Across the country, the nation’s largest cities have been losing residents, a trend partially fueled by a loosening of in-office work requirements and partially due to rising housing costs. But San Antonio is an exception.

Among the 10 largest cities in the country, San Antonio is one of three that has actually seen population growth since 2020.

Other cities in the San Antonio and Austin metro areas — including New Braunfels, Kyle and  Georgetown — have also experienced swift population growth, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The population has grown by about 14 percent in Georgetown, nearly 11 percent  in Kyle and 6 percent in New Braunfels between July 2021 and July 2022.

In addition to collecting Americans’ taxes, the IRS collects the most detailed information on where Americans are moving. The numbers take some time to come out — we are just getting statistics for 2021 — but they are a treasure trove of data. The information is based on the reported mailing addresses on tax returns filed to the IRS in 2020 and 2021. By looking at year-to-year changes to a filer’s address, the IRS determines whether or not they moved. The agency then publishes data on the total number of movers between any two counties and their total incomes.

The numbers show that many people moved to suburbs not far from their previous home. But other less-common destinations saw spikes in inbound migration during the first year of the pandemic, with some counties seeing more than twice as many people move in than in previous years.

Former Bexar County residents mostly stayed in Texas, and about 6 percent who did leave the county — just above 5,000 people — moved right next door to Guadalupe County. Another group of about 5,000 former residents moved to Comal County.

The traffic wasn’t just from Bexar County to Guadalupe County. More people moved from Guadalupe County to Bexar County than any other single location, according to the IRS data.

Counties that are home to other large cities in Texas, including Houston, Austin and El Paso, accounted for a combined total of 7,186 new Bexar County residents.

El Paso County in Colorado, which is home to Colorado Springs, was the most popular destination for Bexar County emigrants who moved outside of Texas.

Curious about where people from your county moved to? Search for your county in the interactive below to see the most common origins and destinations for people who moved in and out of your county between 2020 and 2021.

More than half  of Texas’ 254 counties saw stronger growth in residential populations during 2020-21 when compared with pre-pandemic migration trends.

For instance, Comal County added 11 percent more new residents during 2020-21 compared to the yearly average of the county’s immigrants between 2015 and 2020.

While most counties had a higher number of new residents, about 27 percent  of Texas counties had increased numbers of people leaving the respective county.

That said, 48 counties — about 20 percent of the state — had an increase in both inbound and outbound migration. Blanco County had a 46 percent increase in the number of new residents compared to the yearly average between 2015 and 2020. But the county also had a 20 percent increase in the number of people leaving.

In addition to migration data, the IRS also publishes the reported total income of people moving between counties. Using this information, we calculated the net income change for each county — the difference in total income of people moving in and those moving out. We also calculated the average household income of movers by dividing the total income by the number of filed tax returns per county.

Net income changes largely follow net migration trends. Counties with net population increases in 2020-21 typically gained income, while counties with overall population declines generally lost income. For instance, New York County’s population fell by 63,000 people in 2020-21, resulting in a net income loss of $16.5 billion. Meanwhile, Palm Beach County in Florida had 12,000 more people enter than leave the county and an overall income gain of $7 billion.

Travis County, Texas is an exception to the rule. Despite a population decline of 8,000 people, those who moved to Travis reported higher incomes ($6.5 billion in total) than those who left ($4.7 billion) — a difference of $1.8 billion. On average, households that moved to the county reported incomes of $120,000, while those that left reported $86,000.

About 70 households moved from Bexar County to Palm Beach County in Florida, taking with them an average annual income of about $160,000 each.

While those households had the highest average income of Bexar County emigrants, hundreds of higher-income Texans remained in state. About 1,000 former Bexar County households with an average income of $130,000 moved to Kendall County, just north of San Antonio. Another 200 with the same average income moved to Kerr County, just northwest of Kendall County.

Former Bexar County households with lower incomes also stayed in Texas. Specifically about 500 moved to Wilacy, Bee, Walker, Maverick, Liberty, DeWitt and Karnes counties. The average annual incomes of those households were $34,000 or less.

People from outside of Texas did bring their wealth to Bexar County. About 43 households came from San Mateo County, California, just south of San Francisco. These households had an average annual income of $260,000.

