Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 22.05. until Sun, 28.05
***
Record last week: 2-4 (Agg: 27-26)
Running differential last week: -1 (Total: +42)
Stand: 1st Place in AL Central (1.0 GA)
Last week’s game results:
Game 48 | SF 4, MIN 1: Ober Faceplants, Bats Can’t Pick Up
Game 49 | SF 4, MIN 3: Offensive and bullpen together cause a brutal loss
Game 50 | MIN 7, SF 1: Twins avoid sweep in error-filled blowout
Game 51 | GOAL 3, MIN 1: The lineup falters again as the crisis continues
Game 52 | MIN 9, GOAL 7: Twins Ride Rookies, Willi Castro to the big win
Game 53 | GOAL 3, MIN 0: Another embarrassing offense non-appearance
NEWS & NOTICES
The Twins are playing really badly at the moment and it’s getting worse, not better.
While the past week could have been argued that poor referee calls and unlucky breaks were the key factors in losing multiple winnable games, the past week has been one of undeniably poor play from start to finish. Even Minnesota’s two wins weren’t particularly impressive, as both sleepy teams shot the ball around on Wednesday and the Twins almost blew a huge lead on Saturday.
They’ve got to start tackling it and they’ve got to stop wasting time because the Tigers under .500 are suddenly on their heels, a game behind them at the Central. It would be nice if the good news started to outweigh the bad health news, but we’re not there yet.
The stall begins Trevor Larnach‘s career unfortunately goes on; The outfielder is now on the injured list due to severe pneumonia. The former first-round draft pick’s last two seasons have been hampered by injuries as he seeks to finally establish himself in the big leagues. He has struggled to perform consistently for the Twins this year and will now be out for a while, which is particularly unfortunate for Larnach given how well his replacement has done in a short span of time.
HIGHLIGHTS
Let’s start there: Matt Waller provided a crucial jolt for this occupation. He delivered one of the best individual offensive performances by a Twins all season on Saturday when he went 4-for-4 with a home run and three RBIs while also shooting down a second-place runner with a laser beam throw. Wallner followed up with two walks 2-on-2 on Sunday and hit base in all eight plate appearances between the two games.
The organization’s reigning minor league player of the year finally showed his full potential on the MLB stage, and at a crucial time, though ironically he was selected for logistical reasons after Sunday’s game.
The struggling twins begged for someone to step in, and it was the newcomers and roleplayers who answered the call. Wallner was not alone at the weekend.
Edward Julien joined the fun on Saturday with three hits, including two doubles and a home run. Earlier in the week he went deep against San Francisco, notching four walks in his six starts. A few rookie mistakes on the field and down the base paths brought out Julien’s greatest strengths – namely, a disciplined plate approach and tremendous raw power on the other end, and particularly down the center left.
Also contributed to Saturday’s night run burst (almost all of which was needed). Willie Castrowho, even on the fringes of the squad, makes a powerful argument, with an impact that makes it, one might say, “disturbingly valuable”.
While the limitations of his game won’t stop anyone from considering him a star, as we’ve seen of late, Castro’s defensive versatility and ability to organize a powerful, powerful attack on the plate make him a solid asset to do with he is well positioned to weather some tough squad decisions ahead.
Much like the lineup, some key plays keep the bullpen afloat while others fail and languish. The rising star of unity is Brock Stewartwhose surprise rise to become virtually the most trusted builder on the team for a burgeoning relief corps was life-saving.
Stewart still has 14 appearances to charge and he pulled off his greatest high-stakes acrobatic performance to date on Saturday, averting disaster by recording three outs to stave off an inherited late threat against Toronto. That outing gave him the best WPA in the Twins bullpen (.86) despite starting nearly a month into the season.
Yes, Stewart’s WPA actually outperforms John Duran, but there is no doubt who is the king of this unit. While less unexpected, Duran’s continued dominance is the stable foundation that is keeping the Twins’ bullpen from collapsing. He notched four strikeouts over 1 ⅔ clean innings this past week, contributing to his illustrious footprint in the record books. He set a new franchise record Wednesday by hitting 104.6 MPH with his fastball and also unleashed multiple triple-digit splinter hits in the same game.
Now that it’s become routine, I almost have to remind myself from time to time: This isn’t normal. This is something special. Duran is an incredibly rare breed and while there is still a lot of room for improvement around him in the bullpen, you couldn’t ask for a better centerpiece.
