Evaluating the San Francisco Giants’ wants forward of the commerce deadline. Ought to they goal for a pitcher or a hitter?

I have no idea what the San Francisco Giants are up to at the close. I suspect none of us do. The team is also not in a situation where they absolutely have to do something; It’s only logical that they should. But how do you improve on a team that has the third-best record in the National League (sixth-best in MLB) as of May 1?

Based on FanGraphs-style wins over substitutes alone, the team has an 8.1 WAR and is the fifth-best pitching team in baseball since May 1, when the team turned hot. Her bullpen was the absolute best with 4 WARs on the same course. If you think they could do with tweaking some of the indicator numbers, their 0.89 HR/9 is the best #1 overall, their 2.64 BB/9 is the #1 in the NL (No. 2 in the MLB), and they’re evenly matched at a tepid 8.59 K/9 (#18) with a sport-leading groundball percentage of 48.1%.

That rate also easily exceeds the second best team at inducing groundballs (the Marlins) (46.8%) and it’s not just thanks to Logan Webb and Alex Cobb who were so impressive (with the exception of Cobb’s launch this morning in Cincinnati). but also the fourth-best defense in the Netherlands (+8.2, #9 in MLB) based on FanGraphs Defensive Runs Above Average.

These two factors in the success of the team are the formation. With 451 runs this season, the team is more or less in the middle (7th in NL, 13th in MLB). Even with the “as of May 1st” adjustment, they still rank 6th in the NL and 11th in the MLB with 324 runs scored. Worse yet, a 97 wRC+ puts them in a three-way battle with the Yankees and Phillies; an ISO of 0.144 (#25) and a BABIP batting average of 0.305, indicating Giants hitters are getting the results they deserve.

So they just need better batsmen, right? Should not be a problem. Farhan Zaidi is one of the greatest minds in professional sports. His system has managed to get Blake Sabol and Patrick Bailey up and running, they’ve already acquired and outperformed the likes of Darin Ruf, LaMonte Wade Jr. and JD Davis (at least for a while) for very little money. Adding a key club makes a lot of sense.

The problem is that even if the Giants have the smartest front office ever, they’re also competing against clubs with fairly smart front offices, and those who might not fit that description, a dozen or more contenders for one of these have players who may be willing to switch by the August 1st trading close.

Then there is the question of how long a player will actually stay on the team. The Giants will play 54 regular-season games after the deadline, almost as many games as Casey Schmitt played as a major league player prior to the start of the Reds streak. A third of the season remains. Depending on how you look at it, it’s either a significant number of games that would require a big move, or a number of games too small to warrant one.

Every decision made by the front office takes the risks into account. The Giants will almost certainly have to make a compromise to keep fans interested and to convey to their clubhouse that they believe in this year’s team. The move has to make sense – the right personality for the clubhouse has to be proportionate to the talent needed and driven by cost.

The cost… the cost…

It is logical to consider the cost of doing business in the trading market. The Giants have taken a number of actions across all regimes as of the deadline. Wheeler for Beltran didn’t end up beating the Giants — even though they ran Beltran in the offseason and could have used Wheeler during his team-control years — because they still won titles in 2012 and 2014. The mate-for-mate, Duffy-for-Moore trade, combined with relinquishing Mark Melancon when he had the chance, set the stage for the end of Bobby Evans’ baseball managerial career. The Kris Bryant deal didn’t help or hurt them much in the end, and it’s up to you how you feel about the Prelander Berroa-Donovan Walton deal.

I say all this to point out that trade deadlines are almost as much a coin toss as postseason. Brian Sabean once got Jason Schmidt for Ryan Vogelsong. Farhan Zaidi brought in JD Davis and Giants #28 contender Carson Seymour for Darin Ruf. Is there a Kris Bryant deal instead, or are we in the Carlos Beltran/Andrew McCutchen zone where the Giants will end up making a trade that will cost them dearly in the future?

It’s a big field of competition. The Braves, Phillies, Marlins, Brewers, Reds, Dodgers, Dbacks, Rangers, Astros, Twins, Orioles, Rays and Blue Jays are all tied when it comes to playoff spots, but there are also teams like the Red Sox and the Yankees, Guardians, Angels, Mariners, maybe the Cubs and maybe the Padres, all are at least still in the running for the wild card. There are over 60 games left of the season. That’s a good part of the league competing with the Giants.

It’s debatable how hot and hard teams would be for players from the A’s, Rockies and Royals – as far as there would be multiple teams that would start a bidding war – but beyond those three, the Tigers, White Sox, Mets and Cardinals, either have impact pitching or hitting that could potentially be on offer, and if fringe teams like the Mariners and Yankees (just to knock two teams out) decide to put up signs for sale, that could tip the scales as well.

Does the team see Kyle Harrison and Marco Luciano as untouchable or could it be motivated to switch one of them for the right one? What about Joey Bart (.333/.395/.538 in July) and Heliot Ramos (.341/.362/.750) – do they still have the prospect of becoming alternative trading chips?

The Giants have the financial flexibility to make a move. They’re about $18.5 million below the unofficial/official salary cap, colloquially known as the “competitive balance tax.” That puts them in a good position to take pay back to reduce potential capital, but we’ve increasingly seen teams prioritize potential capital over financial relief. Could that be different this year as regional sports network Diamond/Bally Sports’ cable deals collapse?

And above all: what would “the right one” look like? It’s obviously not just about the cost. The fit is also a pretty important part of this.

batsmen

Presumably looking for someone with twice the power and speed — on top of the team’s depressing isolated performance, it sits 29th in stolen bases (45), ahead of just Colorado.

Because of the injury situation (Thairo Estrada) and the performance situation (Schmitt, maybe JD Davis), does it have to be an infielder, or could you look for an outfielder? It’s going to be difficult because as bad as Mike Yastrzemski looked at times, he’s had a good time this season. Austin Slater is a solid draw racquet. Michael Conforto was fine. Blake Sabol isn’t available for pick just yet and I’m confident the team is committed to keeping this Rule 5 guy on the roster. You also probably don’t want to sign an infielder who could block Marco Luciano if he proves fast-moving in the Triple-A.

All of these considerations narrow the field. By mid-June, Thairo Estrada was the top second baseman in the National League. He was the team’s top positional player for most of the season. It’s always difficult to replace the best player on your team.

pitchers

I firmly believe that the team should try to get a starting player. The bullpen probably won’t be able to maintain its dominant work, but the best way to get into that future spin cycle is to slip another arm into the rotation. The eventual return of John Brebbia and Luke Jackson also reinforces the urgent need to snag another man who can pitch at least five innings a start. Sure, there’s Tristan Beck and Keaton Winn in Triple-A and the possibility of a coin toss from Kyle Harrison in September, but at this point, given their level of experience and perhaps their stage of player development, they really are just a hair’s breadth ahead of the veteran quartet of Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling Quartet; and if the Giants had a chance to pick, say, Jack Flaherty (1.5 fWAR) or Corbin Burnes (1.6 fWAR), I think each of us would pick one of the two over the other six.

I assume the likes of Anthony DeSclafani and Sean Manaea have little or almost no trade value, but we live in a world where the Darin reputation trade actually happened. Where Drew Pomeranz became a standstill helper in time and became a sales representative. Maybe some team out there really loves David Villar or Heliot Ramos, or the Giants are ready to replace Darin Ruf. Perhaps Sean Sean Manaea’s badminton efficiency boosts will wow Rays scouts.

Anything can happen, but what do you think will happen?

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