King County, Washington, home to Seattle, and San Francisco and Santa Clara counties in California had nearly 500 households move to the San Antonio area, bringing with them between $140,000 and $180,000 in average annual incomes.

Lower-income families also came from California. Specifically, 26 households with an average income of $25,000 moved from Merced, a county in the middle of the state.

It’s important to note that the IRS data provides only the total income, so it is possible that some of the outliers are driven by one particularly higher-income of lower-income household moving from one county to another. We’ve included only cases where at least 50 households moved between counties to account for that, but a very rich or poor family still might skew the results.

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Courtesy Photo / H-E-B

H-E-B is based in San Antonio.

Home management platform Thumbtack has taken the leap into the retail space via a new partnership with beloved San Antonio-based grocery giant H-E-B, Supermarket News reports.

The platform — which thousands of local service professionals, from painters and plumbers to photographers use to grow their client base — has rolled out branded displays throughout more than 300 H-E-B stores across Texas, the industry site reports. Each display bears a QR code that shoppers can use to access local pet service providers that offer dog walking, grooming, pet sitting and training.

In addition to launching pet services, Thumbtack is also offering its On-Demand feature in select stores. This allows folks to locate and hire local handyman, lawn care and cleaning pros at a 10% discount. 

This is the app’s first move into physical retail.

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The cities with the most emigrants were Los Angeles, followed by the San Francisco area and Chicago.

As San Antonio grows more crowded due to the influx of newcomers, brace yourself: more are coming. and more people are on the way

According to a recent study by storage and moving company PODS, San Antonio is the #14 relocation destination in the United States. Overall, three Texas cities, including Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston, made the company’s top 15.

Interestingly, Austin — once a hotspot for moving — didn’t make the list.

PODS analyzed its consumer movements and collected data on where and from where customers were moving to compile a list.

According to PODS, these are the 15 largest cities people will be moving to in 2023.

The resort town of Myrtle Beach in South Carolina took first place on the PODS list, followed by Sarasota and Orlando, both in Florida.

“The economy appears to be the biggest factor influencing consumers’ relocation decisions, with lower tax rates, warmer weather and more affordable house prices being the main drivers behind consumer decisions,” the report said.

A key difference in consumer trends between this year and last year is the dwindling importance of remote work, the study also notes.

Cities with higher crime rates, turbulent weather and higher living costs continued to see population declines, with Los Angeles, the San Francisco Bay Area and Chicago the biggest losers, according to the PODS data.

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Ace Hardware Corp. won its first court battle with a San Antonio handyman who had sued the retail chain for trademark infringement.

State District Judge Karen Pozza ruled Friday that Ace Hardware may use the Ace Hardware Handyman Services name to advertise its startup repair, maintenance and improvement services company in Bexar and the surrounding counties.

San Antonio handyman John Allen, who owns Ace Handyman Services Inc., rejected the name on the grounds that it was too similar to his company name.

“I think Ace Hardware Handyman Services is fine,” Pozza said of granting the request. She did not elaborate on her decision.

On ExpressNews.com: Ace Hardware gets in trouble with a San Antonio handyman

Last summer, Illinois-based Ace Hardware completed the acquisition of Handyman Matters, a home improvement franchisor. This month, Ace Hardware rebranded the “Ace Handyman Services” franchise across the country.

However, shortly before the transition, San Antonio’s Ace Handyman Services sued Ace Hardware and obtained an injunction preventing the chain from using the name “Ace Handyman Services or a confusingly similar trademark” in Bexar and the seven adjacent counties.

As a result, the two San Antonio-area franchisees in Ace Hardware’s Ace Handyman Services network are not identified on a website that lists 57 other franchisees in 29 states.

Allen, 50, who founded his company in 2015, was visibly disappointed by Pozza’s verdict. His attorney, Nick Guinn, declined to comment after the hearing and did not respond to an email Monday.

“Trademark infringement depends heavily on whether there is likelihood of confusion,” Guinn told the judge. “In this particular case, we have identical brands. Not just similar brands, but identical brands. Ace Handyman Services, Ace Handyman Services. The services are identical.”

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A restraining order hearing was scheduled for Friday to consider whether the restraining order should remain in effect substantially pending the outcome of a trial.

However, prior to Friday’s court hearing, Ace Hardware filed a motion to have the restraining order dismissed and the restraining order hearing postponed to a later date.