LOWLIGHTS
As this line-up consistently exhibits a sense of explosiveness and power, it becomes increasingly difficult to see past the player who should be their beating heart. Byron Buxton shook off some renewed knee pain to start all six games last week and did hit a home run on Tuesday but was a net negative overall, finishing 4 of 25 with the following performance off his home run: three singles, no runs scored , no RBIs, no walks, 10 strikeouts.
We all know Buxton is a mixed bag player by nature and analyzing him in the middle of a downturn like this is bound to underestimate his worth. But that gets to the heart of the matter, which is that Buxton’s winning streak doesn’t outweigh his streaks to the extent the team needs. Yes, he leads the team’s positional players in Win Probability Added – a poor performance in this roster – thanks to some great moments, but all too often those moments feel like oases in a desert of surrounding emptiness.
Last week was a perfect example. Buxton hit the home run but otherwise delivered a barrage of outs, stranded runners and substandard bats. He looks like he’s guessing full force on almost every pitch with no plan or protocol in place.
What makes Buxton’s recent fainting even harder to bear is the increasing discomfort of his situation and the side effects that result.
As short-cuts continue on offense and mistakes mount defensively, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to ignore the elephant in the room: Addressing Buxton’s needs means the Twins field one of their best defensive players at DH every day while they, in turn, are forced to skip underperforming batsmen (ie Michael A Taylorwho went 2-on-19 with 12 strikeouts last week) and make tough defensive concessions like playing Castro in midfield or Julien at second base.
Unfortunately, the situation shows no signs of changing. By all accounts, the Twins feel this deal is the only way to keep Buxton on the field and that’s hard to dispute in the wake of another knee crisis.
Minnesota needs Buxton in the lineup, but they can get him there as long as he’s healthy. You just need him to get better and find a way to mitigate those terrible slumps, even if it means taking a physical break. The same goes for of course Carlos Correa, who himself apparently dodged an injury scare last week but continues not to click the plate despite being completely off balance. After a 1-4 on Sunday, his slash line sits at .216/.308/.392 and he’s on track to finish the season with a 1.2 fWAR, which would be lower than Gary Sanchez released in 2022.
On the pitching side, George Lopez has officially established itself as a major problem. His brilliant April, in which he conceded no earned runs, has given way to a terrible May, in which the right-hander allowed an 8.10 ERA and a 1.042 OPS. His troubles worsened over the past week, with López conceding defeat on Tuesday when he kicked off a two-run home run and on Saturday threatening to turn a lopsided win on its head by giving up three earned runs , but no outs from Der Ninth.
Unfortunately, López looks just as confused as he did in the second half for the Twins last year. His confidence has waned and his body language on the hill was alarming. If there is one positive result it’s that his speed and everything is fine suggesting the issues might be solvable but I’m not sure how anyone who has watched him as a twin would have any confidence at all can have in his mental strength.
Given the pivotal role López played in the design of this bullpen, its implosion would have dire consequences if it continued like this. Durán (again) cannot carry the entire burden alone.
TREND STORY
Reinforcements are on the way. The team announced this after the game on Sunday Max Kepler And Royce Lewis will rejoin the team this week in Houston, with Garlick and Wallner being relegated to make room. Polanco also seems close after training on the field alongside Kepler on Sunday.
Swapping Kepler for Wallner isn’t the most exciting move given how well Wallner did and how mediocre Kepler has been over the last 20 years, but there was a small selection. What’s exciting is the much-anticipated return of Lewis, who is claiming to be at 120 percent after hitting an absurd .333/.371/.727 slash line with four homers and 10 in eight games at Triple-A laid down RBIs.
The twins are in desperate need of a spark. It’s hard to imagine that there are many people better able to do this on more than one level, while not wanting to put too much pressure on the child.
LOOKING AHEAD
If the Twins don’t start playing better baseball soon, things will get ugly. They travel to Houston for a three-game series against the dynastic (albeit underperforming Astros) and then it’s back home where they play four games against the Guardians, who could still be the biggest threat in the division in the long run .
MONDAY 5/29: TWINS @ ASTROS – RHP JP France vs RHP Sonny Gray
TUESDAY 5/30: TWINS @ ASTROS – RHP Brandon Bielak vs. RHP Joe Ryan
WEDNESDAY 5/31: TWINS @ ASTROS – RHP Hunter Brown vs. RHP Louie Varland
THURSDAY 6/1: GUARDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Tanner Bibee vs. RHP Pablo Lopez
FRIDAY 6/2: GUARDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Hunter Gaddis vs. RHP Bailey Ober
SATURDAY 6/3: GUARDIANS @ TWINS – LHP Logan Allen vs RHP Sonny Gray
SUNDAY 6/4: GUARDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Cal Quantrill vs RHP Joe Ryan
