be younger and thus more mobile than in rural areas. But even among these regions, the San Francisco metro stands out. Other large metros with similar age distributions of households, like New York and Chicago, had far fewer residents pondering a major move in 2021 — 3.2% and 5% of estimated residents, respectively.

This is the first year the AHS has included this specific question in its survey, so it’s not possible to compare the findings to prior years. But other data suggests that pandemic-era trends could explain why San Francisco has more people thinking about leaving than any other metro.

Within the city of San Francisco itself, which comprises a large share of the overall metro, population changes during the pandemic were dramatic. The city lost nearly 55,000 people in a single year — more than 6% of its population — erasing a decade’s worth of population growth and causing it to bear the distinction of the city with the largest pandemic-era population drop.

The people who left the city were particularly likely to be young, white and rich. San Francisco lost 25% of its late-twenties white population over roughly the same time period, and its median income dropped by nearly 5% from 2019 to 2021 as a result of high earners leaving the city.

The survey does not include data on why people are considering leaving, but demographers have pointed to the region’s high cost of living, driven by an acute housing shortage, colliding with a newly high share of remote workers eager to purchase roomy, relatively affordable homes.

Susie Neilson (she/her) is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: susie.neilson@sfchronicle.com

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The stock of the Pittsburgh Steelers was on a fast track to the moon heading into the 2023 season.

Then, in Week One against the San Francisco 49ers, that stock came crashing back to Earth like a lead balloon.

Things went sideways quickly in a 30-7 loss at Acrisure Stadium on the North Shore in a much-anticipated season opener.

For Good Morning Football co-host and popular NFL Network personality Kyle Brandt, he believes that the Steelers “told the biggest lie” in Week One and that they’ll be just fine and will bounce back.

In his latest 10 Takes with Kyle Brandt podcast, he emphasized that Week One lies to people when it comes to results in the NFL.

“I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again to you: Week One is a liar. It is a pathological liar. Let me make sure you understand: there are teams in Week One that looked like garbage but will have home playoff games this year. There are teams that looked like Super Bowl teams but will miss the playoffs. You can look it up historically; Week One is a liar,” Brandt said on his 10 Takes podcast. “Who told the biggest lie in Week One? …I think it’s the Steelers … I think that the Steelers are going to get off the mat. I just think they ran into the best team in football in the 49ers.”

It’s not at all surprising that Brandt remains in on the Steelers and believes in them despite the lopsided loss in Week One. All summer long Brandt was seemingly driving the Steelers’ hype train, stating early on in the summer that he was picking them to make the playoffs because of Mike Tomlin and Kenny Pickett, well before the hype got out of control in the preseason.

Though the loss was an ugly one for the Steelers with them getting beat up in all three phases, chances are they just were dominated by the best team in football when it’s all said and done. It would not be at all shocking to see the 49ers hoisting the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the year in Las Vegas.

They are that good.

It’s also not surprising that the Steelers have some work to do. While Pittsburgh did a great job reshaping the roster this offseason through free agency, via a trade and in the 2023 NFL Draft, they are still a work in progress and need real reps and adversity to build upon and come together. Though training camp was rather intense and the starters played quite a bit in the preseason, there’s nothing like regular season football.

There’s also nothing like playing the 49ers, too, apparently.

Brandt has faith the Steelers will get off the mat and will be who everyone thought they were going to be, this time in Week Two. We’ll see if Pittsburgh — already pretty banged up — can get off the mat in primetime on Monday Night Football in Week Two.

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San Francisco saw the biggest increase in worker visits to the office in the country during July, according to Placer.ai, which uses cell phone data to track traffic in 800 buildings across 11 cities nationwide. 

San Francisco office visits were up 38.3 percent year-over-year, with second-place Washington D.C. coming in at 36.1 percent and New York a distant third at 16.1 percent. San Francisco also had the most ground to make up, given that it is still down 55.8 percent from July 2019 — the biggest pre-pandemic downshift in the country. Still, the city has made great strides in bringing workers back to downtown since the pre-vaccine depths of late 2020 and early 2021, when office visits were nearly 90 percent below July 2019 levels. 

Foot traffic in general downtown has seen a “significant uptick” this summer compared to one year ago, according to Dina Gourveia, Avison Young’s Market Intelligence Manager for the West. She said via email that increased tourism has been a big contributor as well as return to office mandates that may finally be starting to take hold after continued resistance from employees. 

“More businesses are seeing the importance of in-person work collaboration, therefore we also saw tenant activity increase compared to last year,” she said. “A fair number of those tenants are still working out occupancy needs following layoffs and restructuring. We anticipate further stabilization moving into the fall and winter months.”