The TRO remains in effect and the restraining order has been reset for April 17.

Arthur Gollwitzer III, an Austin attorney representing Ace Hardware and its two local Handyman franchisees, argued that there is no evidence of confusion with Allen’s Ace Handyman Services because the local franchisees used the Ace Handyman Services name, the Ace Hardware used in other areas have not adopted.

It is clear, however, that Ace Hardware ultimately wants to use the name Ace Handyman Services here.

“Every day this case goes on … (the defendants) suffer various types of harm,” Gollwitzer said in court. “The local (franchisees) are small businesses, just like the plaintiff. You will be excluded from receiving endorsements from the Ace Hardware website. You are barred from using any online appointment service and business management services.

“We are locked out of Bexar County pending resolution of this matter,” he added. “To move forward with a strategy in the rest of the country but not here also comes at a cost.”

Patrick Danner is a San Antonio-based editor specializing in banking and civil courts. Read it on our free website, mySA.com, and on our subscriber website, ExpressNews.com. | pdanner@express-news.net | Twitter: @AlamoPD

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Leaders at Joint Base San Antonio, in Texas, are moving about 150 personnel from the base’s Liberty Barracks after legionella, a bacteria known to cause a serious type of pneumonia called Legionnaire’s Disease, was discovered in the water system, according to a statement from the base.

The service members at Liberty Barracks are all temporary residents undergoing treatment at Brooke Army Medical Center. Each service member is being moved to different dorms and barracks based on their individual needs. Meanwhile, Liberty Barracks will undergo a process called “super-chlorination,” according to the statement.

After 72 hours, the water will be tested again to look for legionella or residual chlorine in the plumbing system. There have been no known cases of Legionnaire’s Disease or other legionella-based infections among residents or staff at Liberty Barracks, according to the statement.

Just last year, Liberty Barracks, which houses wounded and injured service members as they receive treatment, was evacuated due to legionella found in the plumbing. The building has gone through the process of super-chlorination and regular testing since then.

Liberty Barracks, a 216,000-square-foot facility, is capable of housing 360 service members.

“As of the last few months, we have been fortunate to have significantly fewer service members needing the care that Liberty Barracks was designed to support,” Brig. Gen. Russell Driggers, the Joint Base San Antonio and 502d Air Base Wing commander, said in the statement.

“A significant portion of the facility, therefore, has been unoccupied. Water in the plumbing for these unoccupied rooms can sit stagnant, providing a breeding ground for bacteria like legionella,” Driggers added.

According to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, legionella can be found in fresh water environments, such as lakes and streams. The bacteria presents a problem, however, when it spreads into human-made water systems, causing Legionnaires Disease.

Zamone “Z” Perez is an editorial fellow at Defense News and Military Times. He previously worked at Foreign Policy and Ufahamu Africa, where he helped produce podcasts. He is a graduate of Northwestern University, where he researched humanitarian intervention and atrocity prevention in his thesis. He can be found on Twitter @zamoneperez.

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A moving company released some data that showed how more people are moving to San Antonio, Dallas, and Houston than they are to Austin. PODS Moving & Storage analyzed the top 20 cities where people are moving to and from and looked at housing market trends for its report published last weekend.

From January 2021 through March 2022, the Dallas-Fort Worth area ranked second on the list of the cities with the most growth. Houston landed at No. 12 with San Antonio right behind at 13, respectively. Austin was listed at No. 16 out of 20. Sarasota, Florida took first place.

PODS did not include data on the number of people moving to and from the respective cities.

The report also revealed which cities had the highest move-out numbers in the same time frame. California is home to three of the top 10 cities with the highest exodus of residents in 2021 and so far in 2022. In fact, the top two spots on the list are both in California (Los Angeles and the San Francisco area) and, together , sporting a total loss that’s nearly equal to the loss from the eight other cities on the list combined.

No Texas cities were listed on the highest move-out ranking.

According to the report, the cities on the ranking are for major industry employers, from technology to politics. Employers deciding to permanently adopt working remote policies may be one catalyst for the high number of moves out of these cities.

