Progressives struggled in elections throughout the U.S. What does that imply for San Francisco?

While national experts puzzled over a dramatic shift to the right in the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey after Tuesday’s election, observers from the local races had to grapple with a more complex picture. The big cities’ progressive mayoral candidates did not do particularly well as a group, but tenant activists made big profits, and police reform efforts were by and large a wash. What this all means for San Francisco depends on your perspective.

Despite some unusual elections and the ongoing debate about what “progressive” and “moderate” really means in metropolitan politics, the mayoral candidates on the left have struggled overall.

In Seattle, the moderate Bruce Harrell is well on his way to beating the progressive M. Lorena González in a landslide. The incumbent Mayor of Minneapolis, Jacob Frey, fended off more progressive opponents in a ranked election. In Buffalo, incumbent Mayor Byron Brown is likely to win an election campaign against his socialist challenger India Walton, who previously defeated him in the Democratic primary. In New York City, Eric Adams cruised to victory against his Republican opponent after a tight Democratic primary race in which he was considered a moderate candidate.

These results weren’t exactly unexpected, says Randy Shaw, director of the Tenderloin Housing Clinic and local government observer on his Beyond Chron blog, since low-turnout elections like this are tough off-year for progressives. Nevertheless, Shaw was particularly surprised by the result in Seattle, which politically is often compared to San Francisco. “There is no way to spin this, but as a very big defeat for progressive and housing interests and workers in this election.”

There was another story in Boston, however. The progressive Michelle Wu won a major mayor’s victory there in a campaign that included an urban Green New Deal, free public transportation, and fighting for a rental price cap in Massachusetts. Right next door, Cambridge retained its “pro-housing majority” on the city council, Shaw says, adding that college town in New England appears to be heading in a direction similar to Berkeley.

Róisín Isner, who co-heads a progressive group called Daybreak Pac with former Senate candidate Jackie Fielder, says Wu’s focus on climate change helped make all the difference. “Young people really care about climate justice and they stand up for these candidates because this is our planet,” she said.

Wu’s support for increased tenant protection is following a larger trend: voters in Minneapolis and St. Paul authorized their city councils to introduce a rent cap.

The election results in Minneapolis were particularly confused. The city “went strong on rent control and also cracked down on police reform and elected the more conservative incumbent mayor,” Shaw said. The police reform measure would have dismantled the Minneapolis Police Department and replaced it with a new Department of Public Safety.

In Minneapolis and Seattle, where both widespread protests and rioting erupted following the assassination of George Floyd, “the police issue really hurt progressive interests,” Shaw said.

Police reform measures have been more successful in other cities. In Austin, voters rejected an election that would require the city to hire at least two police officers for every 1,000 residents. Cleveland voters voted to create a powerful new law enforcement agency. And in Philadelphia, progressive District Attorney Larry Krasner, who is often compared to the San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin, won re-election after a tough primary election.

While no elections were held in San Francisco on Tuesday, The City is on the brink of an exceptionally busy 2022 with up to four elections. Next year, San Francisco voters will vote against three school board members and likely against Boudin in re-election. In addition, The City is likely to see a regular and primary election to replace MP David Chiu, who has just been appointed city attorney. The best-known candidates for this election are Supervisor Matt Haney and former Supervisor David Campos, both of whom identify with the progressive wing of San Francisco politics.

With progressives facing headwinds across the country, some candidates may be more tempted to move to the middle in next year’s election. At least that’s what Campos’ political advisor Eric Jaye thinks about Haney.

“Matt Haney has made himself the candidate of the moderates. I think he made himself the developer candidate last week, ”he said, referring to Haney’s support for a 500-unit apartment complex in SoMa that was delayed by the majority of the board of directors.

Ace Smith, Haney’s political adviser, did not immediately respond to a request for comment. In a previous interview with The Examiner, Smith rejected the notion that Haney had taken the moderate route in this election, saying, “We see the race as progressive as Matt Haney … Voters will ultimately have to decide who can be shown to achieve something Has.”

Still, Jaye believes Tuesday’s election will bring lessons even to die-hard progressives. Economic issues should be at the center of the progressives’ message, rather than polarizing police and educational issues. “I don’t think the progressives should be afraid of the result (Tuesday); In fact, I think they should double their ability to speak for working voters who are increasingly disadvantaged by an economy where costs rise faster than wages. “

bschneider@sfexaminer.com

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