San Francisco Early Election Forecast

Voters Face Big Choices in November

San Francisco voters have a lot on their plate in November. Two contested supervisor races, three School Board seats and competing slates for Community College Board are joined by many high profile ballot measures. And if that’s not enough, November could also have a DA’s race between Brooke Jenkins and Chesa Boudin.

Here’s our early forecast.

D4 and D6 Supervisors

D4

Earlier this year I noted that despite belief in Gordon Mar’s D4 vulnerability that no strong challengers had emerged. Two now have, Leanna Louie and Joel Engardio.

If this remains the field of major candidates Mar faces a very tough race. Every debate will have two candidates challenging him while avoiding criticizing each other.

Louie is a relative newcomer to San Francisco politics but is said to be a tireless campaigner. Engardio ran a strong race in D7 in 2020 only to have his home redistricted to D4. He is a very strategic activist. He will do his best to ensure that his supporters and Louie’s make each other their second choice vote. A well coordinated ranked choice vote could overtake Mar’s likely lead in first place votes.

A Louie or Engardio victory would replace a solid progressive with the Board’s most moderate member.

D6

I earlier saw the Matt Dorsey-Honey Mahogany race as a tossup. Nothing has changed. The politics of the substantially changed D6 electorate remain unclear. There’s new district lines and so many incoming residents since 2018 that it’s a heavily changed electorate.

Mahogany backs policies similar to those promoted by Matt Haney. Dorsey has been aligned with Mayor Breed’s positions. Which do D6 voters prefer? We’ll know more as the campaigns unfold.

Local Ballot Measures

Returning Cars to JFK Drive

It’s been years since San Francisco has had so many high-profile ballot measures. Pre-vaccination COVID prevented signature gathering for initiatives but those days are gone.

Some measures are already easy to predict. This list starts with the measure to reopen JFK Drive in Golden Gate Park to cars—it will lose big.

It will lose big because Walk SF, the SF Bike Coalition, and thousands of activists have fought too long and too hard to allow a ballot measure to open JFK Drive to cars. No local campaign will have more volunteers than the “No” campaign against reopening JFK to cars.

Ending off-year elections

Another easy prediction is passage of the charter amendment to shift all local elections to even-numbered years. While opponents claim it connects labor contracts to mayoral elections and eliminates an election cycle for bonds, voters in many cities have backed this move. I urge this shift in Generation Priced Out because odd year elections inflate the voting clout of older white anti-housing homeowners while reducing the tenant vote.

This charter amendment must still be approved by six supervisors but it seems Mayor Breed is the only public opponent. If successful, the shift adds a year to her term.

Homeless Commission

I can also predict passage of the charter amendment creating a commission to oversee the Department of Homelessness and Supportive Housing (HSH). Sponsored by Supervisor Ahsha Safai, the measure is long overdue.

HSH was created without a commission despite its programs being previously under the Human Services Commission or the Health Commission. The lack of a commission has restricted public input into city homeless policies. It has also empowered unaccountable city staffers over those with far more knowledge and experience in the field.

Thanks to Safai’s leadership, voters will install a commission over homeless programs.

Vacancy Tax

Initiated by Dean Preston and the city’s DSA chapter, the vacancy tax should easily win. While some criticize its exclusion of vacant single family homes, potential supporters will not vote against it because of this omission.

While the vacancy tax marginally increases affordable housing funding, it’s been overhyped as a meaningful strategy for addressing San Francisco’s affordability crisis. It’s politically easier to pass a homeowner-protected vacancy tax than to try legalizing new apartment buildings in their neighborhoods.

Housing Wars

A coalition of pro-housing groups got tired of waiting for the city to expedite its housing approval process and qualified the Affordable Homes Now (AHN) measure for the November ballot. Mayor Breed and state housing champion Scott Wiener have endorsed it. The measure reduces San Francisco’s slowest in the state approval times from four years to six to twelve months. This is critical for improving the city’s affordability.

Projects using the AHN must add 15% more affordable units than otherwise required. But Supervisor Connie Chan and four additional supervisors are not satisfied with this increase; they are backing a rival charter amendment requiring 8% more affordable units than the AHN. AHN backers argue the rival plan—which still needs one more supervisor to qualify for the ballot—makes projects financially infeasible.

Will either win?

If sound housing policy were the test the AHN wins in a landslide. But in the real world of an overflowing November 2022 ballot its passage depends on how much money and endorsements the AHN draws in support and opposition. If the San Francisco Democratic Party opposes it—which is quite possible—passage will require an extremely well funded and effectively messaged campaign.