While Austin isn’t leading in the move-in ranking, celebrities are certainly moving to the city. In April, Dirt.com revealed how Oscar-winning movie star Emma Stone purchased a home in Central Austin. Actor James Marsden, known for his role as Scott Summers/Cyclops in the X-Men franchise, also paid around $1.8 million for a five-bedroom, 5,160-square-foot house in the Commons Ford area in Austin.

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Ace is the place with the helpful hardware folks. Now, it also wants to be known as the place to go for handyman services.

That’s not going over well with a San Antonio businessman who’s been offering home-repair services under the name Ace Handyman Services for 4½ years.

John Allen’s Ace Handyman Services Inc. this week sued Ace Hardware Corp. to stop the retailer from using the name Ace Handyman Services in Bexar and surrounding counties for a new franchise business offering home repairs, maintenance and improvement services.

“We have built a strong reputation for high-quality work and service,” Allen, 50, said Thursday. “If Ace Hardware were to start using the name ‘Ace’ for the same services we provide, it would cause serious confusion for our existing customers and potential customers.”

That would run Allen out of business, his suit adds.

On ExpressNews.com: A San Antonio man sue HEB after cashier allegedly whacks him with cucumber

A representative for Ace Hardware, a retailer-owned cooperative based in Oak Brook, Ill., said in an email the company doesn’t comment on pending litigation. The company, with more than 5,300 hardware stores in 70 countries, generated $6.1 billion in revenue last year.

Ace Hardware jumped into the home repair and improvement business in September when it acquired Handyman Matters, a Denver-based franchise that handles homeowners’ to-do lists and larger projects. Handyman Matters had 56 franchisees employing about 250 people in 23 states.

Two of the franchisees operate in the San Antonio area, according to Allen’s lawsuit. They’re also defendants in his complaint.

At the time of the deal, Ace Hardware announced it would change Handyman Matters’ name to Ace Handyman Services — the same name as Allen’s business.

The re-branding was expected to be completed this quarter. San Antonio trademark and patent lawyer Ted Lee, who represents Allen, said he understood the switch takes effect Monday.

Ace Hardware is following in the footsteps of larger competitors in offering home repair and home improvement services.

Home Depot and Lowe’s each use independent contractors to offer a range of home services. In its 2018 annual report, Home Depot attributed an uptick in demand for installation services to shifting demographics, including “baby boomer customers who may have historically been DIY customers but who are now looking for someone to complete a project for them.”

Amazon is tapping into the market, too. The company rolled out a program in 2015 that connects customers with professionals who can put together furniture, install ceiling fans and replace light fixtures. Online marketplaces such as Thumbtack, TaskRabbit and Handy have also developed a following.

On Monday, simultaneously with filing the lawsuit, Allen’s lawyers obtained a temporary restraining order against Ace Hardware and the San Antonio franchisees. They are barred from using the mark Ace Handyman Services in Bexar and seven adjacent counties under an order signed by state District Judge Norma Gonzales in San Antonio.

The judge issued the order “ex parte,” meaning lawyers for Ace Hardware were not present to argue against it. A hearing on a temporary injunction is set for next week.

The suit also seeks unspecified actual and punitive damages.

On ExpressNews.com: San Antonio Ferrari dealership employee ‘totaled’ $240K Spider while ‘hot-rodding’ around town, suit says

Lee said use of the word “Ace” in connection with a home repair and improvement business would create an issue locally because of Allen’s use.

“We wouldn’t have the right to prevent anybody from using ‘Ace’ for all kinds of different things,” Lee added. “But when they come into our trade territory, with the same name, for the same services that we’re offering, there’s a problem.”

The lawsuit describes Allen as a disabled veteran. He served in the Marine Corps from 1988 to 1991. He sustained a neck injury during aerial gunner training in a helicopter and subsequently was discharged as a result of the injury, he said. A bulging disk causes nerve issues in his neck and arms, and he routinely suffers migraine headaches, he said.

Allen’s business has one employee and three contractors.

After Ace Hardware acquired Handyman Matters, it filed five trademark applications with the intent to use Ace Handyman Services and other names.

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About three weeks ago, the lawsuit says, Allen visited one of the local Handyman Matters franchises. A representative said he had contacted Handyman Matters corporate offices to inform them that an Ace Handyman Services already operated in San Antonio.

The representative was told “not to worry about it. Handyman Matter would handle it,” the suit says.