Derek Daniels, Colliers’ research director for the Bay Area, said via email that the year-over-year growth was “encouraging” and that the brokerage is “bullish that RTO will continue to pick up in September and (is) expecting a general push in getting workers back into the physical office at least some of the time.” 

The other cities in the Placer survey also made inroads on their pre-pandemic office gaps, with nationwide office visits up 16 percent year-over-year. That could be due to an increase in return-to-office mandates, but it’s difficult to draw a direct connection, according to Placer’s Ethan Chernofsky.

Read more

“It’s difficult to say with any certainty whether shifts in return-to-office trends are driven by specific companies, city-led initiatives or a normal evolution of hybrid work standards,” he said via email. “The impact, however, is significant in that it brings needed visits back to office-oriented areas and the retailers and restaurants that rely on that traffic.”

Nationwide, July office visits were 37 percent below 2019 levels, indicating the continued strength of the hybrid model, Chernofsky said. That could mean that visits end up reduced only on certain days of the week or periods of time.

Washington D.C. now has the most recovered market but is still 22.4 percent off its pre-pandemic office visit figures, while second-place New York is down by nearly one-quarter.

“It is hard to imagine a reality where hybrid work’s impact doesn’t continue to make a significant difference in office visitation,” Chernofsky said. 

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It’s spring sales season when prices are increasing month-on-month, and they did, but that wasn’t enough.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

It’s still the spring sales season, with sales volumes and prices almost always increasing month-on-month, and that’s happened this spring too, but not enough, and compared to a year ago, the 20 cities in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Der The Shiller Home Price Index released today fell 1.7%, the sharpest year-on-year decline since 2012, after falling 1.1% the previous month after Fed money printers made gargantuan gains during the pandemic. The 20-city index is now 3.5% below its peak in June last year:

Today’s data for “April” is a three-month moving average of home prices for sales recorded in February, March and April in public records. This is the spring sales season, when prices always rise from the previous month, even during the first real estate crisis.

On a monthly basis, the 20-city index increased by 1.7% in April compared to March, but that was significantly lower growth than in April 2022 (+2.3%) and April 2021 (+2.2%). Why have prices continued to fall year-on-year:

The list of year-on-year price declines just keeps getting longer. Prices are now down in 10 of the 20 metro areas covered by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Here are the metros with year-on-year price declines:

1. Seattle: -12.4%
2. San Francisco Bay Area: -11.1%
3. Las Vegas: -6.6%
4. Phoenix: -6.1%
5. San Diego: -5.6%
6. Portland: -5.2%
7. Denver: -4.5%
8. Los Angeles: -3.2%
9. Dallas: -2.9%
10. Washington DC: -0.5%

In 19 of the 20 markets, prices have fallen from their respective highs (Period: May to July 2022). The exception is the New York City Metro, which surpassed its previous peak of July 2022. From their respective highs, prices have fallen the most in these metropolitan areas:

• Seattle: -12.9%
• San Francisco Bay Area: -12.0%
• Las Vegas: -9.9%
• Phoenix: -9.4%
• Dallas: -8.5%
• San Diego: -6.1%
• Portland: -6.0%
• Denver: -5.6%
• Los Angeles: -4.2%
• Tampa: -3.0%

Seattle Subway:

• Month by month: +2.3%.
• From the peak in May: -12.9%.
• YoY: -12.4%.

The 12.4% year-over-year decline in Seattle marked the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year declines:

The San Francisco Bay Area:

• Month by month: +2.2%.
• From May peak: -12.0%.
• YoY: -11.1%.

This was the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year declines:

And this is the situation for condos in the San Francisco Bay Area: after a big surge, they’re now back to where they were in May 2018:

Las Vegas Subway:

• Month by month: +0.7%.
• From July peak: -9.9%.
• YoY: -6.6%

Phoenix subway:

• Month by month: +0.7%.
• From June peak: -9.4%.
• YoY: -6.1%

San Diego Subway:

• Month by month: +2.0%.
• From the peak in May: -6.1%.
• YoY: -5.6%.

Portland Subway:

• Month by month: +1.5%.
• From May peak: -6.0%.
• YoY: -5.2%.

Denver Subway:

• Month by month: +1.6%.
• From May peak: -5.6%.
• YoY: -4.5%.

Los Angeles Subway:

• Month by month: +1.7%.
• From the peak in May: -4.2%.
• YoY: -3.2%.

