It’s almost time for football to return. In fact it’s never really ended if you want to count the XFL, USFL and Canadian Football League stringing together a schedule of games that has stretched from the Super Bowl until now.
But the king returns to the throne on Thursday night when the NFL kicks off its exhibition schedule with the Hall of Fame game. That’s the traditional snoozefest (the winning team has scored more than 20 points in just one of the last seven editions) that nonetheless draws a bevy of television viewers. Football junkies need their NFL fix, even if 90% of that game is played by guys who have a better shot at being in the XFL or USFL next spring instead of on an NFL roster this fall.
Bookmakers know of the public’s thirst for all things football and really have been ramping up the menu of proposition bets being offered on the NFL.
Let’s take a look at some of these props that have been posted at the three St. Louis-area legal walk-in parlors — Barstool (Argosy Casino in Alton), FanDuel (formerly called Fairmount Park in Collinsville) and DraftKings (Casino Queen in East St. Louis). And there are thousands of options:
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A fun one
Which team will score the most points this season?
Draftkings: Kansas City is the favorite (5-1 odds), followed by Philadelphia and Buffalo (both 8½-1) then Dallas (12-1). Detroit and San Francisco are next (14-1). On the other end, the bottom slot is shared by Indianapolis and Arizona (200-1 each). Tom Brady-less Tampa Bay is just ahead of those two, at 130-1.
Argosy: KC is the choice here, too, also at 5-1. But Philly is only 6-1 in Alton, with Cincinnati next (7½-1) followed by Buffalo (8-1) and San Fran (9-1). Arizona brings up the rear (250-1).
On the flip side
Which team will score the fewest points this season?
DraftKings: No, Indy and Arizona are not tied for the lead here, as would be expected given their odds to have amass the most points. While Arizona “leads” the way, at 6½-1, Tampa Bay is next (10-1). Then comes Indianapolis and Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay close behind (both 11-1). If you think the Chiefs are going to make a monumental slide this season, you can really cash in — KC is 400-1 to score the NFL’s least number of points.
Argosy: The Cardinals also are favored here to have the most anemic output in the league, at 5-1. Indy is next (7-1) followed by Tennessee (8-1) and Tampa Bay (8½-1). But if you are one of the few who think KC will bottom out, don’t make that bet here. While the Chiefs are the co-longest shots (along with Buffalo), the return is only 100-1. A successful $10 bet here (good luck with that) would reap a profit of $1,000. At DraftKings, it would be $4,000.
The big picture
How many points will be scored by all teams this season?
DraftKings: The East St. Louis shop has an over/under prop on this — 12,495½. You’d have to risk $110 to try to win $100 whichever way you go. There are 272 NFL regular-season games, so that number being offered breaks down to 45.9 points per contest.
Overtime outlook
DraftKings: The book has a couple props on overtime. The first one sets the o/u on the number of games this season that will go into OT at 19½, with the line shaded to the under (it’s -135, while the over is +105).
DK also is offering a bet on whether OT will fail to produce a winner, and it heavily favors “yes” bets. A person would have to risk $650 to try to win $100 if wagering that any of the 272 games will end deadlocked. “No” bettors would be rewarded with a 4-1 return.
Name game
All the area books are have posted a plethora of propulsions on statistics players will compile this season. There are some significant discrepancies between the shops — as usual emphasizing the importance of shopping for the best price. Here’s a look at a handful of big names:
Number of passing yards/TD passes for Aaron Rodgers:
The big saga of the NFL’s offseason was his move from the Packers to the Jets, and there is a difference of opinion among the bookies on how many yards he will throw for this season for his new team. The over/under is 3,800½ at FanDuel and 3,900½ at Barstool, with bettors having to risk -112 either way to try to win $100. DraftKings has the figure at 3,950½, -110 both ways.
For touchdown passes, FD has it at 27½ (-112 both ways), Barstool and DK have it at 28½. However, it’s -112 both ways at Barstool while DK has the over at -104, the under at -115½.
Number of passing yards/TD passes for Patrick Mahomes:
Big things again are expected from the Chiefs quarterback and reigning league MVP. FanDuel has his passing yardage at 4,650½ while Barstool has it at 4,750½ (-112 both ways at each of those books). DraftKings has hung the number at 4,800½, with the over at -105 and the under -115.
There also is a variance on touchdown passes between the houses. FanDuel has Mahomes at 35½ (-112 both ways), DraftKings has him at 36½ (-110 either way) and Barstool is at 37½ (over -105, under -118).
Number of rushing yards/running TDs for Derrick Henry:
The two-time NFL rushing champ is back with the Titans, and DraftKings has his yardage over/under at 1,150½ (-110 both ways), while FanDuel has him set at 1,175½ (-112 both ways).
FanDuel has the number of rushing TDs he scores at 8½ (-128 on the over, even money on the under) with DraftKings has Henry at 9½ (over -105, under -115).
Barstool had not posted a number. on either of these props.
Number of receiving yards/TD catches for Travis Kelce:
FD has the Chiefs tight end’s over/under for receiving yards at 1,075½ and Barstool has Kelce at 1,100½ (-112 both ways at those shops). DK has him at 1,150½ (over +115, under -140).
For TD receptions, all three books has him at 9½. However, there is a significant difference in the “juice.” DraftKings has the over at -130, the under at +110. FanDuel is-112 both ways and Barstool is -113 either way.
The Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles are the frontrunners from both the AFC and NFC, respectively.
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