Allen’s claims in the lawsuit are for common law trademark infringement and unfair competition.

Staff writer Madison Iszler contributed to this report.

Patrick Danner is a San Antonio-based staff writer covering banking and civil courts. Read him on our free site, mySA.com, and on our subscriber site, ExpressNews.com. | pdanner@express-news.net | Twitter: @AlamoPD

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1a. I believe in second chances. And third and fourth chances. Folks will argue that playing in the NFL is a privilege and not a right, but for some players it is their only marketable skill; taking it away indefinitely is draconian (not to mention, the kind of power Roger Goodell should not—and, legally, cannot—exercise). People change, especially in their 20s and 30s, and every one of them deserves a pathway to redemption.

However, the pathway must involve some baseline effort at rehabilitation. Right? A hint of contrition? Even just a show that he is making the slightest effort to maybe think about possibly making amends for his actions? With that in mind: Did Antonio Brown do that?

You could do some mental gymnastics and convince yourself he did the absolute bare minimum. There were some apologies—under a markedly different writing style than we usually get from him—posted on his social media accounts. He took cuts at a few softballs last winter and dispensed the type of reflexive, mealy-mouthed, non-specific apology I wouldn’t accept from my preschooler. And when it came to his abhorrent treatment of women, he played the victim card. I mean, this is an actual quote from February:

“I feel like I never really got in a conflict with no woman. I just feel like I’m a target so, anybody can come against me and say anything and I’m going to have to face it. There’s no support, there’s no egos, there’s no rules in it, anyone can come after me for anything. No proof or whatever. ‘He said, she’s saying.’ The media will run with it, so even if I’m not guilty, I already guilty because they already wrote it, put it on TV and put that in people minds. So for me to have to sit here and hear those the allegations of me is just unfair to me every time.”

Brown’s mistreatment of women has been chronicled in police reports, sometimes on his own social media accounts and in the accounts of accusers. If he was referring to our source who, in September 2019, accused Brown of sexual misconduct, a quick refresher: She did not come to us—we found her. Her story and her background held up against exhaustive vetting by our team. And despite what you might have heard on sports radio or seen on social media from the kind of people who have yet to realize you can breathe through your nose, at no point did she ever give an indication that there was financial motivation.

Each of us are, in the simplest terms, the sum of our actions, and our actions are shaped by our circumstances. After spending the summer of 2019 researching Brown’s behavior, I write this with a fair amount of confidence: Superstardom on the football field shaped Antonio Brown, and not in a good way. It made him feel like others—viewed as being beneath his station as a star athlete—could be treated however he saw fit, without consequence. Brown was surrounded by the typical variety of toadies and stooges who encouraged that kind of behavior, but he has also been enabled by coaches and teammates as well. Tom Brady is now chief among them.

Over the past 13 months, Tom Brady has floated the notion that he and his football team’s culture is what Brown needs—apparently ignoring the fact that, while a teammate of Brady’s, Brown saw fit to send threatening texts to a credible accuser. For Brown, football isn’t the solution, it’s part of the problem.

This isn’t about rehabilitating Antonio Brown as a man, because he’s never shown even the slightest interest in being rehabilitated. (And if Brady is interested in helping troubled players, there are many who are more deserving than Brown.) No, this is the opposite of rehabilitation: It reinforces that as long as the greatest receiver of this generation is still in his prime, there are no consequences, especially when it comes to people who don’t have a role in winning football games. And Brady will always be there to fight those consequences—every single one—because there is no greater calling in life than maximizing your chance to win football games.

We can only hope we’ve arrived at the final act of this farce. It will further cement the legacy of Tom Brady the player as a guy who won a lot of football games. And it will further cement the legacy of Tom Brady the man as a guy who won a lot of football games.

1b. Also, congratulations to Russell Wilson, Pete Carroll and the Seahawks organization for lowering themselves into the sewer and not even coming away with their man.

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Whatever. Here’s some analysis of the week’s games and news interspersed with poop jokes…

USA Today Photos (5)

2. Anyone with optic nerves that transmit images to their brain knows that the Steelers defense poses a stiff test for the Titans. But what’s even more worrisome for Tennessee is that this Steelers defense is almost custom-built to deal with their offense.