Dallas Subway:

• Month by month: +1.4%.
• From June peak: -8.5%.
• YoY: -2.9%

Washington DC Subway:

• Month by month: +1.6%.
• From June peak: -1.6%.
• YoY: -0.5%

Boston subway:

• Month by month: +2.9%.
• From June peak: -1.6%.
• YoY: +0.9%

Tampa Subway:

• Month by month: +0.8%.
• From July peak: -3.0%
• YoY: +2.4%

Subway Miami:

• Month by month: +0.9%
• From July peak: -1.3%
• YoY: +5.2%

New York subway:

• Month by month: 1.5%.
• Surpassed July high: +0.4%
• Year-on-year: +3.0%

Methodology. The Case-Shiller Index uses the “sales pairs” method and compares sales in the current month to previous sales of the same homes. The price changes are weighted based on how long ago the previous sale was, and adjustments are made for DIY and other factors (methodology). This “selling pairs” method makes the Case-Shiller Index a more reliable indicator than median price indices, but lags behind by months.

The Case-Shiller indices were set at 100 for the year 2000. The Los Angeles Index score of 405 in April is up 305% since 2000. Los Angeles is the No. 1 in the “Splendid Housing Bubble” in terms of price increases since 2000. Miami and San Diego are just behind, both also up over 300%.

The remaining six markets in the Case Shiller Index have experienced far lower home price inflation since 2000 and do not qualify for this list of the most beautiful housing bubbles.

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Double digit declines from peak in San Francisco Bay Area, Seattle, San Diego, Phoenix, Las Vegas.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

View of Housing Bubble 2 in the San Francisco Bay Area:

This time it’s not an unemployment crisis that’s hitting the housing market. The job market is still tight with high pay rises – although the tech and social media sectors have started to shake. But it is mortgage rates that have returned to normal pre-QE levels of 6% to 7%, while CPI inflation is hovering around the same range. And they’re colliding with home prices, which have skyrocketed under the Fed’s quantitative easing and interest rate suppression.

And so home prices continued to fall, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index for “January” — which is a three-month moving average of home sales publicly recorded in November, December and January, reflecting deals primarily made from October through December.

On a monthly basis, today’s Case-Shiller index of single-family home prices fell in 19 of the 20 metros it covers. Miami was the only exception, where the index was essentially flat. The 10 biggest dips by month occurred in:

1. Las Vegas: -1.4%
2. San Francisco Bay Area: -1.3%
3. Seattle: -1.4%
4. Phoenix: -1.2%
5. Dallas: -0.9%
6. Denver: -0.9%
7. Chicago: -0.5%
8. Portland: -0.7%
9. Tampa: -0.7%
10. Washington DC: -0.7%

Prices have fallen the most from their respective highs (from May to July 2022) in these metros:

• San Francisco Bay Area: -17.1%
• Seattle: -16.3%
• San Diego: -11.5%
• Phoenix: -10.5%
• Las Vegas: -10.1%
• Denver: -9.5%
• Portland: -8.6%
• Dallas: -8.5%
• Los Angeles: -8.3%
• Boston: -5.7%

Cheaper year-on-year now in four of the 20 subways:

• San Francisco Bay Area: -7.6%
• Seattle: -5.1%
• San Diego: -1.4%
• Portland: -0.5%

Down faster than up is a rare event in real estate markets, but it’s happening in the San Francisco Bay Area, where prices have fallen faster in the eight months since the peak than in the eight months before the peak. The Seattle and Las Vegas subways came close (percentages from and to the top):

• San Francisco Bay Area, May peak: -17.1%; +15.7%.
• Seattle, May peak: -16.3%; +19.7%.
• Las Vegas, July peak: -10.2%; +11.6%.

Methodology. The Case-Shiller Index uses the “sales pair” method and compares sales in the current month to sales of the same homes earlier. Price changes are weighted according to how long ago pre-sales were, and adjustments are made for DIY and other factors (Methodology). This “selling pair” method makes the Case-Shiller Index a more reliable indicator than median price indices, but it lags months behind.

San Francisco Bay The housing market is being impacted not only by mortgage rates but also by the stock market — particularly by IPOs and SPACs, which have largely collapsed, and by the tech and social media giants now laying off high-paying workers. But these home prices released today are based on completed sales in January and earlier, so the recent fireworks are still not reflected. That’s coming.

The Case-Shiller Index for “San Francisco” covers five counties in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area: San Francisco, part of Silicon Valley, part of the East Bay, and part of the North Bay.

• Month to month: -1.3%.
• From the peak in May: -17.1%.
• YoY: -7.6%.
• Lowest reading since May 2021.

Seattle Subway:

• Month to month: -1.4%.
• From the peak in May: -16.3%.
• YoY: -5.1%.
• Lowest reading since September 2021.

