MLB NRFI Picks Immediately, Mannequin Predictions for Friday, June 2

We’ve been at full steam this week and with a clean throw yesterday we were able to increase our weekly record to 15-5.

Let’s wrap up successfully with a complete list of Friday games and bets.

The model

The process is relatively simple. First, I assume that the (implicit) run totals for both teams are roughly efficient throughout the game. This is the case in most cases. This saves me the trouble of predicting the total number of runs scored in the game – and allows me to focus solely on “when” and not “how many”.

Next, I created a database of pitchers’ first-time performance during the order versus their overall stats. Since the latter will presumably factor into the game total, I wanted to find out if those runs are coming early or late.

Most — but not all — MLB starters do slightly better early in games, but there is some variation in elevation. The model uses xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching) as the ERA predictor of choice.

But that’s only half the battle, the other half is made up of crimes. To do this, I looked at what percentage of a team’s total runs are produced by the top three batters in the lineup.

While a first inning run is scored, by definition it takes at least four batsmen to get on the plate, but one of the first three must actually score. The metric of choice here is wRC+, based on each team’s predicted lineup for the day.

This is somewhat of a tradeoff, as lineups (and totals) can change throughout the day, especially when key contributors miss time. However, in my experience, the inefficiency of the morning lines more than makes up for the gaps in the model.

However, be wary if Mike Trout, for example, is considered a doubt for the evening’s game.

The picks

For all of the tips below, I’ll provide the choice, best line, and threshold I would bet on. These will be published in the morning. So, if important news is published between posting and reading, be sure to take that into account.

Rather than betting on the traditional YRFI/NRFI, on rare occasions they will specifically bet on one team or the other to score a run, which is only a betting option at DraftKings as of this writing.

Because the model treats each team individually, it is sometimes assumed that a team will receive a larger percentage of run equity in the first inning than the betting lines allow for.

NRFI odds and tips for Friday 2nd June

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals NRFI: Thanks to the nine games, we have a good starting position here. However, both pitchers have solid first-in-order stats, and these teams rank 29th and 30th when it comes to the percentage of their output from the top three hitters.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates YRFI: This game has an even higher overall score at 9.5, with both teams roughly average in top 3 hitter performance. Both starters have solid first lap splits but not enough to overcome the other factors.

Colorado Rockies vs. Kansas City Royals YRFI: This is another 9.5 run total game, although there are two relatively weak offenses overall. On the plus side, both handle a relatively high proportion of their offense from the top of their respective lineups.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros NRFI: We have a strong duel here where two teams I generally prefer to bet YRFIs on against two pitchers I like to bet NRFIs on. Both Shohei Ohtani and Framber Valdez have excellent first time-through-the-order numbers and should have what it takes to deal with all the star hitters they face in the first inning.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees YRFI: Tonight in LA is Clayton Kershaw vs. Luis Severino, a match that sounds better for the NRFI on paper.

The model likes the yes-runs side, though, mostly because by this point in his career, Kershaw has become a “feeling” pitcher who’s getting into games better and better.

Severino has a 1.59 ERA in two starts, but has xFIP and SIERA scores in the mid-four range, so it could be a step backwards for him too.

Baltimore Orioles vs. San Francisco Giants YRFI: Based on the odds, this is my favorite bet tonight. I’m shocked that we’re getting plus money here as both teams are top-heavy offensive players. Also, neither pitcher is particularly dominant the first time in the sequence.

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