Pittsburgh has the best run defense in football by just about any metric, but I want to focus in on its defensive line Stuff Percentage (a league-leading 32% according to Football Outsiders) and the fact that Vince Williams—maybe the closest thing to a “weak link” in its defensive front—leads the NFL in tackles for loss (10) while T.J. Watt is tied for second (9) and even slot corner Mike Hilton (5) is top-20. The book on Derrick Henry is that, while he’s superhuman once he gets to the second level, he’s a mere mortal around and behind the line of scrimmage. The Steelers often don’t allow backs to get to the second level, and while I don’t like touting the vague notion of “physicality,” there’s no doubt that the Steelers’ cast of front-seven characters are capable of handling Henry. And, yes, Devin Bush is out, but so is Taylor Lewan, which means Bud Dupree will get to pick on Ty Sambrailo, for whom “functional strength” has been an issue throughout his career (I write while struggling to summon the strength to get off my couch and get more candy corn).

Play-action is the other staple of the Titans offense—one very much aided by the fact that linebackers often get sucked up more than they normally would because everyone is trying to get to Henry before he gets a head of steam. But playing behind-schedule is an issue for anyone’s play-action offense. The average second-down distance for Pittsburgh’s opponents this year has been 9.22 yards, which is a number that has no right existing outside a science-fiction short story about a dystopian future where footballs have been replaced by 600-pound anvils. If the Titans find themselves in a lot of second- or third-and-long, that play-action game becomes less effective. (And we haven’t mentioned the steady diet of Minkah Fitzpatrick in disguised robber coverages the Titans are likely to see.)

Look at what happened to Cleveland against the Steelers last week. The Browns’ system is loosely similar to Tennessee’s (zone running and play-action off it). But with the Steelers’ dominant run defense mitigating that play-action game, Cleveland was utterly doomed. And you could argue that the Browns are better than Tennessee at every offensive position—except quarterback.

And with that, I arrive at the core point of this meandering take. Ryan Tannehill might not be an MVP-type quarterback (yes, I’ve seen the stats). But since arriving in Nashville, he has been an exceptionally good system quarterback who’s an exceptionally good fit in an exceptionally good system. What he hasn’t been is a guy who’s going to make plays off-schedule and have a lot of success on third-and-long. So far this season, the Titans rank 26th in third-and-long (defined as 6-plus yards to gain) at 21.7%. They were 22nd (26.5%) after Tannehill took over as the starter last year.

Carson Wentz and Mayfield are the last two quarterbacks Pittsburgh faced. Wentz, for all the Josh Allen-esque mistakes he’ll make late in the down, also has the ability to create Josh Allen-esque magic. The Eagles went 5-for-7 on third-and-long in Pittsburgh, which is how they put up 29 points and hung around, and it’s a big reason why the Steelers still rank near the bottom of the league in third-and-long defense (28th, at 38.9% allowed). Mayfield, on the other hand, hasn’t shown the ability to make out-of-structure plays this season, and didn’t do so in Pittsburgh, which is why that game was not competitive.

When Tannehill played in Miami, the later in the down it got, the worse off he was. In Tennessee, he’s rarely had to make plays out-of-structure. He’s a 57.0% passer on third-and-long since becoming the Titans starter, which is actually slightly lower than the mark he posted in Miami (57.4%). Sunday is shaping up to be a week where he’s going to have to make a handful of plays outside of the system. Whether or not he rises to the occasion will determine which of these teams stays undefeated.

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3. It seems the Dolphins had circled the bye week for promoting Tua Tagovailoa all along, but doing it now makes plenty of sense. The biggest deterrent to throwing a young quarterback into the fire is an offensive line that can’t protect him—Miami couldn’t do this a year ago. But their young offensive line has improved immensely, to the point that it’s league-average and trending up.

The other factor is that, as good as Ryan Fitzpatrick has been in 2020, they know it’s not going to last for 16 games. Because it’s never lasted for 16 games. Sometimes when you get on a hot streak at the craps table, you just have to walk away.

You likely already know Fitzpatrick’s origin story—no formal education, worked as a chimney sweep, radioactive squirrel bites him and he gains the power to ace the Wonderlic, Rams draft him, etc. etc. etc. He took the demotion as graciously as possible, and mentioned he might have made his final start, which might be true. But, while he’s 38 in November, he has for the most part maintained the physical traits he had when he entered the league. He can move an offense as well as any backup in football, and it seems he did just fine in the mentor role with Tua. Most likely, he bought himself at least one more chance to be someone’s bridge quarterback.