San Diego Subway:

• Month by month: -0.4%.
• From the peak in May: -11.5%.
• YoY: -1.4%.
• Lowest reading since January 2022.

Metro Phoenix:

• Month to month: -1.2%.
• From June peak: -10.5%.
• Year over year: flat
• Lowest reading since January 2022.

Las Vegas Subway:

• Month to month: -1.4%.
• From July peak: -10.1%.
• YoY: +0.4%
• Lowest reading since January 2022

Denver Subway:

• Month to month: -0.9%.
• From the peak in May: -9.5%.
• Year-on-year: +1.0%.
• Lowest reading since January 2022.

Portland Subway:

• Month to month: -0.7%.
• From the peak in May: -8.6%.
• YoY: -0.5%.
• Lowest reading since December 2021.

Dallas Subway:

• Month to month: -0.9%.
• From June peak: -8.5%.
• Year over year: +5.0%

Los Angeles Subway:

• Month by month: -0.2%.
• From the peak in May: -8.3%.
• YoY: +0.9%.
• Lowest reading since January 2022.

Boston subway:

• Month by month: -0.3%.
• From June peak: -5.7%.
• YoY: +4.2%

Washington DC Subway:

• Month to month: -0.7%.
• From June peak: -5.0%.
• YoY: +2.4%

Tampa Subway:

• Month to month: -0.7%.
• From peak in July: -4.7%
• Year over year: +10.5%

Miami Subway:

• Month-to-month: basically unchanged (less than +0.1%).
• From peak in July: -2.6%
• YoY: +13.8%

New York subway:

• Month by month: -0.4%.
• From July peak: -2.3%
• YoY: +5.2%

For the Miami Metro, the Case-Shiller Index had a value of 399 points in January and December. The Case-Shiller indices were set at 100 for 2000. So, despite the recent drop, Miami home prices are still up 299% since 2000. This makes Miami the No. 1 in the most glorious real estate bubble in terms of price increases since 2000. Miami moved up to No. 1 because its prices have fallen less than prices in Los Angeles and San Diego, the former No. 1 at different times.

The New York Metro Index score of 270 indicates that housing price inflation has been 172% since 2000, and as crazy as that is, it ends this list of the most glorious real estate bubbles.

In the remaining six markets in the Case-Shiller Index, home prices have risen far less since 2000 and therefore do not qualify for this list. But in all of them, prices have been falling for months. Today’s Case-Shiller Index declines: Chicago (-0.5%), Charlotte (-0.3%), Minneapolis (-0.9%), Atlanta (-0.3%), Detroit (-0 .6%) and Cleveland (-0.6%). ).

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By Jonathan Brocklebank for the Scottish Daily Mail

13:14 February 21, 2023, updated 15:51 February 21, 2023

She was smart, articulate, and—remarkably given her youth and the sheepish tendencies of many of her peers—a woman of her own. The problem with Kate Forbes, from the perspective of her allies, was her apparent lack of ambition.

When asked in 2020 if she was interested in the top job, she replied that she was “absolutely” not.

When the question came up again the following year, she was just as firm — and more explicit about why it definitely wasn’t for her. “The more I see the job up close,” she said, “the less appealing it is.”

So that’s it. The brightest rising star in the nationalist movement had no interest in replacing Nicola Sturgeon, especially in a political arena she felt “felt more toxic than ever.”

She had just married Ali – Alasdair MacLennan, a chimney sweep ten years her senior, and was adjusting to life as a parent to his three teenage daughters.

Kate Forbes (pictured here in the Scottish Parliament building) is entirely her own wife, writes Jonathan Brocklebank

She became pregnant shortly afterwards and took maternity leave in July last year as the Scottish Government’s first cabinet secretary.

Daughter Naomi is only six months old now.

Just in case Miss Forbes still had an ounce of doubt about keeping her name out of any leadership race, Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation speech could have been almost tailor-made to sweep her away.

Life as First Minister is “relentlessly” hard, she said, and “giving absolutely everything of yourself to this job is the only way to do it”. There is “virtually no privacy” and “a First Minister is never off duty”.

And yet, in her first public statement since Miss Sturgeon resigned on Wednesday, there was a slightly different assessment of the desirability of the post the SNP leader is vacating.

“We need a leader who is bold, courageous and energetic, with a fresh face and ready for new challenges,” explained Miss Forbes in a slick video posted to social media.

“I am that leader.”

Whether the Dingwall-born former chartered accountant is a leader at all remains to be seen. But it’s already emerging that she’s the candidate who will represent the biggest cultural shift since the Sturgeon era.