Chan’s proposal faces an uphill fight even with the local Democratic Party endorsement. Backers of AHN will oppose it and will be joined by NIMBY’s opposed to both measures.

Generation Priced Out argued that San Francisco’s glacial housing approval process promotes unaffordability. I hope the AHN wins. But nobody ever got rich betting on San Francisco voters backing new housing. The AHN measure is currently a tossup.

School board (3 seats)

The three School Board members Mayor Breed appointed to the Board following the recall are all running for full terms. The SF Guardians group that led the recall campaign strongly back all three. I see all three winning.

Community College Board (4 seats)

A rare San Francisco occurrence could happen in November: incumbent Community College Board members could be defeated. For decades those with name recognition and the SF Democratic Party endorsement coasted to re-election despite some paying little attention to their job. But the politics of CCSF have changed since the Board’s funding failures caused teachers and staff layoffs.

Susan Solomon, former president of the United Educators of San Francisco, Anabel Ibáñez, also formerly a UESF official, and Anita Martinez, once head of the college faculty union, are challenging CCSF incumbents. Also on the ballot is a parcel tax to bring CCSF to an estimated $45 million annually. The grassroots campaign for the parcel tax will boost the three candidates challenging incumbents’ mishandling of finances.

Incumbents John Rizzo, Thea Selby, and Brigitte Davila are also running as a slate. They are in deep political trouble.

Upzoning and Rent Control

I wrote about this proposed charter amendment on July 5 (“Upzoning and Rent Control: The Perfect Match”). The necessary six votes are still being secured.

Supervisors should not delay giving voters a chance to approve this charter amendment. Delaying adding tenant protections to upzoning plans will cause neighborhood by neighborhood fights over the issue and/or deny thousands of future residents basic tenant protections. Better to allow voters in November to decide the question.

A Jenkins-Boudin Race?

I think Chesa Boudin will run against newly appointed District Attorney Brooke Jenkins. This November is his best if not only chance to return as District Attorney. Assuming the charter amendment moving city races from 2023 to 2024 wins (see above), Boudin’s next chance to run would be November 2024. By that time Jenkins and her team will have earned enough public support to make a Boudin challenge unwinnable.

Adding to the likelihood of his running is that Boudin has a campaign team in place from opposing the recall. He’s got a team of people who have been fired by Jenkins; they don’t want to wait until 2024 for a chance to return to their jobs.

Further, San Francisco’s print media has continued its blatantly biased reportage on Jenkins. The publications that strongly opposed the recall want Boudin restored. They will help build a sense of “momentum” for him to run.

I’ve been incredibly impressed with Jenkins’ first week on the job. She has appointed a woman of color leadership team that contrasts with the former DA, a white male from Yale. I see public officials expressing alarm about the termination of many attorneys (which also occurred when Boudin took office). But many of these officials have never expressed concern about the Tenderloin families impacted by drug dealers. Dealers Boudin refused to prosecute.

I see Jenkins as very well positioned to win in November. But that could depend on the San Francisco Police Department more effectively doing its job. A DA who promises to close open drug markets won’t have success if the SFPD isn’t providing a visible presence to deter dealers.

When I toured the tenderloin with Jenkins last week no police officers were in sight. Few were visible even after the massive media coverage of the DA’s decision to spend her second day in office meeting with Tenderloin families (I did see photos of a closed drug market at 7th and Mission, so some progress outside the Tenderloin has already been made) .

As I wrote last week (“DA Brooke Jenkins Offers Hope to the Tenderloin”), reporters are readying stories on Jenkins’ failure to stop open drug dealing. The SFPD said the DA was the reason they weren’t moving to stop open drug markets in the tenderloin; now the police have to deliver.

Meanwhile, these San Francisco races will occur in a larger national political landscape. Many San Francisco activists will forego local contests to volunteer instead in the Central Valley and other parts of the state. Their goal will be helping Democrats keep control of the House. Swing California seats could play a critical role in deciding this.

So activists need to prepare for an all out fall blitz. We have a wild next few months ahead.

Randy Shaw

Randy Shaw is the Editor of Beyond Chron and the Director of San Francisco’s Tenderloin Housing Clinic, which publishes Beyond Chron. Shaw’s latest book is Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America. He is the author of four prior books on activism, including The Activist’s Handbook: Winning Social Change in the 21st Century, and Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century. He is also the author of The Tenderloin: Sex, Crime and Resistance in the Heart of San Francisco

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