Traffic moves on US Highway 101 toward downtown San Francisco on November 27, 2019. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
SAN FRANCISCO (KRON) — San Francisco came last in a nationwide study examining why some American cities are recovering and others are dying.
“With the initial shock of the pandemic, inner cities emptied. Although life has gradually returned to the neighborhood’s malls and trade corridors, the downtown core is no longer a busy hub. This trend has led many to ask: Is this finally the death of downtown?” says the study from the Public Policy Research Center of the Institute of Governmental Studies.
A stroll through downtown San Francisco looks and feels different than it did before the COVID era. Why is it taking so long for people to return to downtown SF? IGS researchers said the city’s tech workers, tech-heavy economy and difficult long commutes were partly to blame.
(Graphic courtesy of the Institute of Governmental Studies)
“In general, jobs with a higher proportion of employment in knowledge-based industries and occupations and/or higher-paid workers are more likely to shift towards remote work. Surveys suggest this shift will be permanent for up to half of the workforce in large and congested cities (e.g. New York) or in cities driven by the tech sector (e.g. San Francisco)” wrote researchers.
Researchers measure downtown vitality using three key indicators:
- vacancies in the office
- Passenger numbers in local public transport
- retail spending
Mobile phone data with user locations offered researchers a way to directly measure inner-city activity patterns.
The analysis included data for 47 months from January 2019 to November 2022 for 62 cities with at least 350,000 residents in the United States and Canada. A recovery quotient (RQ) was calculated from this data for inner cities as well as for entire cities.
Closing of the SF Whole Foods store – just one year after opening
The study found wide disparities in the extent of recovery between cities, with activity ranging from a low of 31% of pre-pandemic levels in San Francisco to a high of 135% in Salt Lake City.
Inner cities, which will continue to struggle to recover, have a disproportionate rate of business closures, reducing demand for inner-city real estate as professional technicians stay away, the study found.
San Francisco Street transforms into the Wild West at 2am
The researchers wrote, “A specific group of inner cities — typically older, denser inner cities that rely on skilled or technical workers and are on large subways — continue to struggle to recover to pre-pandemic levels.”
To survive in the new era of hybrid and remote work, inner cities need to diversify their economic activity and land use, the researchers said. One bright spot noted in the study was the resurgence of leisure and hospitality.
The researchers wrote: “Inner cities also need to be proactive when it comes to redesigning inner cities for people. That could mean creating outdoor spaces with cultural events; rethinking roads for transit, bicycles and pedestrians; relocation of parking spaces to the outskirts of the city center; and to attract diverse demographics to visit.”
Just last week, Mayor London Breed announced her plan to revitalize downtown and reposition San Francisco as the Bay Area’s economic hub. Downtown San Francisco’s roadmap for the future focused on key priorities, including offering a clean and safe environment, fostering a resilient workforce, and attracting new industries.
The Mayor’s Office wrote, “San Francisco’s thriving office economy, prime geographic location, rich history, and world-renowned culinary, cultural, and entertainment offerings drew over a million daily visitors to downtown prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.”
To position San Francisco for the future, the Mayor’s Office pledged to advance policies that respond to emerging economic trends and challenges, while continuing to invest in the strengths and assets that are the “core pillars of San Francisco’s competitiveness.”
Mayor Breed said, “Though things have changed fundamentally during this pandemic, we also know that San Francisco’s innovative and creative spirit is as strong as ever.”