The pair are far from each other on almost everything except the independence goal itself. Regarding abortion, one of them is pro-choice, the other pro-life. One is for gender reform, the other against. One is a bright social progressive, the other a social conservative. One speaks of hating the Tories and the other of loving Jesus.

One is a lowland city dweller with an equally compact inner-city constituency, the other a highland countryman whose territory spans thousands of square miles.

If Humza Yousaf considers herself Nicola Sturgeon’s continuity candidate, Miss Forbes is certainly the screeching halt in her predecessor’s direction of travel. The gaping chasm between them is the fault line that runs right through their group.

In short, the newest entrant to the leadership race is the Sturgeonistas’ worst nightmare. Would she overthrow the party to the right? Break Parliament from its commitments to gender reform? Maybe even work constructively with the Tories in Westminster?

Hear the SNP’s obviously nervous Mhairi Black about the prospect of a new party leader who deviates from the hard left’s agenda of the last eight years: “Any attempt to move to the right would destroy the main motivation for many activists, the doors open,” she called.

“If you take that reason away, you won’t find anyone under the age of 35 willing to deliver your leaflets very quickly.”

Well, Miss Forbes is 32 – and handing out leaflets is where it all started for her at SNP.

When she first began helping with local party campaigns, she had spent several of her childhood years in India, where her parents were missionaries.

Fluent in Gaelic and a member of the Free Church of Scotland, she made no attempt to downplay her from the start of her political journey.

“To be honest, I believe in the person of Jesus Christ,” she explained in 2021. “I believe that he died for me, he saved me and that my calling is to serve and love him and me to serve and love his neighbors with all your heart and soul and mind and strength. Politics will pass. I am a person before I became a politician and that person will continue to believe that I am made in the image of God.’

In a party whose statements by members often appear interchangeable, this was anything but usual.

This politician could obviously imagine things that were more fundamental to her than independence.

From Dingwall Academy she went not to a Scottish university, as aspiring SNP politicians almost always do, but to Cambridge University to study history.

The newest entrant to the race for the lead is the Sturgeonistas’ worst nightmare

Upon returning to Scotland, she completed an MSc at the University of Edinburgh in diaspora and migration history – subjects dear to her heart after learning how the Highland Clearances drove her ancestors from the Applecross Peninsula in Wester Ross.

She later studied to be an accountant and spent two years with banking giant Barclays.

She then became an assistant to MSP David Thomson before – almost by accident – at the age of just 26 she landed on the spot he vacated in 2016.

Despite many urging her to run, she said, “I looked at myself and thought, ‘Too young, too immature, too little life experience’.”

The fact that she was back in her childhood bedroom at the family home in Dingwall only seemed to underscore her youth.

But she prevailed, increasing the SNP’s majority in the constituency of Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch – and she remained in the family home for months after her election.

Her real coming of age in politics, however, came at age 29, when she was asked at the very last minute to deliver the SNP budget after Treasury Secretary Derek Mackay, it turned out, resigned out of favor, according to News to a Teenage Schoolboy.

It seemed like an impossible question. It was 7 a.m. on the day of the testimony when the call came from Miss Sturgeon’s office. Miss Forbes had to go through 283 pages of budget plans before she could deliver it.

She recalled, “In that moment, you don’t have the luxury of thinking too hard about what you’re asking of you, you just do it.” And she did it with more aplomb than the shamed Mr. Mackay had ever mustered.

From that day on she was traded as a possible successor to Miss Sturgeon. In fact, the party leader is said to have privately admitted that of all the possible candidates for her successor, Miss Forbes was the most talented.

Less than two weeks after taking office, she was appointed Treasury Secretary, becoming the youngest person ever appointed to the role and the first cabinet secretary born in the 1990s.

However, the intervention that Miss Forbes made last year was less remembered.

She was one of three government ministers to sign a letter raising concerns about the potential impact on women of allowing people to self-identify their gender and urging the Scottish Government to delay its controversial gender reforms .

Ash Regan, who is also challenging for the SNP leadership, was another.

In January last year, Miss Forbes confirmed that her position on the matter was unchanged and expressed fears that the Gender Recognition Reform Act (Scotland) could be a “bad law”.

If not for her maternity leave, she would have had to either vote for this “bad law” or leave her government post, as Miss Regan did last year.

Perhaps, by Miss Sturgeon’s reckoning, that same maternity leave would put Miss Forbes out of the leadership race if she snapped it up fast enough.

If that was the plan, it surely failed.

The next-generation ‘fresh’ candidate has Bute House in her sights – and should she get there, her predecessor’s legacy could be the first to be shredded.

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