San Francisco Giants 2023 Participant Assessment: J.D. Davis

2023 stats: 144 G, 546 PA, 480 AB, .248/ .325/ .413 (.738 OPS), 18 HR, 69 RBI, 103 OPS+

Noteworthy: Pre-All Star Break: .800 OPS, Post- All Star Break: .649 OPS; 6 Outs Above Average (90th percentile)

Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

If you take J.D. Davis’s overall offensive stats accrued over six months from March 30th through the end of September 2023, it might be the worst offensive season of his career.

Since his breakout season with the Mets in 2019, he’s never logged a season OPS lower than .750 or an OPS+ lower than 110. Last season, his average exit velocity was in the 95th percentile, his Barrel % in the 97th, and Hard-Hit % in the 99th. Davis walloped the ball in 2022, and in 2023, he kept up appearances at least for a little while. But a .906 OPS in April dropped to an .816 OPS in May and a .749 June. The monthly splits continued their downward tumble until September when a 3-hit game in Chicago kicked off a positive final month and rescued him from an season OPS slipping into the .600s. A small victory in what was ultimately defined by average production with significant fall off in categories he generally excels in

Overall, Davis still graded above average in the Statcast categories listed above, though he weathered some significant drops. His barrel rate dipped from 16.2% to 9.6%. His Hard-Hit rate fell from an incredible 56.1% to a not-too-shabby but still significantly lower 45.2%. What is maybe the most telling is that, similar to Michael Conforto, Davis’s swing lost its lift. Somewhere on the general downgrade of the season, his average launch angle started to get pinched, going from 12.3 to 7.8 degrees. Unsurprisingly, his groundball rate climbed from 46% to 53.3% and the balls he “topped” (as in hit directly into the ground) jumped 7%. A less dynamic swing with a drop in hard-hit and barrel rate (which takes into account launch angle) explains Davis’s power suck over the season.

Conforto can point to his shoulder injury and extended recovery to explain his swing path problems—but with Davis, it might be his plate approach. He’s got easy power, and he is at his best when he is driving pitches up the middle or to right field. But of the balls Davis put in play in 2023, 38.9% were pulled to the left side of the infield, his highest rate since 2018 and a 3% increase from last year. It’s like his swing flattened out when trying to jump on the ball, rather than keeping his weight back, letting the pitch travel into the zone and getting under it. He swung and missed at slightly fewer pitches (still way too many), but it’s possible adapting his swing in those moments to make contact cost him in other ways. Maybe as the team slumped, he tried to do too much with pitches out of his swing path.

All those numbers just confirm what we already know: Davis is a guy who can get in a funk. He runs hot and he runs ice cold. Sometimes that slump lingers and really messes with him and then one day he blasts a home run over the ivy in Wrigley and everything clicks again. The high of 2019 was followed by a dip in 2020, and slow ascent out of it in 2021. Half of 2022 brought little in terms of results and then a coast-swap and uniform change meant Davis was firing on full cylinders again. Temperamental, mutable. Power and whiff come hand-in-hand.

Or did he make a deal with the baseball devil: sell some of his bat for softer hands? Could it be as simple as that spent more time on improving his defense and subsequently lost his way at the plate? I guess it’s possible? What I do know is that Davis’s skill at third base was a unexpected but needed development.

What was David Villar’s to lose at the beginning of the season became Davis’s quickly after some displays of hot corner prowess coupled with an explosive start to the season offensively. Villar’s struggles at the plate continued and was eventually sent down to Sacramento. Casey Schmitt was brought up and then sent down again after a prolonged offensive scuffle as well. Third base could’ve been a black hole for the Giants if Davis hadn’t developed into a viable defensive option. His ability to hold down the corner infield positions provided some needed stability and flexibility over the year as prospects and/or pickups played musical chairs through San Francisco’s infield.

The year snowballed into mediocrity for Davis, and the Giants’ offensive devolution in late-summer is the reason they didn’t make the playoffs. It doesn’t take much mental gymnastics to figure out where some of the blame for 2023’s disappointments lie. That being said, J.D. Davis feels like an essential part of the team moving forward.

Out of every player who donned the orange-and-black-and-Cruise-patch uni in 2023, J.D. Davis was the one who wore it the most. Davis led the club in games played and plate appearances. He logged 1,002.2 innings in the field with 915.2 at third and 87 at first with 14 reps as designated hitter. He started 114 games and completed 98 of them. The defensive inning total, games started, and complete games total are second only to Thairo Estrada. Davis’s only sojourn on the injured list came on September 28th after an awkward slide into third against San Diego. The only series he didn’t play in was the season’s last against the LA.

That kind of durability is invaluable to any club. Considering the relatively light 4.42 million price tag, what the Giants got from Davis in 2023 was a pretty good deal. Knowing what he can do with the bat and now with the glove, the projected 6.8 million Davis would get this year feels like a steal no matter what his role is, be it starting third-baseman, utility corner infielder, or occasional designated hitter. Most likely: all of the above.

I know I tend to lean positive, but I don’t think fingers-crossed or blind hope enters into it. Davis has serious upside and is a proven hitter at the big league level. We’ve seen him make adjustments before, he’ll figure out the tweaks he needs to make in order to ensure a more dynamic year at the plate.

Now with the improved defense, he’s a puzzle piece with adjustable edges—he creates options for coaches and opportunities for other players by fitting in various spots and filling a variety of roles. Every team needs someone like that, and the Giants are no exception, especially do with their infield in flux after Brandon Crawford’s departure and a bevy of internal prospects vying for innings. Casey Schmitt, Marco Luciano, David Villar—the transition to a new core (if they aren’t trade fodder) will probably have some wrinkles, but J.D. Davis will be there to help smooth out the corners in 2024.

And of course, if the wheels come off for the Giants, Davis, in his final season before Free Agency, would be a fair piece to pawn come August.

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