San Francisco and the entire Bay Area lost populations in the second year of the pandemic, and California’s population continued to decline for the third straight year, according to state estimates released Thursday.
San Francisco saw a decline of about 4,400 people, or 0.5% of its population, between July 2021 and July 2022, a smaller decline than the 3.7% loss in population the previous year.
The city’s population was an estimated 834,046 people as of July 2022, compared with a pre-pandemic peak of 889,783 people in January 2020. This was the lowest level since July 2012, when emigration accelerated seven years of sustained growth fueled by a technology nullified Boom.
The lack of people has been particularly evident in downtown San Francisco over the past three years, with empty offices and BART and Muni trains, and closed restaurants and shops. The fiscal impact is devastating, with the city projecting a $728 million deficit over the next two years. In some ways, downtown San Francisco has had the weakest recovery from the pandemic in all of North America.
California’s population fell 0.54% to 39 million people, a loss of over 210,000 people. A sharp drop in migration to California and around 100,000 combined deaths from the coronavirus pandemic led to a statewide population decline for the first time in a century as of 2020.
The nine-county Bay Area saw some of the sharpest population declines in the state — from Napa’s loss of about 1,800 people to Santa Clara’s loss of over 16,500 people, second only to Los Angeles County’s 113,000 population slump.
San Francisco and the Bay Area’s losses were caused by net internal migration as many residents left the region and state to seek cheaper housing.
San Francisco lost about 8,700 people to internal migration; San Mateo lost 12,700 people; Contra Costa County lost 16,400 people; and Alameda lost 27,300. Santa Clara County, the Bay Area’s most populous county, lost 30,900 people to net internal migration, again the second-highest in the state behind only Los Angeles County. Santa Clara County’s losses were slightly larger compared to Orange County, a region with 1.2 million more residents.
That trend reflected many companies allowing employees to stay away, as well as affordability concerns, said Walter Schwarm, chief demographer at the California Department of Treasury, who published the report.
Schwarm expects California’s population growth to turn positive over the next few years as immigration picks up and the wave of emigration slows from the peaks of the pandemic, but he doubts it will return to the more than 1% growth rates that were seen have been recorded in the last century.
“The big growth era for California is probably over,” Schwarm said.
Widespread tech layoffs, affecting hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, could dampen population growth, although the number of layoffs in California remains unclear.
“A key engine of California’s economy is not hiring as aggressively anymore,” Schwarm said. That could lead to weaker immigration as fewer people come to the state for new jobs.
Birth rates in both California and the US have also declined as many young adults delay marriage and children to pursue higher education, he said. The cost of housing, education, and childcare, which are acutely expensive in the Bay Area, is also a major hurdle.
A decade ago, over half a million children were born in California each year. For the July 2021-2022 period, the number of births was only 423,768.
In addition to COVID deaths, the state’s baby-boomer-heavy population is also aging, resulting in a higher death rate, Schwarm said.
On a percentage basis, San Francisco had the smallest population decline among Bay Area counties, while Marin had the largest at 1.5%.
Yolo County saw the highest percentage and absolute population growth in the state at 3.2%, or nearly 6,900 people, which Schwarm attributed to UC Davis students returning to live on campus. Santa Barbara, Santa Cruz and San Luis Obispo counties also saw population increases attributed to student return, he said.
Lassen County saw the largest percentage drop in the state at 4.8%, or nearly 1,500 people, due to the closure of the Susanville state penitentiary. Plumas County saw a 2.4% population decline and Tuolumne County a 1.9% decline due to wildfires, Schwarm said.
Federal census data, which uses different methodology compared to the state, said San Francisco’s population declined even more sharply at 6.3% between July 2020 and 2021, the sharpest of any US city. The data for the following year will be published in a few months.
Schwarm said the disparity is due to state data collection, which includes students and other returnees, while federal data has a lag.
He said it was highly unlikely that California or the Bay Area would see sustained massive emigration now that the pandemic is under control and many people have settled into new homes following remote work changes.
“These trends were largely a one-off bullet of the pandemic,” Schwarm said. “Barring a massive tech meltdown, we should be getting back into positive territory.”
Roland Li and Yuri Avila are contributors to the San Francisco Chronicle. Email: roland.li@sfchronicle.com, yuri.avli@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @rolandlisf, @yag1310