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4. Not sure why, but I’ve been thinking about this clip a lot this weekend:

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5. We’re all furrowing our brows in a vain attempt to understand the Bears’ 5–1 record. We know luck—the same kind of pure, stupid luck that shines on a team or two every season—has something to do with it, and the Vaudevillian nature of their opponents’ fourth-quarter gaffes draws the eye to late-game scenarios. But hey, the points in the first three quarters count the same as the ones in the fourth quarter.

If you really want to understand the one fluke constant with Chicago, look at its outlier defensive performance in the red zone. Red-zone performance on both sides of the ball tends to fluctuate wildly year to year, due to the small sample size and the unique nature of the tight field. To credit the Bears’ red-zone success to some kind of otherworldly situational football play, you’d also be arguing that the Ravens (fourth-worst red-zone defense in 2020) and Titans (third-worst) are bad situational defenses. Or that the Packers were a great situational defense last year (fourth-best red-zone defense) but, with the same staff and roster, forgot how to play situational defense this year (second-worst red-zone defense).

The Bears are allowing a league-leading 36.4% touchdown percentage—they allowed a TD rate over 50% each of the past two seasons, and were 48% or higher each of the last eight years. Only the Cardinals are allowing fewer points per red-zone trip (4.0). And since they’ve played 22 red-zone possessions, if Chicago’s 4.14 number were closer to the league-average (5.13), you’d be talking about a three-point increase in points-per-game allowed.

However, last week’s win in Carolina was at least a blueprint of how they should be expected to win games: They had constant pressure on Teddy Bridgewater, resulting in four sacks and three takeaways (though one was when Panthers RB Mike Davis forgot he was carrying a football in the open field).

The difference between the 2018 and ’19 Bears was takeaways. They led the league in ’18 (36) but fell to 22nd last season, as the number was almost halved (19). Part of that is luck. Part of it was a down year for Khalil Mack, who very much looks like his all-world self again in 2020. The takeaways weren’t coming during the 4-1 start—just five over those first five games—but pressure creates turnovers, and the pressure has been there this season. A multi-takeaway outing like the one in Charlotte shouldn’t be an outlier.

No matter how good your defense is, you’re walking a tightrope when your offense is this level of inept. However, the Bears could go 4–6 from here on out and still make the playoffs—a 5–5 finish would virtually guarantee postseason football. And once they’re in the tournament, with this defense and with a quarterback with a history of getting very hot in January, anything goes.

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6a. The funny thing about Yannick Ngakoue joining the Ravens is that Baltimore has consistently used overload, fire-zone blitzes to generate pressure in order to make up for the fact that they don’t have a truly dominant edge rusher. And now, in Ngakoue, they’re adding a dominant edge rusher. Though now that I read it I guess that’s not as funny as I originally thought.

Defensive coordinator Don Martindale (or, as many call him, “Mink” Martindale, due to his fondness for the semiaquatic, carnivorous animal) now has a chance to be a little more flexible in his approach. With Ngakoue capable of creating pressure independent of scheme, they could take an approach more along the lines of what the Steelers do: blitz-happy on early downs, four-man rush in front of coverage on third down.

6b. From the Vikings’ perspective, clearly they thought they were going to make a run this year. That just isn’t the case as long as the NFL insists on setting the playoff field based on win-loss record. And considering the fact that they’re in cap heck the next two seasons, it didn’t make sense to commit to Ngakoue long-term—not only would they be paying a premium to Ngakoue, but they’d surely have to adjust Danielle Hunter’s below-market deal if they did. They didn’t get caught up in sunk-cost fallacy, so good on them.

6c. The move also suggests this might be fellow pending free agent Matt Judon’s last year in Baltimore. He’s a very good player, but probably a half-step below Ngakoue talent-wise (not to mention three years older). If Ngakoue works out—and there’s no reason to think he won’t—and gets a long-term deal, the Ravens can play their comp pick game when Judon signs elsewhere this offseason.

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7. Ladies and gentlemen . . . Pixies!

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